PORTUGUESE PRIME MINISTER SOCRATES HEADS TO MOSCOW

C O N F I D E N T I A L LISBON 001492 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT PASS TO EUR/WE KEVIN OPSTRUP E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL ECIN OFDP EIND EINV EPET ETRD EUN PO, RS, YI SUBJECT: PORTUGUESE PRIME MINISTER SOCRATES HEADS TO MOSCOW REF: A. LISBON 01328 ¶B. LISBON 01814 Classified By: TIFFANY McGRIFF, P/E OFFICER, EMBASSY LISBON, Reasons 1.4(b) and 1.4(d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: A month before Portugal assumes the EU Presidency and on the heels of the May EU-Russia Summit, PM Jose Socrates will travel to Moscow May 27-29 to discuss easing EU-Russia tensions and strengthening bilateral ties. Socrates will also encourage Putin to support UNSC consensus on Kosovo, according to an MFA official who added that a Russian veto could result in a "disastrous outcome" and push Kosovo to declare unilateral independence. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) PM Jose Socrates will travel to Moscow on May 27-29 at the invitation of President Putin and will stay at the Kremlin, according to GOP sources. Socrates, who has traveled extensively in preparation for Portugal's upcoming EU Presidency, decided to go instead of FM Amado to underscore the importance Portugal places on bilateral and EU-Russian relations, MFA Director for European Affairs Liliana Araujo told us. The Prime Minister will be accompanied by a delegation of 53 business entrepreneurs and officials including representatives from Portugal's state-owned gas company Galp Energia, and aerospace systems development company Edisoft. ¶3. (C) Socrates will focus on easing EU-Russia tensions and laying the groundwork for the EU-Russia Summit it is hosting in October. The Moscow agenda is heavy and includes an agreement on an early warning system for potential energy cuts by Russia. Araujo added that the GOP considers itself better positioned to improve EU-Russian relations during its presidency because Russia views Portugal as more even-handed than Germany. Bilaterally, officials from Galp Energia and Russia's state-owned Gazprom hope to sign a deal on joint-exploration projects and liquefied natural gas procurement (ref B). Portugal's Edisoft also hopes to sign an agreement with the Russian space agency. ¶4. (C) Kosovo is also high on Socrates's agenda. According to MFA political director Vasco Bramao Ramos, the GOP strongly supports Ahtisaari's proposal for monitored Kosovo independence and has made this clear to the Russians repeatedly and at all levels. Socrates is expected to reiterate the message that Russia needs to join consensus soon on the UN Security Council Resolution. If not, Kosovo may unilaterally declare independence, an act which Ramos believes would be the "most disastrous outcome" and set an unhelpful precedent for the region. ¶5. (C) While the GOP supports the Ahtisaari proposal, some officials believe that the implementation process should not be "rushed," as moving too quickly could make the Russians less inclined to come on board. Many in the GOP doubt that the UNSC resolution will be adopted by the end of May and fully expect to inherit the Kosovo issue when Portugal assumes the EU Presidency in July (ref A). The GOP is therefore, according to Araujo, working on a contingency plan. Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) Socrates and FM Amado have traveled heavily in preparation for the EU presidency. Their focus has mostly been on building relationships with key players rather than pressing any particular policy agendas or outcomes. That approach is standard fare for the Portuguese in the foreign policy arena, as they are rarely out front in staking out positions on most global issues of importance. That is the approach we suspect Socrates will take in Moscow, prodding to see where progress can be made on the more problematic issues in the EU-Russia relationship, while avoiding assertive rhetoric both in public and private. The one issue he will push hard on is Kosovo, as the Portuguese agree with us that the Russians need to come on board soon in support of the UN Security Council Resolution. Their biggest fear is a unilateral declaration of independence by the Kosovars and the consequences of such a move. END COMMENT. Hoffman