COMESA LEADERS SHARE VIEWS ON THE SADC SUMMIT,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LUSAKA 000983

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR USTR (WJACKSON)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/27/2017
TAGS: OTRA PREL SADC ZA
SUBJECT: COMESA LEADERS SHARE VIEWS ON THE SADC SUMMIT,
ZIMBABWE, AND COMESA SUCCESSORSHIP

REF: A. LUSAKA 963


B. LUSAKA 945

C. NAIROBI 3021

Classified By: Ambassador Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. On August 28, Common Market for Eastern and
Southern Africa (COMESA) Secretariat leaders shared their
views with Ambassador Martinez on the challenges of
overlapping customs unions, expressed skepticism regarding
SADC's "economic rescue plan" for Zimbabwe, and suggested
that Mugabe's offer to host the 2008 COMESA Summit (and take
up the COMESA Chair) presents COMESA with some organizational
difficulties. They also discussed leadership changes at
COMESA, in particular the appointment of a new Secretary
General in May 2008. End Summary.

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COMESA AND SADC
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2. (C) On August 28, Ambassador Martinez met individually
with COMESA Assistant Secretary General Nagla El-Hussainy and
Acting Secretary General Sindiso Ngwenya to follow up on
Ngwenya's recent visits to the U.S. and to inquire into
future leadership changes at COMESA. Ambassador Martinez
asked whether COMESA's customs union, which it intends to
establish in 2008, will conflict with other regional
organizations' economic integration plans and whether COMESA
Member States who belong to the Southern African Development
Community (SADC) will eventually have to choose between the
two organizations. Ngwenya said that COMESA would make every
effort to harmonize its customs union with those of SADC and
the East African Community (EAC). He mentioned the
possibility of a tripartite summit between COMESA, SADC, and
the EAC to coordinate integration procedures, but suggested
that not all COMESA Member States wholly support customs
union harmonization, pointing specifically to Tanzania.


3. (C) On his own accord, Ngwenya (a Zimbabwean national)
brought up the issue of Zimbabwe's instability. He said that
he had not seen a copy of the SADC Executive Secretary's
report on the economic situation in Zimbabwe that was
presented to SADC leaders at the recently concluded SADC
Heads of State Summit (Refs A and B),nor the SADC leaders'
"economic rescue plan," but said that he would try to obtain
an "unofficial" copy. He speculated that SADC intervention
would not be sufficient to "save" Zimbabwe from its problems,
and that other SADC Member States were not in a
position--financially or politically--to offer much
assistance. He said that SADC leaders had "played into
Mugabe's hand," by offering a plan that they could not
deliver and that would shift responsibility from Mugabe to
his SADC counterparts. "Whatever you think of Mugabe,
whether good or bad, he is a shrewd politician," Ngwenya
commented.

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COMESA AND MUGABE
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4. (C) El-Hussainy admitted that the May 2008 COMESA Summit
in Harare would be difficult to organize, given the shortage
of food, fuel, and other materials in Zimbabwe, but said that
her Zimbabwean colleagues were confident that they would have
the capability and resources to host the Summit successfully.
When asked whether she shared that confidence, El-Hussainy
shrugged her shoulders helplessly. "What can we do? We are
just the Secretariat. We have no choice." She explained
that during the COMESA Summit in Nairobi last May, Mugabe had
volunteered to host the 2008 meetings. "No one opposed!"
El-Hussainy exclaimed astonishingly. Al-Hussainy also
explained that the Summit host serves as the Vice-Chair in
the year preceding the Summit, the Chair in the year
following it, and the Rapporteur in the year thereafter.
Consequently, Zimbabwe will be Vice-Chair until May 2008,
Chair from May 2008 to May 2009, and Rapporteur from May 2009
to May 2010.


LUSAKA 00000983 002 OF 002



5. (C) El-Hussainy expressed her hope that Mugabe's
leadership role in COMESA not damage ongoing U.S.-COMESA
cooperation. She described Mugabe's functions within SADC as
"mostly ceremonial." Ambassador Martinez recommended that
Mugabe be dissuaded from ranting on as he did in Nairobi (Ref
C),turning the COMESA meetings into an opportunity to blame
others for his leadership failures. El-Hussainy acknowledged
the possibility that Mugabe may try to use the 2008 Summit to
his own political advantage, when 18 Heads of State and
Government visit Harare as his guests. (Comment: One
concern is that Mugabe might use the COMESA forum to
establish his legitimacy, if he continues in office beyond
the Zimbabwean presidential elections in March 2008. End
Comment.)

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COMESA AND A NEW SECRETARY GENERAL
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6. (C) El-Hussainy told Ambassador Martinez that COMESA
Member States will choose a new Secretary General to replace
Erastus Mwencha, whose term finishes in May 2008. The
decision will fall to select COMESA Integration/Trade
Ministers, who will over the next several months interview
the two candidates: Mwencha's deputy, Sindiso Ngwenya, and
Rwanda's Minister of Public Service, Skills, Development, and
Labor, Manasseh Nshuti. She noted that four applicants had
applied for Ngwenya's position of Assistant Secretary
General, which will open up at the same time, including
COMESA's Director of Legal Affairs, Stephen Karangizi, a
Ugandan national. Ngwenya told the Ambassador that although
the appointments would be made at the 2008 Summit in Harare,
the decision would be unofficially made public by December

2007. Ngwenya said he hoped more candidates would apply for
the Secretary General position because "competition is always
healthy."


7. (C) Comment. Although COMESA intends to coordinate
closely with SADC to establish compatible customs unions,
COMESA's economic integration plans are much further
developed; SADC intends to launch its customs union in 2010,
two years after COMESA. El-Hussainy recently told EmbOff,
however, that SADC is "five years behind COMESA." Given
SADC's planning lag, it will be difficult for the two
organizations to even discuss harmonization. In practice,
"harmonization" may not occur until 2009/2010, when SADC
attempts to conform with an existing COMESA customs union.
We are impressed by COMESA's steady focus and ambitious
efforts to achieve economic growth. COMESA is likely to
continue to press for USG aid-for-trade assistance,
particularly during forthcoming meetings in Washington in
October. We are also confident that whether it be Nshuti or
Ngwenya that takes the helm in March 2008, COMESA should
continue to enjoy strong and non-partisan leadership.
MARTINEZ