COMESA LEADERS SHARE VIEWS ON THE SADC SUMMIT,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LUSAKA 000983 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR USTR (WJACKSON) E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/27/2017 TAGS: OTRA PREL SADC ZA SUBJECT: COMESA LEADERS SHARE VIEWS ON THE SADC SUMMIT, ZIMBABWE, AND COMESA SUCCESSORSHIP REF: A. LUSAKA 963 ¶B. LUSAKA 945 ¶C. NAIROBI 3021 Classified By: Ambassador Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary. On August 28, Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) Secretariat leaders shared their views with Ambassador Martinez on the challenges of overlapping customs unions, expressed skepticism regarding SADC's "economic rescue plan" for Zimbabwe, and suggested that Mugabe's offer to host the 2008 COMESA Summit (and take up the COMESA Chair) presents COMESA with some organizational difficulties. They also discussed leadership changes at COMESA, in particular the appointment of a new Secretary General in May 2008. End Summary. -------------- COMESA AND SADC -------------- ¶2. (C) On August 28, Ambassador Martinez met individually with COMESA Assistant Secretary General Nagla El-Hussainy and Acting Secretary General Sindiso Ngwenya to follow up on Ngwenya's recent visits to the U.S. and to inquire into future leadership changes at COMESA. Ambassador Martinez asked whether COMESA's customs union, which it intends to establish in 2008, will conflict with other regional organizations' economic integration plans and whether COMESA Member States who belong to the Southern African Development Community (SADC) will eventually have to choose between the two organizations. Ngwenya said that COMESA would make every effort to harmonize its customs union with those of SADC and the East African Community (EAC). He mentioned the possibility of a tripartite summit between COMESA, SADC, and the EAC to coordinate integration procedures, but suggested that not all COMESA Member States wholly support customs union harmonization, pointing specifically to Tanzania. ¶3. (C) On his own accord, Ngwenya (a Zimbabwean national) brought up the issue of Zimbabwe's instability. He said that he had not seen a copy of the SADC Executive Secretary's report on the economic situation in Zimbabwe that was presented to SADC leaders at the recently concluded SADC Heads of State Summit (Refs A and B),nor the SADC leaders' "economic rescue plan," but said that he would try to obtain an "unofficial" copy. He speculated that SADC intervention would not be sufficient to "save" Zimbabwe from its problems, and that other SADC Member States were not in a position--financially or politically--to offer much assistance. He said that SADC leaders had "played into Mugabe's hand," by offering a plan that they could not deliver and that would shift responsibility from Mugabe to his SADC counterparts. "Whatever you think of Mugabe, whether good or bad, he is a shrewd politician," Ngwenya commented. -------------- COMESA AND MUGABE -------------- ¶4. (C) El-Hussainy admitted that the May 2008 COMESA Summit in Harare would be difficult to organize, given the shortage of food, fuel, and other materials in Zimbabwe, but said that her Zimbabwean colleagues were confident that they would have the capability and resources to host the Summit successfully. When asked whether she shared that confidence, El-Hussainy shrugged her shoulders helplessly. "What can we do? We are just the Secretariat. We have no choice." She explained that during the COMESA Summit in Nairobi last May, Mugabe had volunteered to host the 2008 meetings. "No one opposed!" El-Hussainy exclaimed astonishingly. Al-Hussainy also explained that the Summit host serves as the Vice-Chair in the year preceding the Summit, the Chair in the year following it, and the Rapporteur in the year thereafter. Consequently, Zimbabwe will be Vice-Chair until May 2008, Chair from May 2008 to May 2009, and Rapporteur from May 2009 to May 2010. LUSAKA 00000983 002 OF 002 ¶5. (C) El-Hussainy expressed her hope that Mugabe's leadership role in COMESA not damage ongoing U.S.-COMESA cooperation. She described Mugabe's functions within SADC as "mostly ceremonial." Ambassador Martinez recommended that Mugabe be dissuaded from ranting on as he did in Nairobi (Ref C),turning the COMESA meetings into an opportunity to blame others for his leadership failures. El-Hussainy acknowledged the possibility that Mugabe may try to use the 2008 Summit to his own political advantage, when 18 Heads of State and Government visit Harare as his guests. (Comment: One concern is that Mugabe might use the COMESA forum to establish his legitimacy, if he continues in office beyond the Zimbabwean presidential elections in March 2008. End Comment.) -------------- COMESA AND A NEW SECRETARY GENERAL -------------- ¶6. (C) El-Hussainy told Ambassador Martinez that COMESA Member States will choose a new Secretary General to replace Erastus Mwencha, whose term finishes in May 2008. The decision will fall to select COMESA Integration/Trade Ministers, who will over the next several months interview the two candidates: Mwencha's deputy, Sindiso Ngwenya, and Rwanda's Minister of Public Service, Skills, Development, and Labor, Manasseh Nshuti. She noted that four applicants had applied for Ngwenya's position of Assistant Secretary General, which will open up at the same time, including COMESA's Director of Legal Affairs, Stephen Karangizi, a Ugandan national. Ngwenya told the Ambassador that although the appointments would be made at the 2008 Summit in Harare, the decision would be unofficially made public by December ¶2007. Ngwenya said he hoped more candidates would apply for the Secretary General position because "competition is always healthy." ¶7. (C) Comment. Although COMESA intends to coordinate closely with SADC to establish compatible customs unions, COMESA's economic integration plans are much further developed; SADC intends to launch its customs union in 2010, two years after COMESA. El-Hussainy recently told EmbOff, however, that SADC is "five years behind COMESA." Given SADC's planning lag, it will be difficult for the two organizations to even discuss harmonization. In practice, "harmonization" may not occur until 2009/2010, when SADC attempts to conform with an existing COMESA customs union. We are impressed by COMESA's steady focus and ambitious efforts to achieve economic growth. COMESA is likely to continue to press for USG aid-for-trade assistance, particularly during forthcoming meetings in Washington in October. We are also confident that whether it be Nshuti or Ngwenya that takes the helm in March 2008, COMESA should continue to enjoy strong and non-partisan leadership. MARTINEZ