FM AMADO TO ATTEND RAMOS-HORTA INAUGURATION IN DILI

C O N F I D E N T I A L LISBON 001387 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/17/2017 TAGS: MARR PREL PO TL SUBJECT: FM AMADO TO ATTEND RAMOS-HORTA INAUGURATION IN DILI Classified By: Dep P/E Counselor Cari Enav for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) Summary: ¶1. (C) FM Luis Amado will travel to Dili to attend the inauguration of President-elect Jose Ramos Horta on May 20. The Timorese have relied on the Portuguese Embassy there to provide protocolary guidance for this low-key event. No formal invitation was extended, but Amado decided to make the trip now because no Portuguese representative will be able to attend the larger August 30 celebration (Anniversary of the Popular Consultation). The MFA was reluctant to predict the outcome of the June 30 legislative elections, but noted that there would be challenges whether Fretilin or the CDRT won. Amado will also be meeting with UN Special Representative Atul Khare (who will be traveling to Lisbon next week) and Alkatiri. He will encourage all parties to maintain political stability and to focus on security, development and refugees. ¶2. (C) Despite a very hectic travel schedule, FM Luis Amado will travel to Dili to attend the inauguration of President-elect Jose Ramos Horta on May 20. No formal invitation was extended for this low-key event, but Amado decided to make the trip now because Portugal wanted to demonstrate its support for the new government and no Portuguese representative will be able to attend the larger August 30 celebration (Anniversary of the Popular Consultation). Other foreign dignitaries in attendance will include a representative of the Indonesian President and possibly an official from Australia, according to the MFA Diplomatic Advisor for Asian and African Affairs Carolina Cordeiro. In his scheduled meetings with Jose Ramos-Horta, Mari Alkatiri, and UN Special Representative Atul Khare (who will be traveling to Lisbon next week),Amado will underscore the importance of political stability and the need to focus on security, development, and refugees once parliamentary elections are over. ¶3. (C) Cordeiro noted Portugal had not favored a particular candidate and that the Portuguese government was pleased with how well the second round of elections were conducted (she herself was surprised at how smoothly things went), especially given the several complaints regarding the less than optimal organization of the first round. She quickly added that none of the reported irregularities would have affected the ultimate outcome of the elections. ¶4. (C) Looking to the June 30 parliamentary elections, Cordeiro said that she could not predict which party ) Fretilin, CDRT or some combination of opposition parties ) would win, but that the country would face political challenges regardless. The deep-seated animosity between Ramos-Horta and Alkatiri would make it difficult for the two to work together if Fretilin won, and there could be balance of power issues unhelpful to democratic consolidation should Fretilin lose. ¶5. (C) With regard to Portugal,s current contribution of 288 paramilitary officers to UNMIT, Cordeiro noted that the government was committed to remaining in East Timor until September 2007 and would reevaluate deployment at that time. ¶6. (C) Comment: East Timor remains a foreign relations priority for Portugal. The fact that FM Amado is willing to make the arduously long trip from Lisbon to Dili on the heels of a trip to Belgrade and just before a visit to Moscow is a reflection of the government,s support for the Timorese, regardless of those in power. The Timorese request for protocolary guidance on such issues as the order of vehicles, who should deliver remarks first, and where guests should be seated speaks volumes on the close bilateral ties. Cordeiro added that while Portugal recognizes that East Timor falls under Southeast Asia,s sphere of influence and that Australia is geographically closer and plays a more predominant role there, Portugal,s fondness for its former colony remains strong as does its desire to help establish a functioning democracy there. O'Neal