MADRIZ - ORTEGA PROMISES REMAIN UNFULFILLED

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 001183 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA/CEN SCHIFFER E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2017 TAGS: KDEM ECON PGOV PINR NU SUBJECT: MADRIZ - ORTEGA PROMISES REMAIN UNFULFILLED REF: A. 06 MANAGUA 2423 AND PREVIOUS ¶B. MANAGUA 01069 Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli for reasons 1.4(B,D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Citing higher gas prices, no new jobs, and political favoritism, the citizens of Somoto and Totogalpa, Madriz spoke to the Ambassador of growing dissatisfaction with President Ortega's administration. While local opposition leaders are talking, they have not unified or capitalized on the population's discontent. Aggravating the situation is the Sandinista National Liberation Front's (FSLN) wholesale replacement of local technocrats with untested party supporters in local government offices and its party bias in selecting families for Ortega's new Zero Hunger program. Although the region receives sizable remittances and generous financial support from sister cities, the underlying economy is weak. Since January, hundreds of area residents have left the country in search of work. Although local business and political leaders believe a free trade zone is essential to development, they have taken virtually no action over the past several years to make it so. Despite spending US$2.5 million on projects in the region, U.S. visibility is scant. Leaders encouraged the U.S. to stay engaged in Nicaragua using an "approach of respect" centered on "positive messages and positive signs." END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) On April 29 and 30, Ambassador visited the northern department of Madriz to participate in a variety of meetings and events in the departmental capital, Somoto, and the town of Totogalpa. In Totogalpa, the Ambassador attended three USAID-funded activities, including the inauguration of a tomato and vegetable packing plant, the opening ceremony of the first annual tomato festival, and the ribbon-cutting ceremony of a new discount pharmacy. In addition, during the two-day visit, the Ambassador met with the mayors of Somoto and Totogalpa, local representatives from the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN) and Sandinista Renovation Movement (MRS) political parties, the civil rights advocacy NGO Ethics and Transparency (EyT),a Totogalpan indigenous group and a group of women's ceramic cooperatives. The Ambassador also met with the presidents of the local Chamber of Commerce and Coffee Growers Association and the priest of the Somoto Catholic church, and gave interviews with two local radio stations - "Radio Frontera" and "Que Buena." Free and Fair Elections, but... - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (SBU) Somoto EyT director Uriel Antonio Garcia reported that the November 5 elections were free and fair thanks to the presence of observers from the US Embassy, Carter Center, EU, and EyT in the department's voting centers. He commented that the police did an excellent job with security, allowing the people to vote in a safe and calm atmosphere. Further, Garcia assured the Ambassador that all votes were counted, there were no irregularities during the counting/closing process, and that the "fiscales" (party observers) were vigilant. However, as was consistently reported throughout the country during the campaign process, Garcia confirmed that voter card issuance (cedula) had been a problem during the campaign, citing that nearly 1 in 4 applicants did not receive their ID card before November 5 (reftel A). (NOTE: On November 5, the FSLN received 31,773 votes to the PLC's 25,831 and the ALN's 9,503 votes. The FSLN won in 8 of Madriz' 9 municipalities, only losing to the PLC in Totogalpa. END NOTE). Opposition Forces Should Unify - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (C) The Liberal Constitutionalist Party (PLC) mayor of Totogalpa along with ALN, MRS, EyT, and business community representatives unanimously agreed that the opposition parties must set aside their differences and form a single national opposition party for the 2008 municipal elections. They all acknowledged that a strong, unified opposition is the only way to stave off disaster in next year's elections. Even with unity, they admitted, gaining the upper hand in local elections will be a daunting task given the FSLN's formidable discipline and funding. Catholic priest Fruto Valle added that, regardless of unification, the Liberal opposition will have a tough time winning hearts and minds in the region after 16 years of neglect by the three previous Liberal administrations. He commented that throughout this time, while the Liberals did nothing, the Sandinistas -- working through their well-organized network of NGOs and using international funding -- helped the population by building roads, clinics, stadiums, etc., giving the Sandinistas a strong advantage in the region. (COMMENT: Until recently, Valle was known as a staunch PLC/Aleman proponent. Thus, it is interesting that he openly admits the failures of previous administrations -- including Aleman's -- to address the region's woes. END COMMENT). First 100 Days - Ortega "Fails to Deliver" - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (SBU) Asked about their satisfaction with the Ortega administration thus far, there was near universal agreement that President Ortega has not fulfilled his campaign promises of cheaper prices and full employment. Of particular concern are the rising prices of gasoline and diesel. Quoting unemployment figures as high as 80 percent, local leaders characterized the overall economic situation as "desperate" and "very, very bad" in rural areas. MRS representative William Ortega opined that "thousands" of people in the Somoto area had left the country since the start of the year looking for work in El Salvador, Costa Rica, Spain, and the U.S. ¶6. (SBU) Business leaders, the mayor of Totogalpa, and ALN, MRS, and EyT representatives all decried alleged discrimination in public sector employment. They insisted that the Ortega administration was "cleaning house," removing any non-Sandinistas from public service jobs -- regardless of experience and expertise -- and replacing them with party loyalists. Business leaders were especially critical of this practice, stating that new officials were "not qualified" and that the process of changeover was highly "disorganized," creating an atmosphere of uncertainty and confusion in their communities. Further, they agreed that the new government agency representatives were "non-responsive." As a result, the overall business climate is uncertain. Sister City Relations Key to Survival - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶7. (SBU) Remittances and bi-lateral unofficial assistance received from sister cities in France, the U.S., and especially Spain, mask the local economy's underlying troubles, according to the participants. All were quick to