SLOVENIA/CROATIA: PRESSURE MOUNTING TO RESOLVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LJUBLJANA 000342

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/NCE, EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/25/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV HR SI
SUBJECT: SLOVENIA/CROATIA: PRESSURE MOUNTING TO RESOLVE
BORDER ISSUE

Classified By: COM Thomas B. Robertson for reason 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary. The unseasonably warm spring seems to have
been an early trigger for the annual summer border dispute
between Croatia and Slovenia. Following a winter of relative
peace on that front, Slovenian Foreign Minister Rupel stepped
back into the fray after the unveiling in Croatia on May 21
of a map of traditional shellfish farms in the Bay of Piran.
The map, produced by the Ministry of Agriculture in Croatia,
provoked this reaction with the depiction of a line of
demarcation running through the middle of Piran Bay, which on
this map is identified as Savudrija Bay - another affront.
In his same-day reaction Rupel told a news conference that no
map drawn after June 25, 1991 had any validity, and that
sooner or later Croatia would have to find a way to solve
this issue, since it hoped to join the European Union. This
latest exchange is a symptom of the chronic discord over the
border that has existed between Slovenia and Croatia since
independence was declared in 1991.


2. (C) The difference 15 years later is that Slovenia is in
the European Union, and Croatia would like to join that club.
The Government of Slovenia appears sincere in wanting
Croatia and the rest of the Western Balkan countries to join
the EU. This is key to its policy to create a secure and
stable Balkan region. From the Prime Minister to the head of
the Parliamentary EU Committee, to the Foreign Minster
himself, all say that Slovenia will not hold Croatia's EU
accession hostage to bilateral issues unless the EU is
interested in having these problems solved prior to Croatia's
entry. That said it seems to be difficult for FM Rupel to
resist returning fire when he believes Croatia has
overstepped with claims about the border. It would also be
unrealistic to expect Slovenia to agree to any demands for
arbitration prior to the EU Presidency in the first half of

2008. End Summary.


3. (C) Recently, it seemed that relations might be on an
upswing on the Croatia-Slovenia dispute. Foreign Minister
Rupel had largely stepped back from public confrontation.
This was to the relief of many Slovenes of various political
views who find his personalization of the dispute and high
handed threats about EU accession for Croatia to be poor form
and detrimental to an important bilateral relationship.
However, for calm to rule, it is clear both sides must
observe restraint when it comes to public discussion of the
border by government officials. Politicians and the Press
are much harder to rein in.


4. (C) The latest provocation for Rupel came with the
unveiling of a map of Croatian shellfish farms in Piran Bay
produced by the Croatian Ministry of Agriculture and
published in the Croatian Official Gazette. Rupel did not
dispute the location of the farms, rather he objected to the
depiction of the Slovenia-Croatia border running through the
middle of Piran Bay and the assertion that Croatia would have
jurisdiction over that area. A further provocation was the
renaming of the bay as Savudrija Bay after the nearest
Croatian town and which, to the best of our knowledge, is a
name that has never been used to describe this area of water.


5. (C) To be sure, there has been continuing provocation from
Slovenia. It has come, predictably, from loud mouths in minor
political parties who have few other issues on which to build
their national profiles. The assertion by Zmago Jelincic of
the National Party (SNS) that Slovenia's border should extend
to the Mirna River - well into Croatian Istria - is dismissed
by all as absurd, and his further threat to call for a
referendum on Croatia's EU accession is considered reckless
and a recipe for certain disaster. Marjan Podobnik (SLS),a
minor politician (but from a coalition party) and head of
newly formed "Institute 25 June" released a map of his view
of the Croatia-Slovenia border on May 14, and he was rebuked
by Rupel in the same press conference in which he reacted to
the Croatia map.


6. (U) In that conference, Rupel stated the Government of
Slovenia is serious about respecting the "non-provocation
pact" agreed between the GOS and GOC in June 2005 and that
"no other maps but those that reflect the situation as it was
on 25 June 1991 can be valid."


7. (C) This latest cycle of accusations and recriminations

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failed again to produce any substantive change in the
situation. Prior to this most recent dust-up, at a lunch
hosted by Croatian Ambassador to Slovenia, Mario Nobilo, and
attended by Polecon Chief, Nobilo had expressed optimism that
the rhetoric had died down and that there was an opportunity
to start the process of arbitration prior to the EU
Presidency. The looming EU Presidency does seem to be the
impetus for the GOS to resolve a few outstanding issues that
many believe will reflect poorly on the GOS if left at loose
ends during the Presidency. These include managing a real
reduction of court case backlogs, resettlement of a well
known Roma family, and possibly resolving the status of the
"erased." But, any push to start arbitration on the sea
border prior to the Presidency is not being seriously
considered in Ljubljana as all competent legal minds have
been drafted already to support the Presidency, and it would
be simply impossible for Slovenia to prepare its case in the
few months left in 2007. Given upcoming elections in
Croatia, it is probably less likely that the GOC would want
to move this forward at this time. Additionally, while a
move to arbitration may be inevitable, Slovenia will insist
that the entire border with Croatia be included - not just
the sea border.

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Comment
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9. (C) This long running dispute between Slovenia and
Croatia, after 15 years, has sounded more strident in
Slovenia recently. While each country's politicians use
aggressive and provocative language against the other country
to prove patriotic credentials and demonstrate
tough-mindedness in the best interests of the nation, for
some parties in Slovenia it is the only issue on which they
can get attention. Alternating political cycles guarantee
that there is never enough breathing space between elections
for both sides to develop more pragmatic positions.
Slovenia's PM Jansa has publicly chalked up the more recent
assertions from Croatia as unfortunate and clearly meant for
domestic political consumption.


10. (C) The last best chance at a bilateral solution was in
2001 when Slovenia's PM Janez Drnovsek and Croatian PM Ivica
Racan signed an agreement covering all the outstanding
issues. It was rejected by the Croatian Sabor as an
unacceptable failure, though it continues to be held up by
Slovenia as a workable compromise. In any future
negotiation, it is almost certain Slovenia will want to use
it as a touch point (though Croatia would reject this
proposition) when making the case for its claims. Recent
agreement among the majority of Slovenian political parties,
coalition and opposition alike, recognize that arbitration is
probably inevitable.


11. (C) Finally, despite political bluster, be it from minor
politicians or the Foreign Minister himself, the Government
of Slovenia will not hold up Croatia's EU membership over
unresolved border issues, and there has never been any
suggestion that NATO membership would be held up on these
grounds either. These same disputes existed three years ago
when Slovenia entered the European Union, and in practice,
Slovenia is providing every assistance to the GOC in its
efforts to join the EU. The GOS knows, however, that it must
work to tone down the domestic political rhetoric in order to
squash any attempt at calling a referendum on Croatia's EU
membership, which would be disastrous.


12. (U) Embassy Zagreb has cleared on this cable.
COLEMAN