MADRID WEEKLY ECON/AG/COMMERCIAL UPDATE REPORT -

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MADRID 001555 SIPDIS SIPDIS EUR/WE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAGR ECON EFIN EIND ELAB ENRG ETRD KIPR PTER SENV, SP, EINV, UK SUBJECT: MADRID WEEKLY ECON/AG/COMMERCIAL UPDATE REPORT - AUGUST 6 MADRID 00001555 001.2 OF 003 Table of Contents: EFIN: Madrid stock market suffers fifth biggest loss in its history on Friday, August 10 EFIN: Spanish economy up by 4.1% ECON/ENRG Abengoa buys Brazilian Dedinia Agro ELAB/ECON Salaries' share of GDP declining ECON: Telefonica (Vivo) acquires Brazil's Telemig and Amazonia Cellular KIPR: Editorial supports Indian court judgment against Novartis EIND/ECPS: Telefonica to face populist opposition to expansion in Latin America ENRG: New GOS law will allow offshore construction of wind farms ENRG/EIND: Gamesa reports strong financial results ECPS: Post office to be fully integrated by 2008 EAIR: Madrid Barajas airport increasing in international prominence EAGR: EC requirement will cause higher grain and oilseed prices TSPA: NASA receives positive coverage SIPDIS MADRID STOCK MARKET SUFFERS FIFTH BIGGEST LOSS IN ITS HISTORY ON FRIDAY, AUGUST 10 ¶1. (U) The Madrid exchange lost 2.59% of its value on Friday. Banks and real estate groups lost most value. What is happening in Spain is similar to what is happening in other major equities markets. The major Spanish banks continue to say they are not overly exposed to the American subprime market, but analysts are not sure. Local commentators overwhelmingly approve of the European Central Bank,s injection of liquidity into the system. Next week is likely to be volatile as well for the Madrid stock market. (Cinco Dias, 8/10/07) SPANISH ECONOMY UP BY 4% ¶2. (U) The Bank of Spain says Spanish economy grew by 4.1% during the second quarter of 2007. The Bank also highlights the 11% increase in investment in capital goods - construction accounted for a comparatively modest 5%. This is important because the GOS is looking to change the Spanish "growth model" from one dependent on construction and internal demand to one more reliant on investment in capital goods/R&D and exports. (El Pais, 8/7/07) ABENGOA BUYS BRAZILIAN DEDINIA AGRO FOR USD 684 MILLION ¶3. (U) Dedinia is a major ethanol and sugar producer. This acquisition is part of Abengoa's strategy to become a global leader in renewable energy. The Andalucia-based firm is already the fifth largest bioethanol producer in the U.S. (Expansion, 8/7/07) SALARIES' SHARE OF GDP DECLINED BY 13% ¶4. (U) Bank of Spain releases study showing that salaries' share of GDP has declined by 13% in the eurozone since 1980 as a result of increased labor market flexibility and technological change. In Spain the decline has been a relatively modest 4% since 1980. (El Pais, 8/7/07) TELEFONICA (VIVO) ACQUIRES BRAZIL'S TELEMIG AND AMAZONIA CELLULAR ¶5. (U) Telefonica-controlled Vivo beat Carlos Slim's Claro in acquiring Brazil's Telemig and Amazonia Celular for euros 469 million: This acquisition is being characterized as a Telefonica win by the national and international press. Comment: Telefonica appears to believe there is still some merit in the acquisitions route even though the company said recently it planned more "organic", i.e. internal, growth. (Expansion, August 4, 2007; Financial Times, August 4, 2007) EL PAIS EDITORIAL SUPPORTS INDIAN COURT JUDGMENT AGAINST NOVARTIS ¶6. (U) Spain's leading daily says it supports robust patent protection for innovative drugs, but that some companies have gone too far in submitting incrementally improved drugs for new patent terms. (El Pais, 8/8/07) TELEFONICA FACES POPULIST OPPOSITION TO EXPANSION IN LATIN AMERICA MADRID 00001555 002.2 OF 003 ¶7. (U) Telefonica is said to face "populist" opposition to expansion in Brazil, Ecuador, Venezuela and Argentina. The company is especially worried about overly restrictive final prices imposed by the local regulators. (Expansion, 8/8/07) NEW GOS LAW WILL ALLOW OFFSHORE CONSTRUCTION OF WIND FARMS ¶8. (U) The GOS passed a new law that will allow offshore construction of wind farms. With over 400 wind farms and 12,000 turbines generating 8 percent of Spain's energy, wind farm construction is nothing new to the world's second largest producer of wind energy. However, although experimental offshore wind farms have been built, this will be the first time that larger scale commercial development will be allowed. Under the new law, a committee of five GOS ministries will review all proposals and have