SLOVENIA: AFTERSHOCKS OF PM RESIGNATION THREAT

C O N F I D E N T I A L LJUBLJANA 000716

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/15/2017
TAGS: PGOV SI
SUBJECT: SLOVENIA: AFTERSHOCKS OF PM RESIGNATION THREAT
CONTINUE

REF: A. LJUBLJANA 713


B. LJUBLJANA 707

Classified By: CDA Maryruth Coleman for reasons 1.4(b,d)


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: PM Jansa's November 13 threat of a
government resignation (reftel A) continued to grab front
page attention. Pundits and politicians launched various
theories regarding Jansa's motivations for the drastic
statement, but the majority view is that it is an empty
threat. Although advisors close to the PM warned us that the
possibility of resignation is real, opposition party members
and political commentators focused on the theory that Jansa's
intimation at resignation is a stratagem to persuade the
opposition to reaffirm their commitment to a previously
signed agreement to support the government in the run-up to
and during the EU presidency. (Note: On May 17, all
parliamentarian parties, with the exception of the Liberal
Democrats and the National Party, signed the cooperation
agreement as a show of solidarity before the challenge of the
presidency. The agreement commits the signatories to avoid
extraordinary challenges against the government before and
during the EU presidency. End note.) END SUMMARY

COALITION PARTNER OUT OF STEP
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2. (SBU) On November 14, Karl Erjavec, Minister of Defense
and president of the smallest coalition party DeSus, stated
that if the PM believes that there is insufficient trust in
the government it should resign. Erjavec also said that if
Jansa requested a vote of confidence in Parliament, Erjavec
would propose that DeSus terminate its coalition agreement.
(Note: DeSus is the swing coalition partner, giving it
significantly more political power than it might otherwise
have. End note.)


3. (C) On November 14, Jansa's public relations advisor, Rok
Srakar, told the Embassy that Jansa is still contemplating a
possible resignation of the government and that the threat
should be taken seriously. Noting that Erjavec was in a foul
mood following the November 15 cabinet meeting, Srakar hinted
that Jansa had taken Erjavec to task for somehow speaking on
behalf of Jansa about resigning. Srakar told us, however,
that at the meeting the cabinet did not discuss the
possibility of resigning.

POSSIBLE NEGOTIATIONS WITH OPPOSITION?
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4. (C) Miro Cerar, legal advisor to Parliament, told us that
he agreed that resignation remains a possibility, but thought
that Jansa's hints at resignation were simply a defensive
reaction to the slap that Jansa perceived the election
results to be. Cerar said he saw the PM's best possibility
as meeting with the opposition as soon as possible to settle
the question of the May agreement.

THREAT DOESN'T AFFECT SLOVENIA'S EU PRESIDENCY
-------------- -

5. (C) MFA EU Correspondent Aljaz Arih told us that the PM's
pronouncement had taken Ministers by surprise. He stressed,
however, that the PM's statement had not affected the work of
the MFA. According to Arih, Slovenia's course for the EU
presidency is set and would not change even if there were a
change in government.

COMMENT
--------------

6. (C) While there is little chance that the government will
resign, it is possible that if Jansa cannot reach agreement
with the opposition to respect the commitments made in the
May agreement, he could call for a vote of confidence in the
Parliament. Jansa might hope that he could at least garner
support from an opposition that has no interest in taking
power only weeks before Slovenia takes over the EU presidency
in January.
COLEMAN