PORTUGAL'S VIEWS IN ADVANCE OF THE OCTOBER 15- 16

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LISBON 002613

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/11/2017
TAGS: YI RS KPAL PREL PGOV ETRD ETTC EUN PO
SUBJECT: PORTUGAL'S VIEWS IN ADVANCE OF THE OCTOBER 15- 16
FOREIGN MINISTERS MEETING (GAERC)

REF: SECSTATE 141316

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Classified By: Dana M. Brown, Political Officer, Embassy Lisbon
Reason 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (U) In advance of the October 15-16 GAERC, Deputy EU
Correspondent Ana Filomena Rocha responded with Portugal's
views on reftel U.S. policy interests including Kosovo,
Russia, Libya, the Middle East, Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Chad,
and Burma. She noted that the ministers will return to the
issue of the upcoming EU-Africa Summit in December.


2. (C) Kosovo: Rocha predicted that discussions regarding
Kosovo would be brief and show clear support for current
talks. She stated that the conclusions have already been
drafted, and that next week's discussion will likely focus on
the present rather than post December 10 plans.


3. (C) Russia: Rocha outlined the agenda for the upcoming
EU-Russia Summit and stressed that the GOP was not interested
in raising the "non-EU" discussions of CFE and missile
defense despite Russia's request. She reported that Kosovo,
Moldova, the Middle East peace process, Georgia, and Burma
were the main agenda issues to date. Although the EU and
Russia will exchange deliverables, Rocha said they will not
sign a joint statement since the parties could not agree on a
text. She stated that the GOP strongly agrees that we cannot
make concessions to Russia on one issue in exchange for
movement on another. Rocha also speculated that the OSCE
would not have an election observer mission for the Duma
elections, either due to Russia's imposition of extensive
conditions or Russia using behind-the-scenes pressure on the
OSCE.


4. (C) Libya: Rocha predicted that the EU would soon begin a
cooperation mechanism akin to the EU's agreement with South
Africa. Such a mechanism would likely cover a broad range of
development, human rights, trade, and social issues, tailored
to the interests of the parties. Although Rocha did not have
an estimated timeline for when an agreement would be in
place, she mentioned that the South Africa agreement stalled
over agriculture disputes for quite a while. The pace of
negotiations depends primarily on trade restrictions, she
noted.


5. (C) Middle East and Lebanon: According to Rocha, the
Middle East discussions will be limited to the draft
conclusions, which welcome the new dialogue between Abbas and
Olmert, praise the opportunity presented by the meetings, and
set the stage for the November meeting. She added that the
Lebanon border mission proposal is stalled for now in the
pre-planning stages and is unlikely to move anytime soon.
Chad and Central African Republic are the main focus at this
time, she said, and the EU is concerned about overextending
itself.


6. (SBU) Iraq: Portugal agrees with reftel points on Iraq.
Rocha reported that the Iraq discussion would probably be a
brief recap rather than a heated debate.


7. (C) Iran: The EU has already spent several days arguing
over the way forward on Iran, according to Rocha. She
reported that the UK and France were pushing to send a strong
message to Iran while others, including Portugal, want to
wait for the IAEA report before taking any new steps. Rocha
cautioned that Iran would use any excuse, including a new EU
message, as an indication that El Baradei's report was not a
fair assessment. Once the IAEA presents its findings, Rocha
agreed that the EU would be prepared to respond with the
appropriate sanctions, should they prove necessary.
(Comment: Ambassador is reaching out to FM Amado today to
urge EU Foreign Ministers to issue a strong statement at the
GAERC calling for both a third UNSCR as well as autonomous
measures if the El Baradei report in November is not
positive. End comment.)


8. (C) Chad: EU preparations are moving forward for the ESDP
mission and the force should be in place by the end of the
year at the latest. Portugal's participation in the ESDP
mission will be decided by the Ministries of Defense and the
Interior. Rocha stated that, Portugal was likely to either
refrain from sending troops due to resource shortages or send
a small, symbolic contribution at best.


9. (C) Burma: Since Portugal does not have an embassy in
Burma, France is taking the lead on making recommendations to
the Portuguese Presidency. France has begun adding names to
the visa ban list, is proposing a gradual increase of
sanctions, and recommends the addition of sanctions against

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gems, precious metals, and wood exports. Rocha noted that
the EU had targeted these industries because they would
affect the government more than the general population and
would be an immediate reaction to the recent crackdown. She
mentioned that the EU had contacted ASEAN, Russia, China, and
others to coordinate a common position but had not been able
to agree on a joint approach.


10. (C) EU-Africa Summit: Rocha reported that the UK again
sought to discuss Zimbabwe in this month's GAERC. FM Amado
will report on his visit to South Africa and plans to mention
the constitutional reform in Zimbabwe that Mbeki supported as
a modest improvement. Regarding Summit invitations, Rocha
stated flatly that the GOP would invite every nation and
"European nations will have to decide for themselves whether
or not to come."
Hoffman