MADRID WEEKLY ECON/AG/COMMERCIAL UPDATE - NOVEMBER

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MADRID 002155 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS EUR/WE EEB/IFD/OMA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EFIN ELAB ETRD KIPR PTER SOCI TBIO SP EINV SUBJECT: MADRID WEEKLY ECON/AG/COMMERCIAL UPDATE - NOVEMBER 19-23 MADRID 00002155 001.3 OF 002 Table of Contents: PGOV: Solbes indicates he will likely stay if PSOE wins March 2008 election ECON: PP proposes big tax cut for lower-paid EINV: Investment in Latin America declining as share of foreign investment, but still important to largest companies SMIG/ECON: Immigrants to Spain account for largest outflow of remittances from EU EAGR: Analysts predict low world wheat stocks despite record production EIND/TBIO: Colgate toothpaste recalled after bacteria found EAGR: 130,000 Barcelonans consume carcinogens in water BEXP: Travelodge to "reign in Spain" ETRD/EINV: Bilateral investment agreements with West African nations SOLBES INDICATES HE WILL LIKELY STAY IF PSOE WINS MARCH 2008 ELECTIONS ¶1. (U) There is much media speculation that Second Vice President and Finance Minister Solbes will run for a parliamentary seat, perhaps as the number two to President Zapatero in the Madrid area. (Comment: Getting Solbes to stay, and to run, is all about shoring up the PSOE's centrist and center right voters.) (El Pais, 11/ 19/07 and 11/20/07) PP PROPOSES BIG TAX CUT FOR LOWER-PAID ¶2. (SBU) The opposition PP proposes that workers or retirees earning less than 16,000 euros (USD 23,360),up from the current threshold of euros 9,000, be exempt from paying income tax. That would mean roughly 7 million people who currently pay taxes would not have to do so. The PP is also proposing to reduce taxes for households in which both spouses work outside the home. The PP says that controls on spending plus the "supply-side" effect of the tax cuts would over the long run pay for the tax cuts. Second Vice President and Finance Minister Pedro Solbes initially said he did not think the PP proposal was "a very brilliant idea." He said the proposal omitted crucial details, such as whether the euros 16,000 included non-work income, and added that the cost of the PP proposal could amount to 1.5% of GDP, i.e. virtually wipe out Spain's budget surplus. However, he later indicated that the government might also reduce taxes on low earners as long as the surplus was sufficient. (Comment: This is another indication that the race is clearly on and that economic issues will be a significant feature of the electoral debate. Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the PP's gambit is that it focuses on the lower paid, which is reminiscent of the approach taken by Sweden's conservatives. It appears that that the PP is making good on its pledge to make economics a more central part of its message to voters.) (El Pais, 11/19/07; Expansion, 11/20/07) INVESTMENT IN LATIN AMERICA DECLINING AS SHARE OF FOREIGN INVESTMENT, BUT STILL IMPORTANT TO LARGEST COMPANIES ¶3. (U) During the 1993-2000 period, almost half of Spain's foreign investment went to Latin America. During the 2001-2006 period, the percentage dropped to about 18%. Much more investment went to the U.S., Europe and Asia, a trend that has continued in 2007. However, some large Spanish companies' Latin American operations are extraordinarily profitable. For example, in 2006, 55% of BBVA's profits, 37% of Santander's profits, and 33% of Telefonica's profits came from Latin American subsidiaries. Indeed, Latin America represents high risk but a high return for Spanish firms. These are Spain's three largest companies as measured by stock market capitalization. (Comment: The profitable Latin American operations affect major Spanish corporations' stock values, so Latin America still has an outsize importance for the Spanish economy. Over time though, the trend is clear. Latin America is becoming relatively (not in absolute terms) less important to the Spanish economy. For cultural and political reasons though, Spain will still likely continue to show a special interest in Latin America.) (El Pais, 11/18/07) IMMIGRANTS