ALN NEGLECTING DISGRUNTLED LIBERALS

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 000125 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/16/2017 TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM NU SUBJECT: ALN NEGLECTING DISGRUNTLED LIBERALS Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d) ¶1. (C) Summary: The Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN) is missing an historic opportunity to capture disgruntled Liberal voters from the Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC), claims Liberal Matagalpino Eugenio Rodriguez. According to Rodriguez, Liberals in key northern areas are upset with the PLC for "lying" during the recent national elections campaign, but the ALN structure virtually "disbanded" after the elections and no one is picking the low-hanging fruit. He does not believe that the PLC will reform from within and oust its discredited leadership, although some National Assembly deputies and local leaders may be "salvageable." End Summary. ¶2. (C) Poloff met with Liberal Matagalpa city councilor Eugenio Rodriguez on January 16 to discuss the future of the ALN and the PLC in Nicaraguan politics after the elections. During the pre-election campaign, Rodriguez created an organization (GANARAM) within the PLC to support Eduardo Montealegre, the presidential candidate for the ALN. He indicated that he no longer considers himself part of the PLC. Although he has not formally joined the ALN, he clearly supports this party and the leadership of Montealegre. ¶3. (C) Rodriguez agreed that the PLC misinformation campaign regarding Montealegre's candidacy -- especially the 11th-hour distribution of false letters of resignation -- caused many Liberals sympathetic to the ALN in Matagalpa, Jinotega, Nueva Segovia, and other northern areas to waiver and vote for PLC candidate Jose Rizo in an effort to defeat Daniel Ortega. Once the PLC's deception was revealed after the election, however, these voters felt betrayed by the PLC. Rodriguez commented that these voters are ready to support the ALN, but ALN officials are nowhere to be seen in the northern regions, having redirected their focus to business and professional activities. ¶4. (C) Rodriguez does not believe that the PLC's "internal restructuring" will lead to substantive changes. Although he appreciated Rizo's post-election remarks calling for convicted PLC chief and ex-President Arnoldo Aleman to leave the party, he agreed that Rizo no longer exercises much influence in the PLC. Rodriguez mentioned that some PLC deputies may be pulled away from Aleman, specifically naming fellow Matagalpino Freddy Torres and ex-Foreign Minister Francisco Aguirre Sacasa. ¶5. (C) Rodriguez equivocated when asked how the ALN should select candidates for the 2008 municipal elections. He said that the 2006 national primaries to select deputy candidates had "left a bad taste" in his mouth since many of the winners had their positions "adjusted" to make room for alliance members. Rodriguez commented that "the people don't believe in polls," although they might work if the sample size was large enough. He agreed in principle that the ALN should use a transparent method of selection, but then noted that it is better to have a "loyal dog" who will stick with the party. Rodriguez mentioned the example of Horacio Brenes, the PLC First Councilor in Matagalpa who joined the FSLN after receiving a substantial bribe. Rodriguez claimed that the FSLN had offered him personally $50,000, a scholarship for his daughter, and a job for life in exchange for abandoning the Liberals during the campaign, but he refused. ¶6. (C) Comment: We have heard from several contacts that many in the PLC are uncomfortable with the ongoing PLC-FSLN political pact and Aleman's continued domination of the greatly weakened party. ALN deputy Eliseo Nunez, Sr. will provide us with a list of PLC deputies who may be willing to vote independently. Barring a full implosion of the PLC, however, the ALN must work harder to win over Liberal votes before the 2008 municipal elections. TRIVELLI