SHINING PATH INMATES -- WHERE ARE THEY NOW?

C O N F I D E N T I A L LIMA 002560

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/24/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR PHUM SNAR PE
SUBJECT: SHINING PATH INMATES -- WHERE ARE THEY NOW?


Classified By: A/POLCON David Boyle, for Reasons 1.4 (c,d)


1. (C) Summary: A majority of NGOs, political analysts, and
former Sendero Luminoso (SL or Shining Path) members agree
that most terrorists released from Peruvian prisons in the
past six years have renounced armed struggle and are seeking
to reintegrate themselves into Peruvian society. A core of
SL true believers, numbering perhaps as many as 300 to 500,
remain committed to their ideology, but have changed tactics
and are pursuing their goals through membership in a variety
of civic organizations and university student groups. Public
officials have blamed remnants of Shining Path for
exacerbating the social conflicts that shook Peru in July.
While no evidence proves Shining Path influence was a primary
cause of the widespread strikes, government officials
continue to express concern that members of the group are
exploiting legitimte dissent to push a destructive political
agenda. End Summary.


2. (C) NGO contacts have told poloffs that from 2001 to
2007, hundreds of former Shining Path members were released
from prison after completing their sentences, while more than
700 remain incarcerated. Analysts agree that the vast
majority are uninterested in joining the armed struggle being
waged by Shining Path columns in the coca-producing areas of
the country. A former SL member told poloff that guerrillas
in coca-producing regions are uninterested in revolutionary
ideology and are nothing more than "thugs and
narco-traffickers."


3. (SBU) According to government officials, long-prison
sentences and the tragic consequences of a decade of
terrorism have caused the majority of former SL members, most
of whom operated on the fringes of the group, to rethink and
renounce their earlier views. But a committed core group
used their time in prison for additional political
indoctrination and emerged as hardened SL ideologues. Both
moderates and radicals are working with civic groups, such as
the national teacher union SUTEP, university and student
associations, and regional defense fronts.


4. (SBU) GOP officials say radical SL members had a hand in
exacerbating Peru's season of protest in July 2007. The
Secretary General of the ruling APRA party, Mauricio Mulder,

SIPDIS
said a "black hand," including PCP members and "Bolivarian
revolutionaries", incited many of the regional strikes. The
regional president of Apurimac, David Salazar, said SL
agitators turned protests in Andahuaylas violent. David
Rodriquez, the Director General of the Peruvian National
Police, said intelligence officers had identified SL
operatives in the demonstrations and were prepared to make
arrests, if violence continued. Press reports have linked
one of SUTEP's senior officials, Robert Huaynalaya -- whose
public statements on universal education for all Peruvians
echo SL tenets -- to SL, although Huaynalaya has never
claimed to be a member.


5. (SBU) Many hard-core former SL members are thought to be
joining the regional fronts that have formed throughout Peru,
particularly in the alitplano regions of Ayacucho, Junin,
Huanuco, Ucayli and Huancavelica. These regional fronts
serve as umbrella organizations uniting groups involved in
localized protests. Press reports say that the People's
Defense Front of Ayacucho and the Popular Defense Front of
Ucayli contain former SL members. So far, the regional
fronts have not united to form a larger movement, but Romulo
Coronado, Secretary General of the Defense Front of Ucayali,
says plans are underway to coordinate actions in the future.


6. (SBU) Comment: Estimates of the number of Shining Path
members are at best informed guesses, a fact even
well-informed NGOs recognize. Government officials,
moreover, admit privately that at least some innocent persons
went to jail under the harsh anti-terrorism laws enacted in

1992. Moreover, no evidence exists that SL members were the
primary movers behind any of the protests that took place the
past month in Peru, including the nationwide demonstrations
launched by SUTEP. At most, Peru's extremists, including SL
members, are catalysts, who can bring to boil previously
existing unrest. The challenge for the Garcia government is
to address the legitimate grievances underlying many
demonstrations before extremists hijack protests in the name
of revolutionary socialism. End Comment.
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