PORTUGAL ON KOSOVO, BOSNIA, GEORGIA, AND RUSSIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LISBON 002959

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2016
TAGS: PREL EUN PGOV PINS RS MD GG BK SR KV PO
SUBJECT: PORTUGAL ON KOSOVO, BOSNIA, GEORGIA, AND RUSSIA

REF: A) LISBON 2916 B) LISBON 2771

Classified By: POL CHIEF TROY FITRELL, REASONS 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C/NF) Summary. According to MFA Director for European
Affairs Liliana Araujo, avoiding bloodshed in the Balkans is
one of Portugal's top EU presidency goals. Should Kosovars
declare independence in the near term, the Portuguese believe
the EU will be able to issue a statement that takes note of
the declaration, without recognizing it, thus freeing the
member states to act of their own volition. While Kosovo
deservedly receives the headlines, the Portuguese are equally
worried about Bosnia and precipitate action by Bosnian Serbs.
Georgia's backsliding on democracy is also of concern to the
Portuguese, who fear it may lead to unwelcome reactions by
Russia. End summary.


2. (U) Araujo provided us on November 15 a tour d'horizon of
issues related to Kosovo, Bosnia, Georgia, and Russia.
During the week of November 19-23, Araujo said she would
chair an EU Troika with Russia, an EU Troika with Moldova,
and the Eastern European Working Group (COEST).

Kosovo
--------------

3. (C/NF) Araujo said she is expecting a final proposal from
the negotiating troika (EU, U.S., and Russia) that ignores
the current or eventual status of Kosovo, but focuses on
details such as protection of minorities, access to
historical sites, free movement, economic issues, and justice
issues. She qualified her Foreign Minister's comment (Ref A)
that the EU is close to consensus "to outline EU support for
independence" to mean that the EU may issue a statement that
takes note of a unilateral declaration of independence (UDI),
rather than recognize it. (Note: In a separate meeting with
DCM, the Prime Minister's senior diplomatic advisor, Jorge
Roza de Oliveira, confirmed Portugal's intention -- if the
Troika efforts do not produce a negotiated settlement -- to
issue an anodyne statement post-December 10 noting a
declaration of independence that gives cover for recognition
by individual EU member states. He lamented that Kosovo was
the one issue during Portugal's presidency over which they
have no control. End note.)


4. (C/NF) In regard to the legal underpinning of any move,
she said each of the 27 EU member states had its own legal
regime, so analysis of whether UNSCR 1244 allows for
recognition of Kosovar independence, deployment of an ESDP
mission, or extension of a UN mandate is still ongoing. She
confirmed that there is a desire on the part of many member
states to get the ESDP mission into Kosovo as soon as
possible, and certainly before December 10. She noted that
unfortunately, like all other issues that require consensus,
a single state -- in this case Cyprus -- can hold this up and
no further movement is likely.


5. (C/NF) Noting that public statements regarding Kosovo's
future are rarely helpful, Araujo said that U/S Burn's public
statement regarding a "transition period" of a few months was
valuable and should help keep Kosovar emotions in check.

Bosnia
--------------

6. (C/NF) Araujo said that in the Portuguese view, Bosnia is
much more volatile than Kosovo and that there is a much
greater potential for bloodshed. Her Minister and the MFA
Coordinator for the region were in Bosnia November 14.
Although she had not yet received a full readout of the trip,
she said that her Minister had pressed the Republika Srpska
and the Muslim-Croat Federation leadership on the need to
avoid precipitate action. She relayed her fears that Bosnian
Serbs would use the Kosovo issue to initiate violence in
Bosnia.

Georgia
--------------

7. (C/NF) Araujo expressed a concern bordering on anger
regarding recent events in Georgia. President Saakashvili,
she posited, had backtracked on all of his commitments under
the European Neighborhood Policy and had returned Georgia to
dictatorship. She stressed that the EU and the U.S. need to
reject his actions firmly.


8. (C/NF) Araujo said the current EU statement on Georgia was
too weak, due to a few member states ("old and new" she said,
without naming them) that were not interested in taking a
tough line. One of the new member states, she said, was
pleased to use the issue to antagonize Russia. Nonetheless,
Araujo expected stronger language to emerge from the upcoming

LISBON 00002959 002 OF 002


GAERC, more in line with the EU's recent demarche on the
subject. Araujo worried that Saakashvili's actions could
spark aggression from Russia, particularly regarding Abkhazia.

Russia
--------------

9. (C/NF) On Russia, Araujo said the MFA went back and parsed
Putin's statements during the EU-Russia Summit regarding OSCE
election observers (Ref B). Putin had said, they found, that
he would invite observers consonant with the terms and
responsibilities of OSCE membership plus those limitations
stipulated by Russian law. Upon analyzing Putin's
statements, she said she was not surprised by the limitations
Putin had subsequently imposed.


10. (C/NF) Araujo also stated that Putin has found a solution
to Transdniestra that qualifies as a Russian victory. She
would not elaborate but said that it would be unveiled in
December.

Comment
--------------

11. (C/NF) Portugal's number one priority in the Balkans
during its presidency is to avoid a bloodletting. At the
same time, FM Amado has made it clear that he views
maintaining a unified EU response as a critical
responsibility during Portugal's EU leadership. Achievement
of a sustainable solution on Kosovo during Portugal's
presidency would in their view be optimal -- and Araujo and
her Minister are actively engaged toward that end. The
Portuguese recognize, however, that reaching as unified an EU
response as possible will likely require intense internal
discussion beyond the December 10 deadline, probably slipping
into the Slovenian presidency.
Hoffman