IN SEARCH OF OPPOSITION UNITY - PART II

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 001195 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/08/2017 TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM NU SUBJECT: IN SEARCH OF OPPOSITION UNITY - PART II REF: A. MANAGUA 1174 ¶B. MANAGUA 1028 Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d) ¶1. (C) Summary: The group of prominent democrats introduced in ref B reports that they are planning a major declaration of opposition unity some time in late May. Despite past declarations of support from the three defeated ex-Presidential candidates however, several seem to be waffling in their commitment to the project. Nevertheless, the group is confident that they can convince Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN) leader Eduardo Montealegre and Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC) ex-candidate Jose Rizo to make a joint declaration, while leaving the door open for the Sandinista Renovation Movement (MRS) to join the alliance in the future. End Summary. ¶2. (C) DCM hosted a cocktail on May 7 to discuss opposition unity plans with a group of prominent democrats that included Jose Adan Guerra, Mauricio Mendieta, Mauricio Diaz, and Alfredo Cesar (ref B). The group tentatively plans to organize a press event on May 14 or 21 to announce an alliance of the three ex-Presidential candidates, although Edmundo Jarquin and Jose Rizo appear to be waffling in their commitment to the project. ¶3. (C) Mendieta recalled a recent conversation with Jarquin, during which the MRS ex-candidate explained that only about half of his party supports joining an opposition alliance with the ALN and PLC -- and the entire party is against any process that includes convicted PLC leader Arnoldo Aleman. Mendieta opined that the "radical" element of the MRS, including Assembly deputy Monica Baltodano, is inherently opposed to any alliance with the Liberals. Guerra agreed, commenting that the MRS is afraid of losing credibility with the larger Sandinista movement and described the MRS and FSLN as "brothers temporarily estranged by a family dispute." Cesar reiterated that Jarquin is personally interested in the project and may be "putting on the brakes" to gain more time for negotiations. ¶4. (C) Jose Rizo, abandoned by the PLC leadership after the elections, also appears to be vacillating after initial expressions of support. Mendieta mentioned that Rizo did not accompany Montealegre on a recent visit to Matagalpa because he did not want to give the impression that he had defected to the ALN. Guerra and Diaz commented that many in the PLC are sympathetic to Rizo, who they see as used and discarded by the party leadership, and who could potentially attract many Liberals tired of Aleman's pacts with the FSLN, but unwilling to leave the party. ¶5. (C) The group agreed that Montealegre is facing considerable pressure from within the ALN to negotiate with Aleman. Cesar specifically mentioned ALN deputies Jamileth Bonilla, Eliseo Nunez, Sr., and Indalecio Rodriguez as favoring closer ties with Aleman. All concurred that Montealegre would lose a large bloc of key independent voters if he makes a deal with Aleman. ¶6. (C) Ambassador and DCM encouraged the group to plan an event outside of Managua and feature PLC local leaders and Assembly deputies who would support Rizo, making the point that Rizo could be discredited completely unless he can attract credible PLC leaders to his side. Ambassador also suggested that they approach the private sector, which has used opposition disunity as an excuse to withhold funds. Cesar responded that many in the private sector, especially "big capital," have been making deals with Ortega and are not interested in rocking the boat. ¶7. (C) Comment: As usual, the main players in the unity project are refusing to fully commit. Cesar suggested, and we agree, that unless the project can gain traction in the next few weeks, competing groups will emerge to take the initiative -- possibly insisting on Aleman's inclusion. Should that occur, the Liberals would lose support from independent voters and any hope of forming an alliance with the MRS. TRIVELLI