HUMALA PATRIARCH LAYS OUT STRATEGY FOR "REVOLT OF

UNCLAS LIMA 001841 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PTER PINR SNAR PE SUBJECT: HUMALA PATRIARCH LAYS OUT STRATEGY FOR "REVOLT OF THE MASSES" REF: A. LIMA 1709 ¶B. LIMA 248 (06) ¶C. LIMA 37 (05) ¶D. LIMA 4968 (03) Sensitive But Unclassified, Please Handle Accordingly. -------------- Summary: -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Isaac Humala, patriarch of the clan that produced Ollanta Humala, recently described to us his movement's plans to undermine the Garcia Government. Humala (pere) has created a philosophy called "Ethnocacerism" holding that Peru's oppressed masses must bring back a pro-indigenous, pro-coca, statist regime that recasts the Inca Empire in modern form. Humala referred to a recent trip to Caracas and asserted that radical groups would work to undermine the Garcia government in order to lay the groundwork for a democratic "revolt of the masses," a Peruvian version of the elections that put Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and Bolivian President Evo Morales in power. While the elder Humala's ideas may seem eccentric to outsiders, they appear to resonate in the rural, highlands areas of Peru where the state's presence is minimal. End Summary. ¶2. (U) In a May 11 interview with Poloff, Isaac Humala, the 74-year old patriarch of the Humala Clan described himself as a life-long revolutionary. A former member of the Communist Party, he was expelled from the group in 1956 for advocating the party's restructuring. It was at that time, Humala said, that he developed his idea of race, rather than class, being the key to understanding history. He then incorporated this race-based idea into his evolving philosophy of Ethnocacerism. (For details on the movement's ideology, see Ref D.) ¶3. (SBU) Humala's ideas would seem merely curious if they hadn't proven an effective launching pad for himself and his sons. One son, Ollanta Humala, came within six percentage points of winning Peru's Presidency in 2006. Another son, Antauro Humala, led an attempted violent rebellion in the Andean region of Apurimac in 2005 that grabbed national headlines and kindled fears of another nascent radical group destabilizing Peru. (Refs B-C). Antauro is now in prison, but remains active, writing books and articles for his newspaper. Many observers believe that Antauro is actually more dangerous than his brother Ollanta. Some of Antauro Humala's followers, called Ethnocaceristas, told Poloff recently that Antauro planned to run for President in 2011. ¶4. (U) The elder Humala said his family offers different variants on his basic philosophy. These range from the "soft form" of the ideology espoused by former presidential candidate, Ollanta -- in which formal democratic processes are used to affect the desired change -- to the "pure" form espoused by Antauro. (He did not elucidate what was meant with this latter adjective, but past events suggest it might be interpreted as a kind of Peruvian "any means necessary.") The apparently genuine differences between the visions of the Humala brothers have served the family's political ambitions well, in effect providing a menu of Humala options for Peru's frustrated and dissatisfied. While Ollanta Humala succeeded in swaying some moderates to his cause in last year's elections, Antauro remains admired by the Ethnocaceristas' hard ideological core for his unrelenting discipline and focus, even in prison. ¶5. (SBU) The Humalas remain politically active, even as they have conducted most of their recent activities under the public radar. Antauro recently published a book on "ethno-geopolitics," the study of competition between the worlds' major races, which his father has presented at various fora in Lima. Antauro's newspaper (or political pamphlet) appears intermittently in rural areas like Ayacucho. The Ethnocaceristas reportedly run about 40 schools around the country in which they indoctrinate followers, mostly lower class and mestizo Peruvians, indigenous army veterans, in their philosophy of racial revolution. During a May 13-15 trip to rural Apurimac, the APRA Mayor of Huancarama told Poloff that Antauro's followers were actively organizing in the small villages around his town (septel). Isaac Humala also mentioned his recent trip to Caracas, suggesting the group's larger regional connections. (He did not specify when he traveled to the Venezuelan capital.) -------------- Humala Sees Things Moving His Way -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Humala (pere) asserted that the time of armed revolts in Latin America had passed, and been replaced by "revolts of the masses." He described this phenomenon with reference to recent democratic elections in Venezuela and Bolivia, in which Hugo Chavez and Evo Morales had overwhelmed opposition candidates in votes that featured massive lower class participation and took place under the shadow of potential social unrest. He described Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and Bolivian President Evo Morales as leaders who represented "unconscious manifestations" of his idea of racial revolution in Latin America. Humala stated that for something similar to happen in Peru, radical groups like his had to work to weaken and to undermine the Garcia government. A weak, beleagured and ineffective government would pave the way for the emergence of a Chavez/Morales-style anti-systemic candidate to win Peru's 2011 presidential elections. ¶7. (SBU) Isaac Humala alleged that, to prevent the otherwise inevitable election of a radical candidate, President Garcia, Peru's elites and the United States would rig the 2011 presidential election in their favor. He claimed that this had already been done in 2006, when the conspiring elites had engineered Garcia's (as he saw it) illegitimate victory over Lourdes Flores in the first round of voting. Humala was certain that, had Lourdes Flores faced Ollanta Humala rather than Garcia in the second round, his son Ollanta would have won the presidency, and cited Lourdes Flores' own accusations of electoral fraud as proof of this imagined plot. -------------- -------------- Comment: Peru Still Vulnerable to Radical Ideologies -------------- -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The elder Humala's ideas may seem eccentric to outsiders, but they appear to resonate in the rural, highlands areas of Peru, where government presence is nearly nil, and among the country's diminishing but still significant population of dispossesed. Under the right circumstances, this highly volatile population may be easily convinced and readily mobilized. While recent reports that Ollanta Humala had masterminded recent cocalero, mining and agricultural protests seemed to us unrealistic and overblown, the larger Humala group has successfully tapped into preexisting demonstrations of discontent and, in some cases, claimed a measure of credit for them. Recent press reports indicated that Ethnocaceristas had inserted themselves into the ongoing protest over ownership of Lima's Santa Anita market (Ref A). Should the Garcia government fail to deliver on its promises to improve the lives of poor Peruvians, Humala and his scions will be ready to harvest the growing discontent. STRUBLE