TO SPAIN ACCOUNT FOR LARGEST OUTFLOW OF REMITTANCES FROM EU ¶4. (U) In 2006, immigrants in Spain sent 5.6 billion euros to countries outside the EU. The equivalent number for the UK was 4.7 billion euros, for Italy it was 3.7 billion euros, and for Germany it was 2.0 billion. (El Pais, 11/19/07) MADRID 00002155 002.3 OF 002 ANALYSTS FORECAST LOW WORLD WHEAT STOCKS DESPITE RECORD SPANISH PRODUCTION ¶5. (U) Even with this year's record wheat production in Spain, world wheat analysts are forecasting 30 year low world wheat stocks for the current marketing year (MY). Analysts cite continued strong consumer demand that has exceeded weather-reduced production since MY 2000/01, and strong prices for crops that compete for wheat-production acreage as the reasons for the record-low stocks. Ukrainian, Canadian, Australia, and European (with the exception of Spanish) farmers took the brunt of weather-related crop reductions during MY 2007-08, while U.S. wheat producers produced an excellent crop. ¶6. (U) Consumers in Spain and all other rich developed countries continue to demand high-quality processed wheat products, in spite of recent price increases. Currently, Spanish wheat traders import more North American (U.S. and Canadian) hard spring red wheat than traders in any other European country. They import this very high quality wheat, because millers need it to blend it with locally-produced inferior-quality wheat used in bread and pastry products. ¶7. (U) While current world wheat stocks are sufficient to cover current demand, another weather-reduced world wheat crop could push currently very high prices into chaos. All wheat analysts, traders, Government officials, and savvy milers will remain focused on weather-related developments, including Spain's current lack of rain, during the coming year. COLGATE TOOTHPASTE RECALLED AFTER BACTERIA FOUND ¶8. (U) The Galicia autonomous community government pulled Colgate Herbal White toothpaste off the shelves in Galicia after detecting toxic bacteria in 9 tubes. This substance is normally found in fecal matter. (20 minutos) CARCINOGENS IN WATER OF 130,000 BARCELONANS ¶9. (U) Barcelona Public Health agency head Joan Guix announced that 8% of the city's population (130,000 residents) consumes water that may cause cancer "with accumulation and over many years." Water from the Llobregat river contains a concentration of trihalomethanes higher than the maximum allowed, 150 micrograms per liter. The amount of this chemical, which is generated in the process of making the water potable, sometimes reaches 156.6 micrograms. The distribution company Aguas Ter-Llobregat, affirmed that its water meets "all health requirements imposed by the sanitation authorities." A public health agency study notes that matters will not change until a reversible electrodialysis treatment plant that will reduce the level of these chemicals in the water begins operation, scheduled for ¶2009. There also are plans to desalinate the river Llobregat, which would improve water quality. (20 minutos) TRAVELODGE TO "REIGN IN SPAIN" ¶10. (U) Budget hotel Travelodge announced Monday, November 19 that it will open 100 sites in Spain and create 2,000 new jobs. The company currently has three pilot sites in Madrid and Barcelona and plans to include Valencia, Malaga, Zaragoza and Bilbao in its expansion. The company will aim for the domestic low-budget market. (The Sunday Times) BILATERAL INVESTMENT AGREEMENTS WITH WEST AFRICAN NATIONS ¶11. (U) The GOS is promoting West Africa as an investment destination, in part in an effort to reduce the flow of illegal immigrants from the region. Ministry of Industry, Tourism and Trade Joan Clos led a delegation of 60 companies including executives from energy, agro-business, infrastructure and tourism companies, to Angola and Senegal. Minister Clos signed a bilateral investment agreement with Angola and was scheduled to sign one with Senegal. This is the continuation of the government's "Plan Africa," which was launched last year to strengthen political and economic engagement with the West African region. The GOS is also negotiating an investment agreement with Mauritania. LLORENS