FORO LIBERAL SEEKS LIBERAL UNITY VIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 001069 SIPDIS SIPDIS WHA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/26/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM NU SUBJECT: FORO LIBERAL SEEKS LIBERAL UNITY VIA MUNICIPALITIES AND THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY REF: MANAGUA 1036 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D). ¶1. (C) Eight Liberal Forum (Foro Liberal) members, who invited the Ambassador, DCM, and PolCouns to meet over breakfast on April 24, are seeking to foster Liberal unity at the municipal level and through the National Assembly's Nicaragua Liberal Alliance (ALN) and the Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC) caucuses. While the Foro lost much of its wind before the 2006 elections when divisions arose between members favoring the ALN candidate and those supporting the PLC option, after what all members concur was a "disastrous electoral outcome," they are now attempting to regroup and serve as financers and facilitators of opposition unity efforts. ¶2. (C) Margarita Sevilla Sarmiento, who chaired the session, concurred with the Ambassador that Liberals are not tangibly further along in their efforts to unite than they were over a year and a half ago. The group also agreed that as long as Arnoldo Aleman rules the PLC, it will not reform, and deserves its nickname, "Partido Zancudo" (the mosquito, or bloodsucker, party). Sarmiento attributed much of the dilemma to Nicaraguans' growing "relativism" of their values and a disregard for rule of law, probably in an effort to adjust to adversity and uncertainty from decades of dictatorial regimes. ¶3. (C) Sarmiento termed the recent Foro-sponsored meeting between seven PLC-associated mayors who reject Aleman's pact and the Ambassador (Ref A.) a "modest success." Foro members offered that only pressure from the party bases at the municipal and departmental levels will convince the PLC leadership that Aleman's time at the helm must end, and that his presence poses the main obstacle to Liberal, and broader, opposition unity. They agreed that the 2008 municipal elections, if Ortega does not find a way to postpone them, present a window of opportunity to the opposition to chip away at the Sandinista National Revolution Front's (FSLN) local power base and to form a viable political front in preparation for the 2011 national elections. ¶4. (C) Foro leaders were receptive to the information we provided on a professional mediator, Mexican-Salvadoran Francisco Xavier Hernandez Velazquez, who could facilitate negotiations between the two estranged Liberal caucuses to create a common legislative agenda, independent from Aleman and his master Ortega. They indicated that the Foro might cover the expenses of the mediator and the sessions, and agreed that U.S. technical legislative assistance would round out the effort. ¶5. (C) Comment: This somewhat philosophical meeting with the Liberals brought to mind the old Nicaraguan saying that Nicaragua is a land "where cork sinks and lead floats." The high tolerance for "moral relativism" and disregard for rule of law, especially among Nicaragua's traditional political elites, is a bane to the country's democratic evolution. Reform-minded politicians who promote transparency in government and refuse to play mafia politics invariably fall victim to fabricated charges by the FSLN-PLC pact-controlled judiciary sector, which attempts to drag them down to the lowest, corrupt denominator. A national pastime is divisive Machiavellian, "zero sum" politics, in which it is preferable to allow a mediocre, autocratic candidate to win an election if doing so blocks a more capable, democratic competitor. TRIVELLI