SLOVENIA: FORMER PRESIDENT KUCAN LAMENTS LACK OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L LJUBLJANA 000069

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/NCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV SI
SUBJECT: SLOVENIA: FORMER PRESIDENT KUCAN LAMENTS LACK OF
VISION IN CURRENT POLITICS


Classified By: COM Thomas B. Robertson for reasons 1.4(b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Milan Kucan, independent Slovenia's first and
longest serving president continues to hold his finger to the
nation's political pulse. On February 1, he shared with COM
his views on domestic politics and what he terms a lack of
vision by both the ruling coalition and the opposition;
developments in Kosovo and Serbia and potential negative
implications for the region and beyond; relations with
Croatia which he thinks are hostage to irrational posturing
of politicians on both sides; and predictions on who
Slovenia's next president will be: primping Pahor (head of
Social Democrats),staid Peterle (Slovenia's first Prime
Minister) or Slovenia's own new guru (current President)
Janez D. End Summary.

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Slovenia - Blind Man's Bluff
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2. (C) Former President Kucan, whose last declared political
affiliation was with the Communist Party, nevertheless had
good insights on the continuing implosion of what was once
Slovenia's most powerful political party, Liberal Democracy
(LDS). In short, he identified three things that have led it
to its current disarray: arrogance, clientelism and
political corruption. As he described it, during its years
in power, LDS was like a light bulb in the night attracting
moths. When it lost power, the attraction was lost as well.
LDS was formed out of a coalition of parties which came
together for the 1994 elections. Janez Drnovsek, an
outsider, was drafted to be its leader. However, according
to Kucan, the party underr Drnovsek was a coalition of
dieverse members with Drnovsek as the glue that kept it
together. When he stepped down as party president in 2002,
LDS started losing its top membership. This was a process
which accelerated after parliamentary losses in 2006 and
continues today. Recent polls put LDS's popularity at just
10%. According to Kucan, LDS lacks vision and purpose. It
does not know what it wants as a party, and it does not
understand its role in the opposition - a result of too many
years in power. Too many intellectuals with too much ego and
self-interest populate the leadership. According to Kucan,
if you want a strong political party, you'll have more
success working with a less intellectual crowd. Kucan did
not see Borut Pahor's Social Democrats (SD) as a viable
alternative to LDS since it was cooperating with the current
government on an a-la-carte basis and, Pahor was "all talk
and no substance."


3. (C) While allowing that the current government led by
Janez Jansa (SDS) had done some good things, Kucan asserted
that it, too, lacked vision. The issues it seems most focused
on, health reform and education, for example, were not even
issues in the election campaigns. It simply is not clear what
the government's goals are for Slovenia. Kucan was
particularly critical of the education policies of the
administration, which he said, would result in the gutting of
the public education system in favor of expensive private
education, thus reducing Slovenia's overall competitiveness
in one generation.


4. (C) Kucan continued that it was understandable that
Slovenia seemed to be crashing around in the dark, because
all the big issues that created unity across political
divides were now gone: independence, NATO and EU membership,
joining the Euro zone. Slovenia needs vision and in Kucan's
view, neither Jansa nor anyone in the opposition is supplying
it.

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Campaign 2007 - Slovenia's Next President
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5. (C) A few well-known Slovene politicians have declared
their intentions to run in the next presidential elections
scheduled for Autumn 2007. When asked for his predictions,
Kucan laughed and said it would probably be better if he left
the country for a couple years (presumably to finally kill
any hopes that he would run again). Of Alojz Peterle, a
former Prime Minister and current member of the European
Parliament, Kucan said he had credibility, but would have
trouble with the left. At the time of independence, Kucan
explained, many believed that to be pro-democracy and
pro-independence, you had to be anti-Communist. Memories are
long and the old communists would have trouble supporting
Peterle. He thought the Social Democrat (SD) president and

also member of European Parliament, Borut Pahor, had a good
chance. Kucan did not lose the opportunity to reiterate that
he thought Pahor was more interested in his weight, diet and
looks than serious political issues (Pahor is often accused
of being politically shallow and personally narcissistic),
but, that said, he has wide appeal and no real enemies. If
Pahor ran, Peterle would have real difficulty winning.


6. (C) When asked about Drnovsek's recent hints that he
might, after all, run again, Kucan said he could not be
counted out. Kucan said Drnovsek was famously indecisive and
had chosen to run for the Presidency the last time only at
the eleventh hour. He added that all of Drnovsek's recent
"changes" (referring to the more spiritual persona Drnovsek
is projecting lately),haven't really changed Drnovsek at his
core. He wouldn't be surprised if he did run again. And, if
he did, it would be difficult to predict who might win.
Kucan said he would not mind seeing a woman in the mix,
mentioning specifically Spomenka Hribar one of Slovenia's
original freedom fighters and former LDS politician, but
there was no evidence she was even remotely interested.

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Croatia Border Disputes - All Should Agree to Disagree and
Move On
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7. (C) Relations with its neighbors is always well covered
in the Slovenian press, and Kucan had a healthy dose of
criticism for the way these have been handled so publicly by
this government. Commenting on relations with Croatia, Kucan
said there was "lots of irrationality on both sides." He
said he would try to explain the situation objectively, but
he couldn't help but offer the view that Croatia is "more
irrational." His understanding of the Croatian "superiority
complex" is that it is rooted in Croatia's history as an
independent nation (which Slovenia never was until 1991),
it's self definition as a Roman Catholic bastion against
Islam and (Serbian) Orthodoxy, and the fact that it was a
force to be reckoned with (as Slovenia was not) during the
time of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. This background, plus
lingering resentment over weapons sales (by Slovenia) during
the Balkan wars, combine to make it impossible for Croatia to
appear to be granting any sort of concession to Slovenia. As
Kucan said, land and sea border issues have been exploited
politically so thoroughly on both sides that the only
solution is probably for all politicians in Slovenia and
Croatia to agree to "freeze" the conflict and come to some
accommodation through a joint fishing regime.


8. (C) Kucan lamented the many lost opportunities to resolve
the issue both between former Slovenian PM Drnovsek and
former Croatian PM Racan, as well as his own agreements with
former Croatian President Franjo Tudjman. He blamed lawyers
and intellectuals in Zagreb for shrill rejection based on
nationalist prejudices and overly strict interpretations of
the law. Kucan dismissed the notion that once Croatia was in
the EU, this problem would fade. He thought this a naive
hope and that it was a mistake by the EU to persist in
ignoring the ongoing dispute.

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Kosovo - Trepidation
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9. (C) When asked about Kosovo, Kucan replied that "he didn't
know what to say." He was worried no matter what the
decision would be, not just because of the impact it may have
on security in the region. But he was also concerned by how
it might be used as justification for Albanians in Macedonia,
and separatists in other places such as Catalonia, Nagorno
Karabakh, etc. Kucan thought that the international
community had too easily yielded to assertions that Albanians
and Serbians could not live together. He felt that after
1999, no one was willing to push them to try again, and he
wondered how the two would be able to live together, one day,
when both were members of the EU.

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Comment
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10.(C) Milan Kucan demonstrated why he is so well beloved by
the people of Slovenia. He is open, approachable and
seemingly sincere in his discourse. This does not mean he is
unaware of the impact his comments to the U.S. Ambassador
have, however, he also did not seem to be simply "telling us

what we want to hear." Through his Forum 21 and continued
speculation that he might form or at least support a new
left-leaning political party, Kucan retains significant
political influence, though he has been out of public office
for nearly five years. Kucan maintains strong ties to the
left and will continue to provide perceptive insights into
Slovenian politics for the foreseeable future.
ROBERTSON