SPAIN: TOUR D'HORIZON WITH MFA LATIN AMERICA UNDER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MADRID 000338

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FOR EUR/WE; WHA FOR A/S TOM SHANNON AND PDAS CHARLES SHAPIRO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/30/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL SP
SUBJECT: SPAIN: TOUR D'HORIZON WITH MFA LATIN AMERICA UNDER
SECRETARY


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Classified By: DCM Hugo Llorens for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)


1. (C) Summary: Over lunch, the DCM and MFA State Secretary
for Latin America Trinidad Jimenez engaged in a review of the
situation in Latin America. Jimenez sees the region as
emerging from a very dynamic political and electoral season
in 2006. Spanish objectives in 2007 are to help manage the
change and achieve stability while promoting democracy, rule
of law and extensive Spanish economic interests. While
recognizing the difficulties, she remains upbeat about Latin
America's prospects and expressed optimism that the region's
two natural leaders Brazil (with Lula) and Mexico (with
Calderon) would help balance the threats emerging from
Venezuela and Bolivia. On Cuba, she admitted that the Spanish
government was privately holding high level conversations and
under consideration was a visit to Havana by FM Moratinos,
but only if "conditions were right." The DCM responded that
we wanted to work closely with Spain and the EU on supporting
a democratic transition in Cuba, but suggested that a
Moratinos visit could be unhelpful and that a surprise
announcement could lead many in Washington to conclude that
communication had broken down on matters related to the
island. Jimenez stressed that no final decision had made on
a visit; DCM urged her to closely consult with us. Jimenez
also said she plans to visit Washington with an interagency
team in April. When DCM raised recent unhelpful comments by
President Zapatero on the US role in Latin America, Jimenez
acknowledged that the US had contributed extensively to
democracy, civil society and human rights in the region. End
Summary


2. (C) During a luncheon with DCM, joined by PolCouns and
Jimenez chief of staff Juan Carlos Sanchez Alonso, MFA State
Secretary for Latin America Trinidad Jimenez displayed a

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wide-ranging command of Latin America issues. She has moved
rapidly since her appointment several months ago to develop
and deepen key contacts in Latin America through extensive
travel to the region. She wants to hold another session of
the US-Spain Latin America Working Group in New York on the
margins of UNGA this September, in addition to a trip to
Washington in April she would like to undertake as the leader
of an interagency Spanish team to discuss both political and
economic aspects of Latin America policy.


3. (C) Jimenez sees the region as emerging from a very
dynamic political and electoral season in 2006. Spanish
objectives in 2007 are to help manage the change and achieve
stability while supporting democracy, rule of law and
extensive Spanish economic interests. While recognizing the
difficulties, she remains upbeat about Latin America's
prospects and expressed optimism that the region's two
natural leaders Brazil (with Lula) and Mexico (with
Calderon) - would help balance the threats emerging from
Venezuela and Bolivia. Jimenez sees the Southern Cone as a
fulcrum of stability and predicts continued strong growth in
Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay. She also expressed
optimism about Central America and lauded the Central America
Free Trade Area (CAFTA) as a very positive development. She
says intense "roll up your sleeves" diplomacy is needed in
Nicaragua, but believes that Daniel Ortega can be kept in the
democratic box. Jimenez described Peru as a model for what
can be achieved and believes Alan Garcia's leadership and
example will be important to the Andes and beyond.


4. (C) DCM noted Spanish President Zapatero's comment on the
desirability of Cuban democracy during a January 24 speech,
saying that Washington had appreciated this public
affirmation of Spain's ultimate objective in Cuba, and hoped
that more Spanish commentary along these lines could be
expected. However, other elements of Zapatero's speech
contributed to a broader European misunderstanding of the
current US role in Latin America and the huge amount of
funding and efforts the US has provided over many decades in
support of democracy, civil society and human rights in the
region. DCM noted that both Spain and the US in the past
have had negative images in Latin America, but that during
the current Administration, US support for Latin America has
doubled to $1.6 billion--and in fact during recent
Administrations this type of assistance enjoyed wide
bipartisan support in Washington. He also pointed to the
President's upcoming trip to the region as evidence of our
strong interest in Latin America beyond commercial/economic
interests.


5. (C) Jimenez acknowledged the positive US role in Latin
America on democracy-building, elections monitoring and
related issues; she noted, however, that Spain's historical
problems in Latin America took place much farther in the past
than those of the US. She said that her government very much

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welcomes and supports WHA A/S Shannon's approach in Latin
America (she called it the "Shannon Doctrine") and
appreciates his willingness to consult with Spain through the
US-Spain Latin America working group. She pointed to Spain's
contribution of $700 million in development assistance in
recent years and said that the GOS had created her post a few
months ago in order to provide a more strategic, integrated
focus on Spain's policies in Latin America. She recently
chaired a conference for Spanish Chiefs of Mission at Latin
American Embassies adding that she plans to invite A/S
Shannon to address the conference later this year, probably
in July. Jimenez said she wanted to lead an interagency
Spanish team for meetings in Washington in April as part of
the Working Group. She also urged agreement on another
working group meeting under the margins of UNGA in September
as had been held during the previous two UNGA sessions. DCM
agreed both would be very useful and undertook to convey
these ideas to Washington.


