SLOVENIAN PM THREATENS POSSIBLE RESIGNATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L LJUBLJANA 000713 SIPDIS SIPDIS PASS FOR EUR/NCE E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/2017 TAGS: PGOV SI SUBJECT: SLOVENIAN PM THREATENS POSSIBLE RESIGNATION REF: LJUBLJANA 707 Classified By: CDA Maryruth Coleman, Reason 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (U) Two days after the presidential election victory of Danilo Trk and the government's loss in a referendum on insurance privatization (reftel),PM Janez Jansa stated that the GOS response to the election would be to consider all options, including the resignation of the government. In a statement released on November 13, Jansa complained that the election campaign had been oriented against the government and that the attempts of the opposition to blacken the government's name at home and abroad had undermined the work of the government. Jansa's announcement of a potential resignation caused an uproar across the political spectrum and an onslaught of speculation as to what could be behind such a risky threat. ¶2. (C) Barbara Brezigar, Slovenia's Prosecutor General, told CDA November 14 that there was a real possibility that Jansa would resign. According to Brezigar, the government feels that the opposition attacks are blocking the government's work. Speaker of the Parliament, France Cukjati, told the press on November 13 that he understood why the government was considering a resignation. "It's impossible to work to the benefit of Slovenia in this way, it is better to go into opposition. ¶3. (C) Others argue that Jansa is taking a calculated risk either to solidify his own coalition or to set the stage for the major opposition party (Pahor's SD) to join SDS. Matjaz Nahtigal, former advisor to President Drnovsek, told CDA on November 14 that he perceived Jansa to be quite desperate. Nahtigal, however, said that in the final analysis Jansa would not resign but would more likely ask Parliament for a vote of confidence. He thought that Jansa would win such a vote as the opposition would give him partial support given the upcoming EU presidency. OPPOSITION AGAINST POSSIBLE RESIGNATION -------------- ¶4. (U) Leaders of the opposition spoke out against a possible resignation by Jansa. Borut Pahor, head of opposition party Social Democrats (SD),commented that "a successful EU presidency is in the national interest of Slovenia and speculation on a government resignation is not helpful. It is important for Slovenia that the government successfully lead the EU and execute regular national elections." Referring to Jansa's statement, the president of the new opposition party Zares, Gregor Golobic, stated that "there is no political, economic, or other crisis that would merit such a dramatic statement." Liberal Democratic Party president Katarina Kresal characterized Jansa's reaction to the election loss as "irrational and irresponsible." COMMENT -------------- ¶5. (C) It is highly unlikely that Jansa would actually resign. A resignation at this point in time would be disasterous for Jansa's party and for his personal career. With the start of Slovenia's EU presidency looming in six weeks, a Jansa move to abandon the helm and let Slovenia drift into its greatest challenge since joining the union would be foolhardy in the extreme. Slovenes would consider such a move as near traitorous and neither Jansa nor SDS would likely ever recover. It is also difficult to see any benefit that Jansa could derive from early elections. Public opinion of SDS is at its lowest level since the party came to power in 2004 and the party would likely fair poorly in early elections. If SDS is able to steer Slovenia through the EU presidency with relative success, then the party's chances in regularly scheduled elections next fall would be much better. ¶6. (C) A more plausible explanation for Jansa's reaction is that although the election result reflected the public's preference of Trk's personality over that of Peterle, Jansa has taken it as a personal affront to his leadership and reacted accordingly. Jansa is a fighter and it is not surprising that he would not take the electoral defeat lying down. By hinting at a possible resignation, Jansa may be trying to provoke both his coalition partners and the opposition into throwing their support behind the government in this critical pre-presidency period. COLEMAN