MADRID WEEKLY ECON/COMMERCIAL/AG UPDATE - DECEMBER

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MADRID 002292 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/WE AND EEB/IFD/OMA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EFIN EIND ELAB ELTN KIPR PGOV TBIO SP SUBJECT: MADRID WEEKLY ECON/COMMERCIAL/AG UPDATE - DECEMBER 17-21 REF: MADRID 2236 MADRID 00002292 001.2 OF 003 Table of Contents: ECON: Per capita GDP passes Italy,s ECON/EFIN: How long can high current account deficit continue? ECON: Solbes criticized for inflation remarks ECON/ELAB: Labor, business confederations agree on 2 percent 2008 wage increases EFIN/PGOV: 2008 budget approved ELTN/PGOV: Senate censures Public Works Minister KIPR: "Digital Copying Charge" renewed, modified EIND/ELTN/EFIN: Four Spanish bids expected on Pennsylvania Turnpike concession EFIN/EIND/KIPR: More companies considering IPOs EIND: Major Galicia companies anticipate creating new jobs in 2008 ETRD/TBIO: Call for EC investigation of U.S. biodiesel exports PER CAPITA GDP PASSES ITALY'S ¶1. (U) The PSOE government can point to another piece of good news on the economic front as the campaign approaches. Eurostat statistics for 2006 showed Spain's per capita GDP passing Italy's for the first time. This puts Spain in eighth place among the 13 Euro countries, with a per capita income 5 percent below the Eurozone average but 5 percent above the broader EU average. GDP and GDP per capita have steadily grown faster than the European average over the last decade. HOW LONG CAN HIGH CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT CONTINUE? ¶2. (U) Observers believe that in 2007, Spain's current account deficit may reach 10% of GDP. The question that many analysts have asked for several years is how long can Spain, a member of the euro currency union, continue to run such high current account deficits? The Spanish Foreign Trade Institute commissioned a dozen economists to try to answer that question. Their essays were recently published by the Madrid College of Economists. The short answer to the question, yet again, is that nobody really knows. Before Spain's adoption of the euro, the economists calculated that a current account deficit on the order of about 5% of GDP would produce downward pressure on the former currency, the peseta. However, well after the current account deficit passed the 5 percent level, Spain continued to receive investment and Spanish companies continued to raise money on international capital markets with ease. So it is not exactly clear through which mechanism Spain would adjust its current account deficit downwards. However, the current account deficit is being financed through massive borrowing by both consumers and firms. A possible adjustment could happen at the point when accumulated debt reaches such dangerous levels that Euro Zone creditors begin to establish interest rate differentials and credit limits on Spain. The resulting credit squeeze would force a slowdown in economic activity and a consequent narrowing of the balance of payments gap. Another possibility is for FDI and portfolio investment to decline and Spanish companies to find it more difficult to issue bonds. Highly qualified commentators and analysts regularly argue that Spain's current account deficit is "unsustainable," but nobody has a perfect explanation for the mechanics of forcing an adjustment. (El Pais, 12/17/07) SOLBES CRITICIZED FOR INFLATION REMARKS ¶3. (SBU) The Second Vice President and Finance Minister suggested on December 17 that one reason inflation is relatively high is that Spaniards have still not internalized the value of the euro and, for instance, leave a one-euro tip for two cups of coffee that cost a euro each. The PP immediately pounced on Solbes, who attempted to make light of the remarks a day later. (Comment: Solbes is conceivably on to something, but he undoubtedly opened himself up to charges of insensitivity. Inflation is shaping up to be a real election issue. This was a rare gaffe on Solbes, part.) (Expansion 12/17-18/07) LABOR, BUSINESS CONFEDERATIONS AGREE ON 2 PERCENT 2008 WAGE INCREASES ¶4. (U) The CCOO and UGT labor confederations and the CEOE employers' confederation agreed on a 2 percent wage increase for 2008, matching the government's inflation forecast. The contracts included clauses guaranteeing maintenance of employee purchasing power in case inflation is above the MADRID 00002292 002.2 OF 003 expected rate. (El Pais 12/17-19) 2008 BUDGET APPROVED ¶5. (U) On December 21, the Congreso (lower house) approved the government's 2008 budget, overriding the Senate's earlier "veto" by a 182-165 total. The governing PSOE was able to obtain enough votes from smaller parties to reach a majority despite the impending electoral campaign, which gives the smaller parties incentives to distance themselves from the government. SENATE CENSURES PUBLIC WORKS MINISTER ¶6. (SBU) The Senate voted on December 18 to approve a non-binding resolution calling for the resignation of Minister of Infrastructure and Public Works Magdalena Alvarez. The Minister has been widely criticized in Catalonia this year for electricity blackouts, delays in the completion