DOES THE MIALA CASE MATTER?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LUANDA 000988

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/08/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL AO
SUBJECT: DOES THE MIALA CASE MATTER?

REF: A. LUANDA 723

B. IIR 6934000107

Classified By: CDA FRANCISCO FERNANDEZ FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The rise and meteoric downfall of former
presidental advisor Fernando Miala offers a rare glimpse into
the high-level political machinations and competitive
struggles related to succession politics in Angola. The
ousting of Miala reveals President Dos Santos' undiminished
appetite for centralized control of the government and serves
as a warning to potential rivals that challenges to the
President's supremacy (even from close aides) will not be
tolerated. In spite of efforts to quietly deal with his
removal from public office, Miala's legal case generated
considerable public debate over the concentration and use of
presidential power. End Summary.

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A Brief History
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2. (C) Background - Fernando Garcia Miala joined the GRA in
1979, as President Dos Santos' Chief of Foreign Intelligence.
He operated mainly behind the scenes, quietly rising to
favor as a trusted political aide and eventually a leading
advisor to the President. As Miala's fortunes within the GRA
improved, he began making public appearances and expanding
his political interests. In 2002, Miala was appointed by the
President to run Angola's National Security Council. At the
peak of his influence, Miala was seen by many as a Dos Santos
protoge and potential successor who enjoyed popular support
among the military and civilian Angolans.


3. (C) Miala's political trajectory was permantly altered in
February 2006, when he was dismissed from the government via
Presidental decree and placed under house arrest. Early
rumors that Miala had plotted a coup against the President
were widely dispelled by the GRA's decision in April 2006 to
present Miala with an early retirement and full pension.
Miala did not accept forced retirement, and he remained under
house arrest for over a year. He was formally arrested by
the military on July 13, 2007, and charged with failure to
appear at a military ceremony demoting him from General to
Colonel. In late September, his month-long trial before a
military tribunal resulted in Miala's conviction on all
related charges and a sentence that included four years in
jail and a permanent ban on running for poltical office.

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JEDS Is The Man
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4. (C) The Miala case sent a clear message to political
allies and potential advisaries inside and outside the MPLA
that President Dos Santos is not ready to cede power and
influence to even a trusted and popular poltical protoge.
His move against Miala will long guide future political
aspirants in Angola, and could set political liberlization
back as leaders choose not to build new coalitions or
constituencies for fear they will be pushed out of government
in disgrace and banned for life from poltical office.


5. (C) It is unclear what role Dos Santos' other powerful
advisors, Manuel Helder Vieira Dias (Kopelipa) and Jose
Maria, played in Miala's removal from office - they clearly
benefitted from the demise of their fomer colleague. If they
played an active role in forcing Dos Santos' hand to removing
Miala, succession politics must factor in their influences
and motivations in maintaining a favorable status quo.

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Interesting Public Views
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6. (C) A wide range of views have been expressed concerning
what the Miala case reveals about politics in Angola. Few
Angolans believe Miala plotted a coup against the President.
Most think Dos Santos fired Miala becase he was becoming too
powerful and too poltically popular, acting independent of a
President who does not like to share popularity or success
with subordinates. Some public opinion, expressed in weekend
tabloid press and on the radio, views the Miala case as an
example of why it is time for the President to step aside and
let a new generation of leaders govern.

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Comment
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7. (C) In the short- to medium-term, Miala's downfall
soldifies Dos Santos' strong grip on power in Angola. To the
extent that Kopelipa and Jose Maria influenced Dos Santos to

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move against Miala, their positions in the government power
structure were strengthened as well. In the long-term,
however, this very public display of antiquated palace
politics will be a factor Angolans consider in their
forthcoming national dialogue.
FERNANDEZ