PORTUGAL'S VIEWS IN ADVANCE OF THE OCTOBER 15- 16

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LISBON 002613 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/11/2017 TAGS: YI RS KPAL PREL PGOV ETRD ETTC EUN PO SUBJECT: PORTUGAL'S VIEWS IN ADVANCE OF THE OCTOBER 15- 16 FOREIGN MINISTERS MEETING (GAERC) REF: SECSTATE 141316 LISBON 00002613 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Dana M. Brown, Political Officer, Embassy Lisbon Reason 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (U) In advance of the October 15-16 GAERC, Deputy EU Correspondent Ana Filomena Rocha responded with Portugal's views on reftel U.S. policy interests including Kosovo, Russia, Libya, the Middle East, Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Chad, and Burma. She noted that the ministers will return to the issue of the upcoming EU-Africa Summit in December. ¶2. (C) Kosovo: Rocha predicted that discussions regarding Kosovo would be brief and show clear support for current talks. She stated that the conclusions have already been drafted, and that next week's discussion will likely focus on the present rather than post December 10 plans. ¶3. (C) Russia: Rocha outlined the agenda for the upcoming EU-Russia Summit and stressed that the GOP was not interested in raising the "non-EU" discussions of CFE and missile defense despite Russia's request. She reported that Kosovo, Moldova, the Middle East peace process, Georgia, and Burma were the main agenda issues to date. Although the EU and Russia will exchange deliverables, Rocha said they will not sign a joint statement since the parties could not agree on a text. She stated that the GOP strongly agrees that we cannot make concessions to Russia on one issue in exchange for movement on another. Rocha also speculated that the OSCE would not have an election observer mission for the Duma elections, either due to Russia's imposition of extensive conditions or Russia using behind-the-scenes pressure on the OSCE. ¶4. (C) Libya: Rocha predicted that the EU would soon begin a cooperation mechanism akin to the EU's agreement with South Africa. Such a mechanism would likely cover a broad range of development, human rights, trade, and social issues, tailored to the interests of the parties. Although Rocha did not have an estimated timeline for when an agreement would be in place, she mentioned that the South Africa agreement stalled over agriculture disputes for quite a while. The pace of negotiations depends primarily on trade restrictions, she noted. ¶5. (C) Middle East and Lebanon: According to Rocha, the Middle East discussions will be limited to the draft 
conclusions, which welcome the new dialogue between Abbas and Olmert, praise the opportunity presented by the meetings, and set the stage for the November meeting. She added that the Lebanon border mission proposal is stalled for now in the pre-planning stages and is unlikely to move anytime soon. Chad and Central African Republic are the main focus at this time, she said, and the EU is concerned about overextending itself. ¶6. (SBU) Iraq: Portugal agrees with reftel points on Iraq. Rocha reported that the Iraq discussion would probably be a brief recap rather than a heated debate. ¶7. (C) Iran: The EU has already spent several days arguing over the way forward on Iran, according to Rocha. She reported that the UK and France were pushing to send a strong message to Iran while others, including Portugal, want to wait for the IAEA report before taking any new steps. Rocha cautioned that Iran would use any excuse, including a new EU message, as an indication that El Baradei's report was not a fair assessment. Once the IAEA presents its findings, Rocha agreed that the EU would be prepared to respond with the appropriate sanctions, should they prove necessary. (Comment: Ambassador is reaching out to FM Amado today to urge EU Foreign Ministers to issue a strong statement at the GAERC calling for both a third UNSCR as well as autonomous measures if the El Baradei report in November is not positive. End comment.) ¶8. (C) Chad: EU preparations are moving forward for the ESDP mission and the force should be in place by the end of the year at the latest. Portugal's participation in the ESDP mission will be decided by the Ministries of Defense and the Interior. Rocha stated that, Portugal was likely to either refrain from sending troops due to resource shortages or send a small, symbolic contribution at best. ¶9. (C) Burma: Since Portugal does not have an embassy in Burma, France is taking the lead on making recommendations to the Portuguese Presidency. France has begun adding names to the visa ban list, is proposing a gradual increase of sanctions, and recommends the addition of sanctions against LISBON 00002613 002.2 OF 002 gems, precious metals, and wood exports. Rocha noted that the EU had targeted these industries because they would affect the government more than the general population and would be an immediate reaction to the recent crackdown. She mentioned that the EU had contacted ASEAN, Russia, China, and others to coordinate a common position but had not been able to agree on a joint approach. ¶10. (C) EU-Africa Summit: Rocha reported that the UK again sought to discuss Zimbabwe in this month's GAERC. FM Amado will report on his visit to South Africa and plans to mention the constitutional reform in Zimbabwe that Mbeki supported as a modest improvement. Regarding Summit invitations, Rocha stated flatly that the GOP would invite every nation and "European nations will have to decide for themselves whether or not to come." Hoffman