MADRID WEEKLY ECON/COMMERCIAL/AG UPDATE - DECEMBER

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MADRID 002216 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/WE AND EEB/IFD/OMA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EWWT KIPR PARM PGOV SP SUBJECT: MADRID WEEKLY ECON/COMMERCIAL/AG UPDATE - DECEMBER 3 - 7 MADRID 00002216 001.2 OF 003 Table of Contents: ECON/PGOV: Highlights from EIU conference EWWT/PARM: GOS to expand Megaports nuclear detection technology to 28 ports EWWT: GOS concerned about economic impact of Maersk shipping reorganization KIPR: Counterfeiters detained in "Operation Glamour" HIGHLIGHTS FROM EIU CONFERENCE ¶1. (U) The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) held its 19th Business Roundtable with the GOS in Madrid on December 4. The EIU tried with mixed success to get the high-level participants to talk about the prospects of a hard landing versus a soft landing scenario for the Spanish economy. President Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero essentially repeated a previous talk that contained a barrage of positive statistics for the Spanish economy during his tenure in office. He emphasized the increased investment in R&D in Spain as a percentage of GDP and higher levels of spending on capital goods - the implication being that Spain is changing its growth model from one based on construction and private consumption to one based more on innovation and higher productivity. He announced that if the Socialists won, they would probably abolish the wealth tax. Zapatero repeated his opposition to nuclear power but said that "if it (was) necessary, there will be nuclear power," and surprised his mostly pro-nuclear audience by saying three times that he was not a "fundamentalist" on the topic. He denied that he was in favor of "national champions" but said that the energy sector presents "singular" characteristics. He extolled his government,s success in controlling spending and praised the Minister of Public Administration, Elena Salgado, who was in the audience, for her success in controlling pharmaceutical spending when she was Minister of Health. ¶2. (U) Labor and Social Affairs Minister Jesus Caldera said that social security finances were in good shape, roughly 20 employer-labor agreements had been concluded during the Socialist government,s term of office, there were comparatively few strikes, and, most importantly, 2.9 million new jobs had been created and the number of unemployed people had gone down by about 500,000. Economist Europe Editor John Peet suggested that Spain still had more work to do in terms of making the labor market more flexible though and cited the example of Denmark. Caldera responded strongly and said that Denmark,s reported labor market success was a myth. He claimed that that Denmark actually had more long-term unemployed than Spain. Most importantly though, Denmark,s employment participation rate (the percentage of people employed) was much better than Spain,s because many women in Denmark work part-time. He conceded that Spain should do more to encourage part-time work. ¶3. (U) Industry, Tourism and Trade Minister Joan Clos highlighted the higher R&D spending during Zapatero,s tenure, although he said that Spain was still far from meeting the Lisbon target and that the private sector needed to assume a greater share of overall R&D spending relative to the public sector. In responding to a question about national champions, he denied that Spain promoted them but like Zapatero said that the energy sector was special. Clos emphasized the need for better vocational training in Spain and decried the cultural bias toward university, rather than vocational, education. Conservative opposition Partido Popular (PP) leader Mariano Rajoy said the PP,s economic stewardship during 1996-2004 had been stellar, especially given the bad economy the PP had inherited from the Socialists in 1996. He said that if elected in March 2008, the PP would concentrate on six areas: 1) strengthening the independence of regulatory institutions; 2) improving fiscal policy; 3) increasing R&D spending; 4) focusing energy policy on conservation and renewables; 5) more spending on physical infrastructure; and 6) improving the labor market by, among other things, making the work/life balance easier and making it possible for people to work beyond the mandatory retirement age without losing benefits. ¶4. (U) Bank of Spain Governor Miguel Ferndandez Ordonez gave a rather standard talk about how Spain was resisting financial market turbulence because Spanish banks were not significantly exposed to U.S. sub-prime mortgage backed instruments. Spain,s budget surplus of 1.8% of GDP also provided an important buffer. However, he conceded that there were two big risks that could conceivably lead to a harder, rather than softer, landing for the Spanish economy. First, he said that he did not believe that the global MADRID 00002216 002.2 OF 003 economy was as "decoupled" from the U.S. economy as some observers have speculated; hence if there is a bigger than anticipated sub-prime mortgage driven downturn in the U.S. economy, that would affect the Spanish economy negatively. Second, if the price of oil and the euro continued to rise, that could have also have negative effects for the Spanish economy. He noted that Spain was relatively more vulnerable to higher oil prices than other big European economies. The EIU,s Charles Jenkins said he believed that Spain was more susceptible to a hard landing than many officials