acknowledge that generous financial support from Somoto's Spanish sister city had paid for schools, churches, and parks, among other things. In addition, the mayor of Somoto detailed an "exchange" program through which over 1,000 women from the greater Somoto area had gone to work as domestic employees in the Spanish sister city, providing a much-needed source of income through remittances. (NOTE: When queried about this exchange program, other participants scoffed, indicating that it was not a formal program, and its success questionable. Many women had taken out loans against property and houses to finance their trips only to return -- now with an outstanding loan -- after failing to find jobs. The Ambassador raised concerns about trafficking in persons given the lack of oversight or control over the exchange, but participants did not believe it to be a problem. END NOTE.) ¶8. (U) According to the mayor of Somoto and others, the assistance of sister cities skewed the region's income so much that Madriz' economic classification was upgraded in the last census, reducing assistance from the Nicaraguan government. As a result, insisted the mayor, the region's suffering is worsening. Program "Zero Hunger" Seen as Political Tool - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶9. (C) As one of Nicaragua's poorest regions, Madriz was selected for the Ortega administration's new "Zero Hunger" program, which gives up to $2,000 worth of direct assistance and vouchers per family to facilitate self-sufficiency. Approximately 300 families in Somoto and 100 in Totogalpa were selected for the program. While there was general agreement that the program could cause jealousy and rivalry within the communities, Totogalpa's PLC mayor, Carmen Mercedes Hurtado, as well as ALN and MRS representatives, claimed the selection process is politicized. Although participants are nominated by the mayors, explained Hurtado, the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAGFOR),as the implementation partner, makes the final decisions. She and others claim that Sandinista supporters have "found it easier to qualify" for final selection. Hurtado also claimed that NGOs involved in the implementation are Sandinista. Further, Hurtado questioned the program's potential effectiveness in Madriz given that participants must own at least one hectare of land to qualify, excluding the landless -- the poorest of the poor -- from participating. Universal Interest in Free Trade Zone - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶10. (SBU) Asked what could be done to improve the economic situation in Madriz, there was unilateral support for the establishment of a free trade zone (FTZ) to absorb the excess labor supply and jump-start the economy. All believed that Somoto's proximity to the Honduran border, good road system, strong agricultural base, and ample supply of labor make the region a prime candidate for FTZ investment. Despite these apparent advantages, in the last six years, only one attempt has been made to contact FTZ authorities in Managua and no one has ever approached ProNicaragua, a Managua-based investment promotion NGO. The Ambassador urged action on both fronts, remarking that without action there cannot be results. The Ambassador also encouraged them to focus on products that play to the region's natural strengths -- such as food-based production -- instead of garment factories. Opposition to 7-year Term Proposal - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶11. (C) Given recent discussions by the Ortega administration and PLC to extend mayoral terms to seven years (reftel B) to coincide with the 2011 presidential elections, Ambassador sought input from the mayors, business leaders, EyT, and the ALN and MRS representatives. There was strong opposition to the proposal from everyone but the Sandinista mayor of Somoto, Marcio Ariel Rivas Nunez, who answered that the "transition of governments is hard" and that "he would have to think about it." Despite commenting that the ALN and PLC "would be dead" if elections were held in 2008, and that extending the period might give opposition forces a "better chance," Hurtado held firm that dividing national and municipal elections "is better for democracy." Garcia soundly rejected the idea as an "error" from a legal standpoint, opining that such a move "might confuse voters." U.S. Visibility Poor - Lacks "Personal Touch" - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶12. (C) Despite US$2.5 million in USAID projects in the departments of Madriz and Nuevo Segovia, there is little awareness or recognition of U.S. efforts in the region. In fact, the department's 12 Peace Corps volunteers are the most visible symbols of U.S. assistance. While Hurtado laid the blame on the department's Sandinista majority, claiming that they won't acknowledge any work done by non-Sandinistas, others provided more reasoned explanations. Nunez reminded the Ambassador that U.S. visibility is impeded by the strong presence of Somoto's Spanish sister city. Other participants cited Madricenos' peculiar tendency to associate projects with individuals and if no Americans are directly involved in implementation, the people will not associate a project with the United States. Advise to US - Stay Positive, Stay Engaged - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶13. (C) Participants urged the U.S. to stay engaged and to "keep working even if you don't want to" to maintain positive relations, in spite of Ortega's anti-U.S. rhetoric. Business leaders asked the U.S. to maintain a "long-term perspective on the relationship" while EyT's Garcia emphasized that the U.S. should take an "approach of respect" centered on "positive messages and positive signs." He stated that the Nicaraguan people have heard enough negative rhetoric, which only feeds uncertainty and fear. Comment - - - - ¶14. (C) Notwithstanding alleged disillusionment among the populations of Somoto and Totogalpa -- and perhaps the other municipalities of Madriz -- due to higher fuel prices, no new jobs, and a Sandinista-bias in the Zero Hunger program, Liberals readily admitted that they face a serious challenge in the 2008 municipal elections. There was general agreement on the need to unify the opposition parties, but no clear ideas on how to achieve it. Further, there was no evidence of homegrown unified initiatives to take advantage of the FSLN's particular weakness in Madriz, despite the opportunity. Lack of funds -- and perhaps lack of guidance from party leaders in Managua -- is certainly an important factor. While these local branches maintain contact with Managua, without funding it is all they can do to simply keep their doors open. While national unification is symbolically important, opposition party leaders should prioritize and support unification efforts at the municipal level where political party leaders have shown a willingness to work together to select the most viable opposition candidate and where specific pre-election strategies can be developed to target localized FSLN weaknesses. TRIVELLI