SHINING PATH INMATES -- WHERE ARE THEY NOW?

C O N F I D E N T I A L LIMA 002560 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/24/2016 TAGS: PGOV PINR PHUM SNAR PE SUBJECT: SHINING PATH INMATES -- WHERE ARE THEY NOW? Classified By: A/POLCON David Boyle, for Reasons 1.4 (c,d) ¶1. (C) Summary: A majority of NGOs, political analysts, and former Sendero Luminoso (SL or Shining Path) members agree that most terrorists released from Peruvian prisons in the past six years have renounced armed struggle and are seeking to reintegrate themselves into Peruvian society. A core of SL true believers, numbering perhaps as many as 300 to 500, remain committed to their ideology, but have changed tactics and are pursuing their goals through membership in a variety of civic organizations and university student groups. Public officials have blamed remnants of Shining Path for exacerbating the social conflicts that shook Peru in July. While no evidence proves Shining Path influence was a primary cause of the widespread strikes, government officials continue to express concern that members of the group are exploiting legitimte dissent to push a destructive political agenda. End Summary. ¶2. (C) NGO contacts have told poloffs that from 2001 to 2007, hundreds of former Shining Path members were released from prison after completing their sentences, while more than 700 remain incarcerated. Analysts agree that the vast majority are uninterested in joining the armed struggle being waged by Shining Path columns in the coca-producing areas of the country. A former SL member told poloff that guerrillas in coca-producing regions are uninterested in revolutionary ideology and are nothing more than "thugs and narco-traffickers." ¶3. (SBU) According to government officials, long-prison sentences and the tragic consequences of a decade of terrorism have caused the majority of former SL members, most of whom operated on the fringes of the group, to rethink and renounce their earlier views. But a committed core group used their time in prison for additional political indoctrination and emerged as hardened SL ideologues. Both moderates and radicals are working with civic groups, such as the national teacher union SUTEP, university and student associations, and regional defense fronts. ¶4. (SBU) GOP officials say radical SL members had a hand in exacerbating Peru's season of protest in July 2007. The Secretary General of the ruling APRA party, Mauricio Mulder, SIPDIS said a "black hand," including PCP members and "Bolivarian revolutionaries", incited many of the regional strikes. The regional president of Apurimac, David Salazar, said SL agitators turned protests in Andahuaylas violent. David Rodriquez, the Director General of the Peruvian National Police, said intelligence officers had identified SL operatives in the demonstrations and were prepared to make arrests, if violence continued. Press reports have linked one of SUTEP's senior officials, Robert Huaynalaya -- whose public statements on universal education for all Peruvians echo SL tenets -- to SL, although Huaynalaya has never claimed to be a member. ¶5. (SBU) Many hard-core former SL members are thought to be joining the regional fronts that have formed throughout Peru, particularly in the alitplano regions of Ayacucho, Junin, Huanuco, Ucayli and Huancavelica. These regional fronts serve as umbrella organizations uniting groups involved in localized protests. Press reports say that the People's Defense Front of Ayacucho and the Popular Defense Front of Ucayli contain former SL members. So far, the regional fronts have not united to form a larger movement, but Romulo Coronado, Secretary General of the Defense Front of Ucayali, says plans are underway to coordinate actions in the future. ¶6. (SBU) Comment: Estimates of the number of Shining Path members are at best informed guesses, a fact even well-informed NGOs recognize. Government officials, moreover, admit privately that at least some innocent persons went to jail under the harsh anti-terrorism laws enacted in ¶1992. Moreover, no evidence exists that SL members were the primary movers behind any of the protests that took place the past month in Peru, including the nationwide demonstrations launched by SUTEP. At most, Peru's extremists, including SL members, are catalysts, who can bring to boil previously existing unrest. The challenge for the Garcia government is to address the legitimate grievances underlying many demonstrations before extremists hijack protests in the name of revolutionary socialism. End Comment. STRUBLE STRUBLE