and analysts posited because Spain,s current account deficit amounts to about 9% of GDP and housing construction (just residential building) also accounts for about 9% of GDP. Fernandez Ordonez disagreed. He said Spain was beginning to make progress on reducing its current account deficit. Besides, in a monetary union, financing is easy. Most importantly, Spain has macroeconomic flexibility because it has a budget surplus and public sector spending still only accounts for about 39% of GDP. ¶5. (SBU) Comment: A couple of things stood out from this conference. First, with the Socialists promising to abolish the wealth tax (Zapatero said it mostly affected the middle class, as the rich could avoid it),the PSOE is indeed tacking to the center. In fact, the leader of Izquierda Unida (the successors to the Communist party) said on December 4: "It is the world in reverse, the PP announcing tax cuts for salaried workers, and the PSOE tax cuts for the rich." Actually, the PSOE move reflects the highly middle-class nature of Spanish society; over 80% of Spanish households are homeowners. Second, the ostensibly more free market alternative, the PP, is not aggressive in its economic proposals. For instance, Rajoy said nothing about nuclear power or more freedom to hire and fire. Third, Mariano Rajoy demonstrated once again that his forte is not public discussion of economics. Fourth, Spaniards of both major political persuasions appear to think the good times will continue for Spain, although growth might taper off a little bit. Fifth, nobody seems to have a good idea of how long a member of a monetary union can continue to finance high current account deficits. Many prestigious commentators such as Charles Jenkins say that it is not sustainable for countries to run current account deficits on the order of 9% of GDP indefinitely, even if they are members of a monetary union. EconOff asked Jenkins how this non-sustainability might be transmitted to the Spanish economy. He said through lower investment levels, but he was quite vague as to how or when this might happen. Moreover, as Jenkins himself conceded, if investment levels in Spain decline, that will likely improve the current account deficit. End Comment. GOS TO EXPAND MEGAPORTS NUCLEAR DETECTION TECHNOLOGY TO 28 PORTS ¶6. (SBU) The GOS continues to work with DOE/NNSA and the Embassy to expand the Megaports program to additional ports in Spain. The Megaports program aims to equip and assist foreign countries with the technology needed to detect illicit nuclear or radiological material being shipped or exported from their ports. This program has been partially implemented in the port of Algeciras, Spain,s largest port by volume. In a meeting December 5 with NNSA Megaports and Embassy representatives, Spanish customs officials explained that they were planning to expand the technology to 28 of Spain,s most significant ports. They further noted that they would pay for all Megaports-type equipment despite prior offers from NNSA to provide some of this costly equipment. The GOS officials requested, however, that NNSA Megaports officials continue to serve as advisors to Spain on the implementation of this program, specifically in the ports of Barcelona and Valencia. ¶7. (SBU) In a related discussion, Spanish customs officials noted that they were continuing to experience difficulty in implementing the Megaports program in the Port of Algeciras due to union resistance and other issues related to scanning of transshipment cargo. While in most ports of Spain this problem would be insignificant, the port of Algeciras experiences an unusually high volume of transshipment cargo (cargo which is neither exported nor imported, but which is transferred from an incoming vessel to an outgoing vessel). Embassy officials will continue to engage with port officials to determine if this issue can be favorably resolved. GOS CONCERNED ABOUT ECONOMIC IMPACT OF MAERSK SHIPPING REORGANIZATION ¶8. (SBU) According to Spanish customs officials, the Maersk MADRID 00002216 003.2 OF 003 company, which operates the port of Algeciras and is a major shipper to Spain, is undergoing a cost-cutting exercise that may ultimately result in the transfer of Maersk operations from Spain to Morocco, China, or the UAE. Spanish customs said the GOS was very concerned about this possibility, which would greatly impact Spanish ports and the jobs associated with Maersk shipments. This movement would likely result in a significant decrease of transshipments through Spain and would also impact the Container Security Initiative and Megaports operations ongoing at the port of Algeciras, where Spain receives its greatest volume of shipments. Spanish Customs added that Maersk,s reorganization not only concerned Spain, but concerned the EU on a broader scale for its potential impact on other significant ports in Europe. COUNTERFEITERS DETAINED IN "OPERATION GLAMOUR" ¶9. (U) In a recent raid, the Civil Guard and the Madrid Municipal Police confiscated machinery used in falsification of name-brand clothing. A group of nine Senegalese, Spanish, Moroccan, and Chinese citizens have been detained for falsification of goods in the Fuenlabrada and Torrejon districts of Madrid. The agents have also confiscated 409,000 counterfeit articles with a street value of 15 million euros in "Operation Glamour." The falsification machinery is capable of producing in an eight-hour workday 21,000 labels for items such as belts, bags and shirts that are imported from Asia. (20 minutos 11/28/07) AGUIRRE