SLOVENIAN PM THREATENS POSSIBLE RESIGNATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L LJUBLJANA 000713

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/2017
TAGS: PGOV SI
SUBJECT: SLOVENIAN PM THREATENS POSSIBLE RESIGNATION

REF: LJUBLJANA 707

Classified By: CDA Maryruth Coleman, Reason 1.4 (b,d)


1. (U) Two days after the presidential election victory of
Danilo Trk and the government's loss in a referendum on
insurance privatization (reftel),PM Janez Jansa stated that
the GOS response to the election would be to consider all
options, including the resignation of the government. In a
statement released on November 13, Jansa complained that the
election campaign had been oriented against the government
and that the attempts of the opposition to blacken the
government's name at home and abroad had undermined the work
of the government. Jansa's announcement of a potential
resignation caused an uproar across the political spectrum
and an onslaught of speculation as to what could be behind
such a risky threat.


2. (C) Barbara Brezigar, Slovenia's Prosecutor General, told
CDA November 14 that there was a real possibility that Jansa
would resign. According to Brezigar, the government feels
that the opposition attacks are blocking the government's
work. Speaker of the Parliament, France Cukjati, told the
press on November 13 that he understood why the government
was considering a resignation. "It's impossible to work to
the benefit of Slovenia in this way, it is better to go into
opposition.


3. (C) Others argue that Jansa is taking a calculated risk
either to solidify his own coalition or to set the stage for
the major opposition party (Pahor's SD) to join SDS. Matjaz
Nahtigal, former advisor to President Drnovsek, told CDA on
November 14 that he perceived Jansa to be quite desperate.
Nahtigal, however, said that in the final analysis Jansa
would not resign but would more likely ask Parliament for a
vote of confidence. He thought that Jansa would win such a
vote as the opposition would give him partial support given
the upcoming EU presidency.

OPPOSITION AGAINST POSSIBLE RESIGNATION
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4. (U) Leaders of the opposition spoke out against a possible
resignation by Jansa. Borut Pahor, head of opposition party
Social Democrats (SD),commented that "a successful EU
presidency is in the national interest of Slovenia and
speculation on a government resignation is not helpful. It
is important for Slovenia that the government successfully
lead the EU and execute regular national elections."
Referring to Jansa's statement, the president of the new
opposition party Zares, Gregor Golobic, stated that "there is
no political, economic, or other crisis that would merit such
a dramatic statement." Liberal Democratic Party president
Katarina Kresal characterized Jansa's reaction to the
election loss as "irrational and irresponsible."

COMMENT
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5. (C) It is highly unlikely that Jansa would actually
resign. A resignation at this point in time would be
disasterous for Jansa's party and for his personal career.
With the start of Slovenia's EU presidency looming in six
weeks, a Jansa move to abandon the helm and let Slovenia
drift into its greatest challenge since joining the union
would be foolhardy in the extreme. Slovenes would consider
such a move as near traitorous and neither Jansa nor SDS
would likely ever recover. It is also difficult to see any
benefit that Jansa could derive from early elections. Public
opinion of SDS is at its lowest level since the party came to
power in 2004 and the party would likely fair poorly in early
elections. If SDS is able to steer Slovenia through the EU
presidency with relative success, then the party's chances in
regularly scheduled elections next fall would be much better.



6. (C) A more plausible explanation for Jansa's reaction is
that although the election result reflected the public's
preference of Trk's personality over that of Peterle, Jansa
has taken it as a personal affront to his leadership and
reacted accordingly. Jansa is a fighter and it is not
surprising that he would not take the electoral defeat lying
down. By hinting at a possible resignation, Jansa may be
trying to provoke both his coalition partners and the
opposition into throwing their support behind the government
in this critical pre-presidency period.
COLEMAN