of the Madrid-to-Barcelona high-speed rail line, and accidents in the construction of that line that blocked service on three of Barcelona's seven commuter rail lines for six weeks. While the resolution has no practical impact, it is a symbolic victory for the opposition Partido Popular (PP). The resolution passed because the PP has more seats in the Senate than the governing PSOE, and all the other parties abstained. In the more important Congreso, the PSOE has more seats than the PP and was able to attract the votes of enough other parties to defeat a similar motion by 3 votes on November 27. On November 16, the Catalan Autonomous Community legislature passed a similar motion. Alvarez became the first minister to be censured by either a regional legislature or the Senate since the return to democracy. She is a longtime ally of President Zapatero, who is not expected to replace her before the election. "DIGITAL COPYING CHARGE" RENEWED, MODIFIED ¶7. (U) After a week of controversy, the Congreso approved on December 20 a revised version of the "canon digital," a charge on digital copying, storage, and playing devices. The canon, which dates from 2003, is an attempt to compensate authors, editors, and distributors for the copies individuals are allowed by Spanish law to make for their personal and private use of protected intellectual property. The government's approved proposal reduced the charges on some devices, such as CD/DVD recorders, CD-ROMs and DVD-ROMs, maintained charges on other devices, and imposed new charges on mobile phones, USB memory and MP3/MP4 players. The previous week, the Senate had unexpectedly approved an amendment calling on the government to eliminate the canon within a year, but the Congreso voted down that amendment. The canon is not a major issue for the USG, as several U.S. content providers are among those who benefit, and internet downloading is a greater concern. However, we are concerned about claims by some users that having paid the canon gives them the right to download unlimited copies of intellectual property. FOUR SPANISH BIDS EXPECTED ON PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE CONCESSION ¶8. (U) Four Spanish companies or groups of companies have prequalified to bid on the planned concession of the 532-mile Pennsylvania Turnpike. One consortium includes ACS subsidiary Iridium, Isolux, and Banco Santander, along with Citi and the Swiss bank UBS. Another includes Cintra, a subsidiary of Ferrovial. The other two are Abertis and Global Via, a joint venture of FCC and the Caja Madrid savings bank. The concession, expected to be the largest in the U.S., is expected to require 18 billion dollars in investment. MORE COMPANIES CONSIDERING IPOs ¶9. (U) Undeterred by the volatility of world stock markets, several Spanish companies are seeking to emulate last week's IPO of 18 percent of Iberdrola's renewable energy unit that valued the full unit at 33 billion dollars. The Eolia wind and solar power group is expected to offer between 20 and 25 percent of its shares sometime in the first quarter of 2008. The firm, which is expected to be valued at just under a billion euros, has 40 projects with a potential generating capacity of 1,325 megawatts from wind and 64 from solar. A quarter of the firm's capacity is in Mexico. Separately, as many as four pharmaceutical biotechnology companies could issue shares in 2008, some of them on the soon-to-open Alternative Stock Market aimed at smaller companies. MADRID 00002292 003.2 OF 003 MAJOR GALICIA COMPANIES ANTICIPATE CREATING NEW JOBS IN 2008 ¶10. (U) Expansion plans in Galicia are going as planned despite fear of economic difficulties. The 10 largest companies with headquarters in Galicia - Inditex, PSA Peugeot Citroen, Constructora San Jose, Pescanova, Finsa, Coren, Gadisa, Caixa Galicia, Banco Pastor and Caixanova Galicia - anticipate creating more than 2,000 jobs next year to accommodate their expansion plans. Of the companies, the Inditex clothing firm is programmed to create the most jobs worldwide at 11,000, of which only 100 will be located in Galicia. (El Pais 12/17) CALL FOR EC INVESTIGATION OF U.S. BIODIESEL EXPORTS ¶11. (U) Why did U.S.-produced biodiesel (B99) exports to Europe increase tenfold in one year? Because of U.S. subsidies, according to the European Biodiesel Board (EBB). Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson now has 45 days to consider launching an investigation into U.S. biofuels subsidies and dumping after receiving a formal complaint from the EBB. B99 Biodiesel blends classify as "organic chemicals" in Europe, because they contain from 0.1 to 1 percent petroleum-based diesel. As a result, European importers do not pay import tariffs. In addition, U.S. biodiesel producers reap a U.S. subsidy of a dollar per gallon regardless of where the biodiesel is used. As a result, the EBB claims that imported U.S.-produced B99 blends undercut EU producers' prices by up to 150 euros per ton. The EBB alleges that European B99 imports soared from 100,000 tons in 2006 to one million tons this year. Spanish biofuels producers have expressed concern that these U.S. exports are unfair competition. AGUIRRE