the authority to grant operating licenses within government designated zones. The law is consistent with the GOS target of having 12.1% of its total energy consumption from renewable sources by 2010. (GOS Official Bulletin, 8/1/07; El Pais, 8/2/07) GAMESA REPORTS STRONG FINANCIAL RESULTS ¶9. (U) Spain-based Gamesa, the world's second largest wind turbine manufacturer, reported strong financial results for the first half of 2007 with 67 percent revenue growth and 20 percent operating profit growth (adjusted EBITDA). With four new production facilities in Pennsylvania, 30 percent of Gamesa's global wind energy sales are now U.S. generated. Year to date, Gamesa's share price has increased over 45 percent. However, the company reported that the lack of critical component availability (blades and towers) - a constraint experienced across the industry - is slowing revenue growth. (Gamesa Quarterly Earnings Statement, 7/31/07) POST OFFICE TO BE FULLY INTEGRATED BY 2008 ¶10. (U) The state-owned Spanish Post Office expects to complete operational and commercial integration with Kahala Posts Group (KPG) by early 2008. KPG, a collaborative network of nine national postal administrations, was created in 2005 to compete more effectively against multi-national carriers TNT, UPS, FedEx and DHL. Spain's Post Office, whose participation in the alliance has lagged other partners, said it is accelerating its integration effort to improve the competitiveness of its export service. Export volumes among all alliance members have grown 40% annually. (Expansion, 8/7/07) MADRID BARAJAS AIRPORT INCREASING IN INTERNATIONAL PROMINENCE ¶11. (U) The investment that GoS has made to expand Madrid's Barajas airport over the past several years is beginning to bear fruit. Over the past four months, this airport experienced one of the largest increases in the number of passengers served, increasing the airport's ranking to 10th worldwide. AENA, Spain's airport management authority, predicts that Barajas, capacity will continue to grow, and that it will soon surpass airports such as Frankfort and Peking, currently ranked at 9th and 8th respectively. AENA estimates that Barajas-Madrid will service a total of 51 million passengers by the end of 2007, six million more than in 2006. NEW EC REQUIREMENT WILL CAUSE HIGHER GRAIN AND OILSEED PRICES ¶12. (U) The European Commission's (EC),agriculture directorate just published an impact statement estimating that the EC's new ten percent (by 2020) renewable fuels mixing requirement will result in higher grains and oilseeds prices. The EC's report indicates that to meet the new mixing requirement, European Union (EU) farmers will need to dedicate about 15 percent of currently available agricultural land to the production of renewable fuels feedstock. They forecast price increases (from today's historically high prices) of from 3 to 6 percent for cereals and 8 to 10 percent for oilseeds prices. ¶13. (U) The EC's new forecasts are sure not to please those who argue against the diversion of farmland from the production of food to the production of fuels, but, as with all such forecasts, it is clear that with time and experience the EC will submit revised projections. For instance, if the EC were to modernize its agriculture biotechnology evaluation MADRID 00001555 003.2 OF 003 policy before 2020, new biotechnology seed varieties would likely help EU farmers produce increased yields far in excess of those needed under current projections to meet the increased demand for renewable fuels feed stock. NASA RECEIVES POSITIVE COVERAGE ¶14. (U) The August 8 launch of Space Shuttle Endeavour received positive, accurate press coverage in Spain. The websites of both El Pais and El Mundo carried the launch as lead stories the morning of August 9, and provided accurate descriptions of the mission and its objectives. The El Pais coverage was positive and included the story of teacher-turned-astronaut Barbara Morgan's more than twenty year journey to fly in space, as well as the role that Zaragoza plays in case of an emergency. El Mundo's coverage mentioned scientific experiments being conducted by Endeavour's crew in coordination with the Spanish national Research Council (CSIC). El Mundo's report did reference "various scandals" that have "seriously damaged" NASA's professional image, including a subcontractor's recent attempted sabotage, allegations of astronauts consuming alcohol before missions, and the attempted kidnapping charges against former astronaut Lisa Nowak. (El Pais.com 8/9/07;elmundo.es, 8/9/07) AGUIRRE