PORTUGAL VIEWS IN ADVANCE OF THE SEPTEMBER 7-8

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LISBON 002303 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/05/2017 TAGS: YI RS PGOV PREL PO EUN SUBJECT: PORTUGAL VIEWS IN ADVANCE OF THE SEPTEMBER 7-8 INFORMAL FOREIGN MINISTERS MEETING (GYMNICH) REF: A. LISBON 2200 ¶B. LISBON 2046 ¶C. SECSTATE 123576 Classified By: Dana M. Brown, Political Officer, Embassy Lisbon Reason 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (U) Portuguese Deputy EU Correspondent Ana Filomena Rocha offered Portugal's views on reftel U.S. policy interests regarding Kosovo, Russia, Georgia, China, India, and the Middle East. She also mentioned that the ministers will take up a discussion on Lebanon and Burma during their two days of meetings. ¶2. (C) Kosovo: In stark contrast to what Portuguese Special Envoy to the Balkens Tanger Correa and Political Director Bramao Ramos told us (Refs A and B),Rocha claimed that EU member states would not be able to deploy an ESDP mission to Kosovo without a UN resolution (see comment). She asked what the U.S. envisioned as the legal basis to allow the process to move forward in the absence of a UN resolution and agreed that the status quo was not sustainable. She remarked that it was known the Serb and Kosovar positions were completely at odds and so she did not see how an accord between the two sides could be reached. Rocha speculated that the ministers would focus at the Gymnich on how to proceed after the December 10 deadline. She noted that there is no consensus within the EU on how to respond if Kosovo unilaterally declares independence. ¶3. (C) Russia: Rocha concurred that the upcoming Duma elections would not meet international standards as defined by the West but then cautioned that Russia is a new democracy and should not be held to the same standards as more established democracies. She remarked that the EU was not particularly keen to see a large OSCE observer mission before the Duma elections because much of the election rigging would be complete long before observers arrived. Moreover Rocha underscored her concern that several EU members, particularly the UK, Poland, and some Baltic states, were pushing to take a hard line with Russia on "minor bilateral issues" and were thus wasting EU influence. She stressed that the international community needed Russia to resolve issues like Kosovo, the frozen conflicts, and Iran, and therefore should not antagonize on less important things. ¶4. (C) The Middle East: Rocha predicted that the discussion of Iran's nuclear program would be part of a broader Middle East overview. She said ministers would probably discuss the way forward on the Middle East Peace Process, troubling signs about instability in the Siniora government, and the status of Iraqi refugees in Syria. Rocha speculated that the ministers would need to come up with strategies for how to shore up the Abbas government, and how to respond to the Hezbollah's efforts to rebuild infrastructure and public projects in south Lebanon. Rocha reiterated her personal doubts about Tony Blair's ability to play a useful role in the Peace Process, given Palestinian skepticism regarding his impartiality. ¶5. (C) Georgia: Lithuania and Estonia requested that Portugal add Georgia to the agenda, according to Rocha. She stated that Portugal has no interest in taking sides on the missile incident in Georgia until the OSCE reviews all of the facts. After noting her concerns about the objectivity of the OSCE review panel, she confided her personal suspicions that the missile incident fell "conveniently" on the eve of a Joint Control Commission (JCC) in a possible Georgian attempt to sway the process. The EU has no interest in further inflaming the issue but will discuss it at the Gymnich. ¶6. (SBU) China: Portugal wants to use this discussion to work out two key issues in advance of the EU-China summit: economic market compliance and the embargo on arms sales. Rocha claimed that the China will either comply or fail to comply with the EU standards but that it was important to avoid poisoning negotiations. Regarding the EU arms embargo, she reported that about 24 nations favored lifting sanctions and that the UK and Sweden were the main holdouts. As EU President, Portugal will remain neutral on this issue but believes that China has made progress on the human rights front and has moved past the issues that initially triggered the sanctions. Rocha further stated that the Gymnich discussions would raise China's emerging role in Africa -- an issue of particular interest to the Portuguese presidency. ¶7. (C) India: The EU-India Summit is likely to focus on LISBON 00002303 002 OF 002 economic and commercial engagement rather than political issues such as Burma, Nepal, Afghanistan, or nuclear weapons. Unlike Japan and China, the EU does not have special working groups with India to engage in detailed discussions. Rocha remarked that India had reluctantly agreed to include political issues on the summit agenda. ¶8. (C) Additional Agenda Items: Portugal has added Burma to the agenda under "other business" in response to a UK request. Rocha stressed that the discussion would likely rehash the traditional concerns about the poor human rights situation but would probably not advance much beyond that. She also mentioned that the ministers will pronounce on the intergovernmental meeting from September 5. ¶9. (C) EU-Africa Summit: Rocha commented that the UK sought to link the possibility of Mugabe attending the Summit with the broader discussion of holding the meeting in December. She asserted that the issue had been discussed at length and that Portugal stood by the position that Zimbabwe must be invited as an African nation. "The EU sanctions have failed. Period," stated Rocha, "and African nations only close ranks around Mugabe if he is attacked." She added that Mugabe is a hero to Africans, who view any attempt by the EU to restrict who represents Zimbabwe at the Summit as evidence of neo-colonialist attitude. Nevertheless, the ministers are expected to discuss the invitation again. When Poloff raised the issue of the September 3 Ferraro-Waldner statement proposing that Zimbabwean Foreign Minister Mumbengegwi attend, Rocha said she doubted that the UK or the Netherlands would agree with that proposal. (Note: British interlocutors have, in fact, told the GOP that they would accept "anyone but Mugabe," including the FM. Also, her comment that, "Sanctions have failed," is nowhere to be found in any GOP policy. End note.) ¶10. (C) Comment: As usual, in addition to GOP policy viewpoints, Rocha offered personal opinions, which do not necessarily reflective of GOP thinking. At this meeting, Rocha was less guarded than usual as she was pressed to depart for the Gymnich meeting. On Kosovo in particular, Rocha's comments completely contradicted high-level MFA statements that the GOP was looking for ways that 1244 could allow for an ESDP mission. Rocha's apparent lack of familiarity with the Foreign Minister's current efforts caught Post by surprise, but she has been wrong on Kosovo policy reporting before. To her credit, most of her comments on internal EU thinking on other issues such as passing sanctions against Iran and human rights issues have been on target. Post does believe her comments on the Russia-Georgia incident are reflective of Portuguese thinking, though no other official is willing to offer an opinion before the OSCE report is complete. End comment. Hoffman