PERUVIANS WELCOME VENEZUELA REFERENDUM RESULTS AS

C O N F I D E N T I A L LIMA 003769

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/04/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL PE
SUBJECT: PERUVIANS WELCOME VENEZUELA REFERENDUM RESULTS AS
POSITIVE SIGN FOR DEMOCRACY

REF: A. LIMA 3720


B. LIMA 3655

Classified By: POL/C ALEXIS LUDWIG FOR REASONS 1.4 (D)


1. (C) Summary: Peruvian contacts inside and outside the
government have expressed surprise that the proposed
constitutional reform package in Venezuela was rejected by
voters, and some claim President Chavez was compelled to
concede because the margin was actually wider than reported.
Most Peruvians, including President Garcia, have welcomed the
result as a positive step for democracy in Venezuela and the
region. Analysts differ about whether the opposition's
victory represents a turning point vice a temporary setback
for Chavez's ambitions, and some suggest Chavez's democratic
credibility might (ironically) be boosted by his defeat.
Viewing Chavez through the Fujimori lens, many Peruvians
remain deeply skeptical of the Bolivarian project. End
Summary.

Referendum Outcome A Welcome Surprise
--------------

2. (C) Our Peruvian interlocutors have generally expressed
surprise at the rejection by Venezuelan voters of President
Chavez's proposed package of constitutional reforms. Many
had suspected that, whatever the indication of pre-referendum
polls, the BRV government would do what was necessary to
ensure victory (ref B). The prevailing view was that
intensive government participation in the campaign,
government-sponsored intimidation of "No" proponents and a
suspect electronic voting system would all but ensure victory
for "Yes". And if those things failed, there was always
outright fraud.


3. (C) Citing a well-informed analyst, one APRA insider
claimed privately that the "no" vote may have won by a much
wider margin than reported -- 60% to 40%-- and that the delay
in announcing the result was due to Chavez's intention either
to declare victory by sleight of hand or else to negotiate
his way to a face-saving margin of loss. Some news reports
noted a similar back-room dynamic, suggesting that the
Venezuelan President's military advisors had finally
prevailed upon him to concede defeat in order to prevent
widespread and potentially violent protests.

Positive Sign for Democracy
--------------

4. (C) Whatever their earlier doubts, many Peruvian observers
welcomed the victory of the "No" vote as a positive step for
democracy in Venezuela and the region. President Garcia
congratulated Chavez for "acting democratically" in conceding
defeat, and added that "no personal power that perpetuates
itself over a long period is positive... the Venezuelan
people have shown that they want a democracy that allows for
alternatives..." Prominent analyst and leader of the
National Accord, Max Hernandez, told polcouns that Venezuelan
voters had rejected Chavez's intention to remain in power
permanently, which reflected the deepening well of democratic
reserves in the region.


5. (U) Peru's media overwhelmingly reinforced this message.
Television news programs showed celebrations of the "No" camp
and covered the speeches of the student leaders most
responsible for it. December 3 editions of most newspapers
gave the results front-page coverage, featuring photos of a
chagrined Chavez. Editorials broadly praised the vote as
favoring democracy, and the prominent conservative daily El
Comercio described it as a "democratic coup against a
totalitarian project."

Democratic Turning Point...
--------------

6. (C) Opinion remains mixed, however, on whether the
referendum result marks a turning point for President
Chavez's mandate. One prominent analyst drew a direct
comparison of Chavez's first loss ever at the polls with the
waning days of President Fujimori's administration, when
student groups, ex-Fujimoristas, and the President's ex-wife
all joined together to topple an autocratic regime. If this
referendum is not the turning point, then the turning point

may be swiftly approaching, he wrote; on the other hand,
Fujimori was never buttressed by $100 per barrel oil prices.

...Or Temporary Setback
--------------

7. (C) Other observers emphasize Chavez's statement that he
has only lost "for now," pointing out that Chavez remains in
power and is unlikely to give up on his ambition to remain
President for life. Some even view his acceptance of the
vote as a tactical retreat that ironically boosts his
democratic credibility as he plots to undermine the election
results by other means. One contact said Chavez had clearly
learned the danger of rejecting the outcome of a popular vote
from Fujimori's experience rigging his own re-election in
2000, which unleashed a broad and unified opposition. By
accepting the results, Chavez has removed a potential
unifying factor, leaving him free to develop a Plan B for
reelection.

Comment: Chavez as Fujimori Plus
--------------

8. (C) Peruvians tend to view President Chavez's efforts to
consolidate power through the lens of their experience during
President Fujimori's government in the 1990s. A recent
national poll indicates that 70 percent of Peruvians view
Chavez as a dictator while 17 percent believe he is heading
in that direction. Having suffered through an authoritarian
experiment of their own, many Peruvians are inherently
suspicious of Chavez's undemocratic maneuvering. End Comment.
NEALON