ETA ATTACK: FIRST DEATH CONFIRMED, ZAPATERO FACING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MADRID 000017 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/02/2017 TAGS: PTER PGOV SP SUBJECT: ETA ATTACK: FIRST DEATH CONFIRMED, ZAPATERO FACING POLITICAL FALLOUT REF: A. MADRID 6 ¶B. MADRID 1 ¶C. 2006 MADRID 3111 MADRID 00000017 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Hugo Llorens, reason 1.4 (D) ¶1. (C) Summary. Authorities confirmed late on January 3 that they had located the body of Ecuadoran immigrant Carlos Alonso Palate in the wreckage of the airport parking garage bombed by ETA on December 30. Alonso Palate becomes the 818th victim of ETA terrorism and the first ETA victim since May 2003. Sources close to President Zapatero said that he would appear before Parliament to discuss his "new anti-terrorism strategy," as Popular Party (PP) leader Mariano Rajoy continued his criticism of Zapatero's handling of the attack and other PP figures speculated that Zapatero wants to maintain a dialogue with ETA. An ETA expert told us that ETA may have forshadowed the attack to Socialist Party (PSOE) negotiators in a secret meeting in Ankara, but the PSOE representatives may have misinterpreted the warning. ETA's normally disciplined political front group Batasuna appeared to be in disarray, with one of its leaders saying only ETA could explain the rationale behind the attack, while another insisted that there was no proof that ETA had undertaken the bombing and that the Basque peace process remained viable. A Batasuna leader said the attack had been "completely unexpected," but failed to condemn the bombing. End Summary. //AUTHORITIES LOCATE BODY// ¶2. (U) Police located the body of Carlos Alonso Palate in his vehicle, which had been on the lowest level of the five-floor garage destroyed by an ETA bomb on December 30. Crews continue to search for the body of Diego Armando Estacio, a second Ecuadoran immigrant who was in a separate section of the garage. There are now reports of a possible third victim, an Uruguayan traveler whose family has reported missing. Alonso Palate is the 818th victim of ETA violence and the first since May 2003, when ETA killed two police officers in Navarra. President Zapatero met with the families of both victims, following criticism by one of the families that he had not contacted them for days following the attacks. Zapatero also faced criticism for not having visited the site of the bombing, which is expected to cost over $40 million to rebuild, making it the most costly ETA attack ever in economic terms. ¶3. (U) The Government took several steps to tighten security in anticipation of possible additional attacks. The Ministry of Defense ordered increased security for all of its units and the Basque Regional Government and the national Government increased personal protection for politicians considered to be under threat by ETA. According to one press report, there is concern that ETA has shifted its technology, making current countermeasures against explosive devices less effective. //ZAPATERO TO SPEAK BEFORE PARLIAMENT// ¶4. (U) PP leader Mariano Rajoy harshly criticized the Zapatero Government's response to the ETA attack, saying Spain was "like a boat without a helmsman." Rajoy, who had joined Madrid PP leaders in making an early visit to the site of the bombing, called upon Zapatero to address Parliament to explain his counter-terrorism policies. Socialist (PSOE) leaders countered that the PP should demonstrate unity with the Government rather than criticizing Zapatero, pointing out that former President Aznar had not appeared before Parliament when ETA broke its truce with his Government in 1999, nor had the PSOE asked him to. Nevertheless, just hours later, sources close to the Zapatero Government told Spanish media that he would appear in Parliament "once all of the facts were available" to discuss his strategy. Socialist politicians discussed the possibility of establishing a new counter-terrorism pact to broaden its current pact with the PP. Rajoy argued that the PSOE had broken the PP-PSOE pact by engaging in talks with ETA and called on the PSOE to re-implement the existing pact rather than open it to renegotiation simply to include other political parties. MADRID 00000017 002.2 OF 003 Some PP leaders expressed concern that Zapatero intends to maintain contacts with ETA in spite of the bombing. Meanwhile, the moderate Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) reconfirmed