SLOVENIA: AFTERSHOCKS OF PM RESIGNATION THREAT

C O N F I D E N T I A L LJUBLJANA 000716 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/15/2017 TAGS: PGOV SI SUBJECT: SLOVENIA: AFTERSHOCKS OF PM RESIGNATION THREAT CONTINUE REF: A. LJUBLJANA 713 ¶B. LJUBLJANA 707 Classified By: CDA Maryruth Coleman for reasons 1.4(b,d) ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: PM Jansa's November 13 threat of a government resignation (reftel A) continued to grab front page attention. Pundits and politicians launched various theories regarding Jansa's motivations for the drastic statement, but the majority view is that it is an empty threat. Although advisors close to the PM warned us that the possibility of resignation is real, opposition party members and political commentators focused on the theory that Jansa's intimation at resignation is a stratagem to persuade the opposition to reaffirm their commitment to a previously signed agreement to support the government in the run-up to and during the EU presidency. (Note: On May 17, all parliamentarian parties, with the exception of the Liberal Democrats and the National Party, signed the cooperation agreement as a show of solidarity before the challenge of the presidency. The agreement commits the signatories to avoid extraordinary challenges against the government before and during the EU presidency. End note.) END SUMMARY COALITION PARTNER OUT OF STEP -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On November 14, Karl Erjavec, Minister of Defense and president of the smallest coalition party DeSus, stated that if the PM believes that there is insufficient trust in the government it should resign. Erjavec also said that if Jansa requested a vote of confidence in Parliament, Erjavec would propose that DeSus terminate its coalition agreement. (Note: DeSus is the swing coalition partner, giving it significantly more political power than it might otherwise have. End note.) ¶3. (C) On November 14, Jansa's public relations advisor, Rok Srakar, told the Embassy that Jansa is still contemplating a possible resignation of the government and that the threat should be taken seriously. Noting that Erjavec was in a foul mood following the November 15 cabinet meeting, Srakar hinted that Jansa had taken Erjavec to task for somehow speaking on behalf of Jansa about resigning. Srakar told us, however, that at the meeting the cabinet did not discuss the possibility of resigning. POSSIBLE NEGOTIATIONS WITH OPPOSITION? -------------- ¶4. (C) Miro Cerar, legal advisor to Parliament, told us that he agreed that resignation remains a possibility, but thought that Jansa's hints at resignation were simply a defensive reaction to the slap that Jansa perceived the election results to be. Cerar said he saw the PM's best possibility as meeting with the opposition as soon as possible to settle the question of the May agreement. THREAT DOESN'T AFFECT SLOVENIA'S EU PRESIDENCY -------------- - ¶5. (C) MFA EU Correspondent Aljaz Arih told us that the PM's pronouncement had taken Ministers by surprise. He stressed, however, that the PM's statement had not affected the work of the MFA. According to Arih, Slovenia's course for the EU presidency is set and would not change even if there were a change in government. COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) While there is little chance that the government will resign, it is possible that if Jansa cannot reach agreement with the opposition to respect the commitments made in the May agreement, he could call for a vote of confidence in the Parliament. Jansa might hope that he could at least garner support from an opposition that has no interest in taking power only weeks before Slovenia takes over the EU presidency in January. COLEMAN