PRESSURE ON CNE AS ELECTORAL BALL DROPS IN ITS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LUANDA 001269 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR PITTMAN/LEO E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/19/2017 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL AO SUBJECT: PRESSURE ON CNE AS ELECTORAL BALL DROPS IN ITS COURT REF: LUANDA 1254 Classified By: AMB DAN MOZENA FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: The GRA continued to set the stage for legislative elections in 2008 in a series of high-level meetings this week. At an extraordinary session of the GRA's senior consultative body, the Council of the Republic, on December 17th, the President dos Santos clarified the National Electoral Commission's (CNE) leading role in conducting elections, promised the availability of government resources, and said he would call elections after receiving the CNE's report certifying the electoral registration process and the CNE's preparedness to conduct elections. The Council also discussed holding municipal elections after presidential elections, squashing speculation that preparation for local elections could delay the legislative or presidential vote. In a December 19th meeting, Angola's Council of Ministers (Cabinet) discussed the supplementary voter registration period, tentatively scheduled between April and May 2008. The CNE's request to IFES for assistance in developing a viable and credible electoral process is now more urgent. END SUMMARY Legislative Elections: Full Speed Ahead -------------- ¶2. (U) In his December 17th speech opening the Council of the Republic, a consultative body comprised of key government figures, opposition leaders, and presidential nominees, President dos Santos announced that the government has "almost completed" its role in the electoral process - registering voters - and listed some of the tasks that now fall to the quasi-independent CNE, such as designing and preparing ballots and materials for setting up voting stations and planning the logistics behind securing, transporting and counting ballots. The President clarified that the government's civilian and military resources will be available for the CNE to use and direct as necessary to conduct the legislative elections. The Council also discussed the gradual implementation of local elections, confirming for the first time they would only take place only after presidential elections, currently slated for 2009. ¶3. (U) The Council called for the CNE to deliver quickly its report certifying the voter registration process and its readiness to conduct elections, a report that by law must be received before the President can call the elections. A CNE spokesman pointed out it is waiting for CIPE, the inter-ministerial commission that conducted voter registration, to submit the final voter registration books before the CNE can certify their compliance with electoral laws. ¶4. (U) Following the Council of Ministers meeting on December 19, acting CIPE coordinator Edeltrudes Costa stated the CIPE was almost ready to hand over the books (CNE and CIPE had previously established a year-end deadline for their delivery). Costa also announced that the Council discussed scheduling a registration update between April and May 2008, after the height of the rainy season. As this supplemental registration is meant to capture voters who will turn 18 by election day, the date of the elections would need to be established before this April-May timeframe so registrars would know which potential voters would be of age on election day. The CNE's Hot Potato -------------- ¶5. (C) As a result of the Council of the Republic meeting, pressure is now on the CNE to deliver a logistical plan for elections, something it has thus far been unable to produce. A USAID-funded IFES analyst recently called the CNE "shockingly" far behind on its strategic planning process, noting they haven't yet made basic decisions such as whether ballots and voter books will be paper, electronic, or a combination. Such decisions are politically sensitive and have significant operational repercussions. IFES, calling these issues "a big mess," stated that January is a key month for the electoral process as the CNE works to get the process on track for elections that look most likely for the latter months of the announced May-September timeframe. ¶6. (C) CNE President Caetano de Sousa believes the CNE is not behind the power curve, as he pulled off the '92 elections on a much shorter timeframe. CNE leaders have engaged in closed-door meetings since the Council of the Republic meeting, in an atmosphere described by insiders as "tense." Next Steps: USG's Role in Electoral Assistance LUANDA 00001269 002 OF 002 -------------- --- ¶7. (C) COMMENT: As the dust settles after this most recent flurry of election-related activity, legislative elections are still on track for 2008 but there is still a long logistical road ahead and many key decisions must be taken quickly by electoral planners to meet the May to September timeline. The President's statement before the Council of the Republic places responsibility (and blame in case of failure) squarely on the CNE. The CNE's request for USG-funded operational and planning support from IFES (reftel) is now ever more imperative. This support will be crucial as the CNE seeks to forge a viable and credible electoral process. END COMMENT MOZENA