its support for the Government's decision to suspend negotiations with ETA. //ETA MAY HAVE WARNED PSOE// ¶5. (C) Oscar Beltran (strictly protect),a journalist in the Basque Region who has covered ETA for over 20 years, told Poloff that ETA negotiator Josu Ternera may have warned PSOE negotiators in mid-December that ETA would carry out "actions," but that these actions were not intended to disrupt the peace process. News reports indicate that Ternera, accompanied by his son and by ETA member Ainhoa Ozaeta, held a secret meeting in Ankara on December 15 with Basque PSOE leader Jesus Eguiguren and two unnamed PSOE figures, during which the participants made no progress, but also did not break off negotiations. Beltran speculated that the PSOE negotiators in this meeting may have misinterpreted Ternera's warning to mean that ETA would escalate vandalism and street violence, as it had done in October and November. Beltran said that police sources in Paris indicated that the French authorities had expected an ETA attack before the end of the year, fears that evidently were not shared by the Spanish leadership. //ETA SUPPORTERS AT A LOSS// ¶6. (U) Batasuna leaders emphasized their position that the Basque peace process was "more important than ever" and continued to accuse the Government of failing to move forward on the negotiations and even insisted that there was no proof that ETA had carried out the bombing. But there were also signs that internal Batasuna discipline was fraying. Asked to characterize the airport bombing, Batasuna spokesman Pernando Barrena said that it was "up to ETA to interpret (the attack).... we have no doubt that what ETA has to say to the Basque people about this incident will be very important." Another Batasuna leader, Joseba Alvarez, acknowledged that the bombing had created serious problems and said that "nobody had expected" the bombing. There were numerous reports that Batasuna leader Arnaldo Otegi had wanted to be more critical of the attack in his December 30 press conference, but had been overruled by more hard line members of the organization. ¶7. (C) Beltran, the Basque journalist, said that there was tremendous confusion within ETA's support groups because ETA had yet to issue an official declaration regarding the bombing. He said that ETA had been expected to issue a declaration on January 2, but since that failed to take place Batasuna and other ETA supporters were simply falling back on standard extremist rhetoric. Beltran said that the December 30 bombing had severely demoralized Basque society and politicians across the political spectrum, who are bracing for further ETA violence. ¶8. (U) In a signal that Spanish judicial authorities intend to ramp up pressure on ETA's political front groups, prosecutors denied a request by Otegi to attend a conference in Germany and asked police to prepare a report on the actions of Batasuna leaders on the day of the bombing. Otegi is free on bond, but faces large fines and 15 months in prison for slandering King Juan Carlos and for leading a 2003 ceremony to honor dead ETA fighter Manuel Benaran Ordenana. In addition to Batasuna, six other ETA front groups face judicial action on terrorism-related charges. //COMMENT// ¶9. (C) If it were confirmed that ETA negotiator Josu Ternera had issued any kind of warning to Socialist negotiators prior to the attack, it could prove a political bombshell for Zapatero. The PP would be able to point to this incident as proof that the Zapatero Government was either incompetent in handling the negotiations with ETA or weak in not immediately pushing back on the ETA threat. Even if this particular incident does not gain traction in the media, Zapatero's uncertain handling of the aftermath of the explosion has MADRID 00000017 003.2 OF 003 already damaged his standing. The PSOE is now focused on organizing a response that both demonstrates toughness and neutralizes PP criticism. The need for Zapatero to make a strong and credible presentation before Parliament appears to be increasingly necessary if the PSOE is to stem the bleeding. A possible approach may be for the PSOE to seek to create a new "anti-terrorism pact" that includes smaller leftist and nationalist parties, particularly if the PP opts out of a pact for reasons that appear petty or partisan. The PP feels vindicated in its frequent warnings to Zapatero not to engage ETA and is in no hurry help Zapatero achieve a graceful solution to his political predicament. LLORENS