ANOTHER HUMALA AIMS AT 2011

UNCLAS LIMA 002126 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PINR PHUM VE PE SUBJECT: ANOTHER HUMALA AIMS AT 2011 REF: A. LIMA 1933 ¶B. LIMA 1841 ¶C. LIMA 1608 ¶D. LIMA 4698 (03) -------------- Summary: -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Antauro Humala, the jailed brother of former presidential candidate Ollanta Humala, has formed a political party and plans to run for President in 2011, according to his advisor Miguel Angel de la Puente. Antauro hopes to become the "outsider" candidate in the style of former Presidents Fujimori and Toledo, and plans to expand his appeal by moderating his image with bread-and-butter proposals for the poor. While the Venezuelans reportedly remain focused on Ollanta Humala, Antauro's movement is the one now generating buzz, particularly in impoverished areas. The next elections may be four years off, but Antauro's family pedigree and long-term strategy make him worth watching -- even now. End Summary. -------------- The Next Humala? -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The torch of family radicalism borne by Ollanta Humala in his near-win in Peru's 2006 presidential elections is being passed to his younger brother, Antauro, according to pro-cocalero Congressional advisor Miguel Angel de la Puente (protect). Particularly if the current government fails to deliver on its promises, De la Puente (like other observers) believes Antauro could become the next successful "outsider" presidential candidate in the style of former presidents Fujimori and Toledo, and like his brother Ollanta in 2006. De la Puente told us Antauro had tapped him to help draft the statutes for Antauro's newly formed political party, the United Ethnocacerista Revolutionary Party of Peru (PERU). (For details on the Ethnocaceristas' ideas, see Ref D.) The new PERU party is scheduled to hold its founding meeting in Cusco on June 22-23. ¶3. (SBU) In the past, de la Punete has proved to be a source of mixed value, reporting some things acurately, but letting his personal hopes or views distort somewhat his accounts. This time, however, his comments tracked with subsequent press reports as well as with the recent reflections of pro-Ollanta Congressman Isaac Mekler (Ref C),Humala Clan patriarch Isaac Humala (Ref B),missionary Alejandro Cavero (who is well connected in Andahuaylas, the site of Antauro's former attempted revolt),and from observations made by Poloff on a recent trip to Puno (septel). Both Andahuaylas and Puno represent the kind of neglected, southern sierra areas that voted overwhelmingly for Ollanta Humala in June ¶2006. -------------- Taking the Long View -------------- ¶4. (SBU) In contrast to Ollanta Humala's quickly slapping together a mass movement and immediately aiming for the presidency, PERU party followers are looking long-term, and intend to use the next four years to train ideologically committed Ethnocacerista candidates for Congress. While they would like to see Antauro win the presidency, that is not their sole or immediate ambition, according to de la Puente. (Antauro was jailed in 2005 for leading an attempted insurrection in Andahuaylas in which four policemen were killed, but he has not been convicted. Various sources have told us that, if he is not sentenced by a certain date, Antauro could be released to house arrest in December under Peru's rules for detainees pending trial.) If Antauro is legally disqualified from running, the PERU party will nominate an alternate candidate and focus its energies on electing a critical mass of congressional representatives instead. In that sense, even if the party fails to win the presidency, it intends to build a durable political opposition movement from within the system. -------------- Prison as Pulpit/A "New Antauro" -------------- ¶5. (SBU) De la Puente said that Antauro sees his present status as a prisoner awaiting trial as a strategic advantage. While jailed, Antauro has produced numerous articles and at least one book, symbolizing his party's discipline, unrelenting commitment to its ideals an focus on the disenfranchised. To lay the groundwork for the new PERU party, the Ethnocaceristas are taking a number of steps, according to de la Puente: -- They are creating "a new Antauro" who is more moderate and committed to democratic elections. -- During their upcoming founding congress, the PERU Party will reach out to other sectors, like street sellers, various local and regional "defense fronts" and other representatives of the dispossessed in order to broaden his appeal beyond the current ideological core. -- The PERU party plans to offer bread-and-butter proposals to win voters, including vouchers for education to enable workers to study in the evening; new labor regulations to formalize more workers and guarantee them benefits; and state programs to create jobs (presumably through public investment). The stated goal of these proposals is to "to lift up the Andean and Andean-Mestizo Man." -------------- The Radicals View: GOP Discredited -------------- ¶6. (SBU) De la Puente claimed that, with Ollanta Humala a spent force, Antauro was now well positioned to move into the leadership vacuum of the Peruvian left following the APRA government's move to the center-right. Not uncharacteristically for an opposition figure, De la Puente sees Peru's glass today as half-empty: Congress and the political class are sullied by scandals (Ref A),the government is not following through with its campaign promises, and Garcia's own poll numbers are dropping in spite of a year of near-ideal external conditions, including relative social peace, a cooperative Congress and a growing economy. (Comment: Other analysts see Peru's glass as more than half full under Garcia, and most fall somewhere in between the two poles. End Comment.) -------------- Caracas Behind the Curve? -------------- ¶7. (SBU) The Venezuelans reportedly remain focused on Ollanta Humala. Asked about Venezuelan support for Antauro, de la Puente said that Virly Torres, DCM of the Venezuelan Embassy, continues to back Ollanta and markets him to President Hugo Chavez as Peru,s main opposition figure. De la Puente expects this will change once the Venezuelans see that Antauro is the next emerging radical force. ¶8. (SBU) Other sources echo the notion that Antauro's profile is rising. Peruvian Nationalist Party Congressman Isaac Mekler told Poloffs recently that Ollanta Humala was worried that his brother Antauro's prospective release into house arrest could destabilize Peruvian politics and undercut Ollanta's efforts to promote his own movement (Ref C). While visiting Puno in early June, Poloff found that Antauro was generating a far greater political buzz than Ollanta in that region (septel). Alejandro Cavero, an American missionary who has contact with scores of Evangelical Christian pastors around Andahuaylas in the department of Apurimac, told Poloff recently that Antauro enjoys significant latent popularity in that area. "He could fill the plaza tomorrow, if he visited Andahuaylas," Cavero commented. -------------- Comment: Keeping Antauro Under Observation -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Antauro Humala remains a long way from building a system-threatening national organization, the GOP remains reasonably strong, and the next national elections are four years off. Nonetheless, recent Peruvian history affords too many examples of former fringe, "outsider" candidates who, capitalizing on the discontents of the dispossessed, either win or almost win the presidency. Antauro's family pedigree in radical politics, his brother's near-win in 2006 with a fly-by-night political structure, his solid core of Ethnocacerista followers, and his painstaking preparation in the context of a calculated long-term strategy make him worth keeping under watch -- even now. STRUBLE