6. (C) DCM raised rumors we are hearing on the diplomatic
circuit in Madrid that Moratinos may visit Cuba in the near
future. She admitted that the Spanish government was
privately holding high level conversations and under
consideration was a visit to Havana by FM Moratinos, but only
if "conditions were right." The DCM responded that we wanted
to work closely with Spain and the EU on supporting a
democratic transition in Cuba, but suggested that a Moratinos
visit could be unhelpful and that a surprise announcement
could lead many in Washington to rightly conclude that
communication had broken down on matters related to the
island. Jimenez said that no final decision had been made on
a visit and that she was looking forward to working closely
with Assistant Secretary Tom Shannon on common initiatives
including on Cuba.


7. (C) Jimenez also said that she herself would visit Cuba
soon after having a rocky start with the Cuban government
over her own previous strong comments about the Cuban human
rights situation when she was International Affairs Director
for the Socialist party and charged with liaison functions
with Cuban dissidents.


8. (C) DCM expressed disappointment that Spain had not
delivered on its promise to develop an EU statement on a
democratic transition in Cuba, nor on a joint US-Spain
statement. He said Zapatero's line in the January 24 speech
was helpful but that the Cuban government needed to hear a
strong message loud and clear from the international
community about what the outside world expects as the Cuba
moves into a new phase.


9. (C) Jimenez agreed that Castro would no longer command in
the island, but saw no move to a genuine transition until
Castro physically passed from the scene. She said that the
GOS believes that the current Cuban leadership fear reprisals
and want protections and guarantees before they make any
moves to open up the political and economic system. The GOS
wants to help the Cuban government manage the change.


10. (C) Discussion during the luncheon also touched on a
number of other key issues:

--Nicaragua: Jimenez said there is a better than even chance
that Ortega can be kept in the democratic box. She noted the
greeting he gave to the US delegation during his inauguration
was a sign that he wanted to have channels open with the US.
She agreed with DCM's observation, however, that if Nicaragua
went bad, this would have serious repercussions in all of
Central America.

--Ecuador: Spain is working intensively with Correa and
Jimenez herself has met with him three times. She pointed to
some success to Spanish efforts, saying the GOS had helped
convince Correa not to close down the Ecuadorian Congress.
She noted the debt issue as the key problem looming over
Correa and his government.

--Brazil: Brazil is feeling its oats as a larger power and
Lula is doing the right things, according to Jimenez.
Jimenez said that Lula needed to provide more active
leadership in the region to balance Chavez and Morales. She
noted that unlike Cardoza, Lula has been more ambivalent
about assuming a more forceful leadership to counter Chavez;
both Jimenez and DCM agreed Lula should be encouraged to do
so, and that assuming responsibility is a price of its power
in the region.

--Argentina: Jimenez agreed that the US policy of "strategic
patience" with Kirchner is finally playing out positively and

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that Argentina is now moving in the right direction. Both
Jimenez and the DCM agreed that Kirchner's brand of populist
politics and temperament would assure "good days and bad
days," but that the trend line was in the right direction.

--Mexico: Though a great admirer of Calderon, whom she
deemed as the best of the current group of younger leaders in
Latin America, Jimenez said that the Mexican system's
weakness and corruption could hamper any prgess Calderon
hoped to make. However, she sees that Mexico and Brazil must
work together, as the region's two natural leaders, to
contain Chavez and anti-democratic populism. DCM noted that
the recent breakup of a key drug cartel was a good message to
those who benefit from the drug trade and its inherent
corrosive influence.

--Guatemala: Jimenez expressed serious concern about
Guatemala, particularly because of the intensity of the drug
trade. DCM said that this drug trade had a huge impact on
Spain because much of the cocaine and other drugs from
Colombia traveled through Venezuela and Central America to
Spain. For this reason, the US had a strong relationship
with the Spanish Interior Ministry and police on drug issues
and Interior Minister Rubalcaba was interested in the kind of
international, interagency approach to monitoring drug routes
the US has take with Joint Task Force South (JTAF) in Key
West, where Spain has a representative. DCM also mentioned
that Spain will host the International Drug Enforcement
Conference (IDEC) in several months -- one of the major
groupings of its kind and the first time the conference would
be held outside of Latin America.

--Peru: She sees Peru as a positive force in the troubled
Andean region and praised the leadership of Alan Garcia.

Comment: Jimenez clearly has taken charge of her portfolio
following some concern after her appointment that she and
Deputy Foreign Minister Bernardino Leon, who had previously
held the portfolio, would clash over turf. Embassy has
developed good contact with her over the years, including
during her time as International Affairs Director for the
PSOE party. Jimenez is an IV grantee and speaks excellent
English. She also maintains a hand in Spanish politics, as a
protege of former PSOE President Felipe Gonzalez, and one of
the early small group of supporters who helped Zapatero win
the party leadership in 2000. We support her visit to
Washington in April in a time frame that suits A/S Shannon,
and believe continued strong ties by Washington and Embassy
Madrid with Jimenez are a necessary element of US-Spain
consultations on Latin America.
AGUIRRE