C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LISBON 002714

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2016
TAGS: PREL EUN PGOV IR RS UZ ZL PO
SUBJECT: PORTUGAL ON THE EU-RUSSIA SUMMIT

REF: MOSCOW 5117

Classified By: POL CHIEF TROY FITRELL, REASONS 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary. Portugal's October 25 bilateral meetings
with Russia will be designed to keep current relations warm.
Even the October 26 EU-Russia summit will discuss issues
generally and in a relatively short format. The Portuguese
noted, however, that they do not see the December 10 deadline
as an end to Kosovo negotiations, suggesting that the review
of the report and subsequent action may take months. The
Portuguese believe Russia will accept an abbreviated OSCE
election monitoring mission for the December 2 Duma
elections. End summary.


2. (U) In a pair of tour d'horizon meetings, Portuguese MFA
Europe Director Liliana Araujo and the Foreign Minister's
Diplomatic Adviser for Europe Rita Laranjinha discussed the
October 26 EU-Russia Summit and related topics.

Portugal-Russia
--------------

3. (U) President Putin is scheduled to arrive October 25,
which will be dedicated primarily to bilateral meetings. He
will have consecutive courtesy calls on President Cavaco
Silva and Prime Minister Socrates, followed by the
inauguration of the Hermitage Museum exhibit in Lisbon. Also
on October 25, in the first EU-Russia event of the visit, the
Portuguese and Russian Ministers of Culture will participate
at a Permanent Partnership Council dedicated to cultural
issues.


4. (C/NF) Araujo noted that Portuguese-Russian relations are
relatively warm and Cavaco Silva and Socrates are not
expected to raise contentious issues at the bilateral
meetings. She continued, however, that as they would meet
without a specific agenda, one could not discount that either
Cavaco Silva or Socrates would press specific points.

EU-Russia Summit Atmospherics
--------------

5. (C) Both interlocutors noted that the EU-Russia Summit
would be short, including a working session of two hours and

a 90 minute lunch. Attendees will include Socrates,
President of the European Commission Durao Barroso, and High
Representative Solana. Araujo said the working session would
be dedicated to the four EU-Russia common spaces: economic,
justice/security, external security, and research/education.
The lunch, she said, would be dedicated to regional and
international issues, specifically Kosovo, Iran, the Middle
East Peace Process, and Burma.


6. (C/NF) Laranjinha told us that the October 26 EU-Russia
Summit would not be heavily substantive. She quoted Minister
Amado as suggesting that it was a "transition summit" given
upcoming Duma and presidential elections in Russia and
political uncertainties in several EU member states. Araujo
later added that Portugal's goal was to lay the groundwork
for a genuine dialogue, so that future such meetings could go
farther in addressing difficult issues. At this summit,
Laranjinha said there would be a deliverable on cultural
issues, but not on narcotics trafficking, as had been
originally hoped.


7. (C/NF) Laranjinha said that she understood that Russia had
informally agreed to allow the OSCE to send an observation
mission for the December 2 Duma elections, and she confirmed
the issue would be raised during the summit. Araujo later
said that it was already too late for a traditional OSCE
monitoring mission, but that a short-term mission to cover
the actual election day was likely.


8. (C/NF) Araujo noted that Russia had requested CFE be on
the agenda, but that the EU had refused. Araujo had told us
on another occasion that other fora were more appropriate.
Nonetheless, the EU was prepared for Putin to raise the topic
anyway and would stress only that Russia should not suspend
implementation of CFE while current discussions were ongoing.


9. (C/NF) Araujo also noted that energy would be discussed
during the economic common space discussions but it would be
at a general level. When specifically pressed on
transparency in energy investments and on the southern
corridor, she said the discussions would not reach such a
level of detail.

Kosovo
--------------

10. (C/NF) Laranjinha said that the Serbs had already
released a statement to end speculation that they would

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support a parallel election process in Kosovo, either
concurrent with or after the November 17 Kosovo elections.
Laranjinha said Serbia's entire justification for its
territorial sovereignty argument was based on its reading of
UNSCR 1244. Thus, she said that given that any elections in
Kosovo not supervised by the international community are
specifically prohibited by 1244 left Belgrade with little
other choice.


11. (C/NF) Laranjinha stressed the EU's usual points that no
one must prejudge the troika negotiations until they are
complete, but added that a December 10 report could not be
considered an "end." This report, she posited, must be
reviewed and acted upon. She then noted that "some suggest"
that the review and negotiation process continue until the
NATO Bucharest Summit in April 2008. We responded strongly
to both Laranjinha and Araujo that the troika discussions
were not open-ended, and that discussion of extensive delays
would contribute to instability rather than prevent it.


12. (C/NF) Laranjinha said Minister Amado appreciated the
entry of Swedish Foreign Minister Bildt into the discussions,
given his deep experience in the region. From the Portuguese
optic, however, Sweden had taken no leadership role regarding
any particular policy regarding Kosovo's future.

Iran
--------------

13. (C/NF) Araujo noted her belief that Russia did not want a
nuclear-armed Iran. The differences between Russia's
positions and those of the EU or U.S. is perceptions of
Iran's current and future capabilities. Araujo said that the
EU would push Russia to be active and responsible regarding
Iran. It was the EU's position, Araujo noted, that IAEA
cooperation was welcome, but that Iran must conform to UNSCR
demands regarding uranium enrichment.

Central Asia
--------------

14. (C/NF) Following her comment on laying the groundwork for
dialogue with Russia, Araujo noted that Portugal's engagement
with Uzbekistan -- built on the German presidency's earlier
efforts -- was the "hidden success" of Portugal's presidency.
Araujo mentioned Nagorno-Karabakh as one of the other
Central Asian issues that she found troubling. Araujo noted
that she would chair a troika on Central Asia in Brussels
October 29 and would greatly appreciate U.S. questions and
comments in advance in order to be properly prepared.

Comment
--------------

15. (C) Based on these meetings and a face-to-face discussion
between Ambassador Hoffman and Foreign Minister Amado today
(septel), it appears that the Portuguese are intent on making
the same points that we would make, albeit not as assertively
as we would like. Our interlocutors, perhaps anticipating
criticism of the objectives for the summit, were careful to
note that the EU-Russia agenda was developed in Brussels, not
in Lisbon. We were struck by Laranjinha's report that some
in the EU are suggesting that Kosovo negotiations may
continue through April. That is the first reference to the
need for a sustained extension beyond December 10 we have
heard from anyone in the Portuguese government. Although we
disputed that point forcefully and will continue to do so, we
wonder whether this idea is being promoted within the EU, and
by whom.
Hoffman