DOES THE MIALA CASE MATTER?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LUANDA 000988 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/08/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL AO SUBJECT: DOES THE MIALA CASE MATTER? REF: A. LUANDA 723 ¶B. IIR 6934000107 Classified By: CDA FRANCISCO FERNANDEZ FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The rise and meteoric downfall of former presidental advisor Fernando Miala offers a rare glimpse into the high-level political machinations and competitive struggles related to succession politics in Angola. The ousting of Miala reveals President Dos Santos' undiminished appetite for centralized control of the government and serves as a warning to potential rivals that challenges to the President's supremacy (even from close aides) will not be tolerated. In spite of efforts to quietly deal with his removal from public office, Miala's legal case generated considerable public debate over the concentration and use of presidential power. End Summary. -------------- A Brief History -------------- ¶2. (C) Background - Fernando Garcia Miala joined the GRA in 1979, as President Dos Santos' Chief of Foreign Intelligence. He operated mainly behind the scenes, quietly rising to favor as a trusted political aide and eventually a leading advisor to the President. As Miala's fortunes within the GRA improved, he began making public appearances and expanding his political interests. In 2002, Miala was appointed by the President to run Angola's National Security Council. At the peak of his influence, Miala was seen by many as a Dos Santos protoge and potential successor who enjoyed popular support among the military and civilian Angolans. ¶3. (C) Miala's political trajectory was permantly altered in February 2006, when he was dismissed from the government via Presidental decree and placed under house arrest. Early rumors that Miala had plotted a coup against the President were widely dispelled by the GRA's decision in April 2006 to present Miala with an early retirement and full pension. Miala did not accept forced retirement, and he remained under house arrest for over a year. He was formally arrested by the military on July 13, 2007, and charged with failure to appear at a military ceremony demoting him from General to Colonel. In late September, his month-long trial before a military tribunal resulted in Miala's conviction on all related charges and a sentence that included four years in jail and a permanent ban on running for poltical office. -------------- JEDS Is The Man -------------- ¶4. (C) The Miala case sent a clear message to political allies and potential advisaries inside and outside the MPLA that President Dos Santos is not ready to cede power and influence to even a trusted and popular poltical protoge. His move against Miala will long guide future political aspirants in Angola, and could set political liberlization back as leaders choose not to build new coalitions or constituencies for fear they will be pushed out of government in disgrace and banned for life from poltical office. ¶5. (C) It is unclear what role Dos Santos' other powerful advisors, Manuel Helder Vieira Dias (Kopelipa) and Jose Maria, played in Miala's removal from office - they clearly benefitted from the demise of their fomer colleague. If they played an active role in forcing Dos Santos' hand to removing Miala, succession politics must factor in their influences and motivations in maintaining a favorable status quo. -------------- Interesting Public Views -------------- ¶6. (C) A wide range of views have been expressed concerning what the Miala case reveals about politics in Angola. Few Angolans believe Miala plotted a coup against the President. Most think Dos Santos fired Miala becase he was becoming too powerful and too poltically popular, acting independent of a President who does not like to share popularity or success with subordinates. Some public opinion, expressed in weekend tabloid press and on the radio, views the Miala case as an example of why it is time for the President to step aside and let a new generation of leaders govern. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) In the short- to medium-term, Miala's downfall soldifies Dos Santos' strong grip on power in Angola. To the extent that Kopelipa and Jose Maria influenced Dos Santos to LUANDA 00000988 002 OF 002 move against Miala, their positions in the government power structure were strengthened as well. In the long-term, however, this very public display of antiquated palace politics will be a factor Angolans consider in their forthcoming national dialogue. FERNANDEZ