MALAWI'S POLITICAL IMPASSE CONTINUES

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LILONGWE 000644 SIPDIS SIPDIS SENSITIVE STATE FOR AF/S STATE FOR INR/AA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM EFIN EAID MI SUBJECT: MALAWI'S POLITICAL IMPASSE CONTINUES REF: A) LILONGWE 526, B) LILONGWE 512, C) LILONGWE 468 LILONGWE 00000644 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Malawi's political impasse continues amidst a flurry of legal actions by both the ruling and opposition parties, and bickering in the National Assembly. Popular opinion seems to have convinced opposition leaders to agree at least to substantive discussion on the budget as of August 15, but the GOM continues to press for a full annual budget. President Mutharika raised the stakes on August 14, by declaring that if Parliament did not pass the budget in two days, he would "close it." In the meantime, local clergy leaders with technical support from donors attempted to mediate a broader agreement on governance between the opposition and the government, but their efforts ultimately failed when President Mutharika reportedly rejected the package negotiated by his staff on Aug. 10. Some political leaders and commentators have now called for external mediators, perhaps to include African leaders, to bridge the serious gap in trust between the government and the opposition. Donor Heads of Mission agreed Aug. 15 to approach President Mutharika during the week of Aug. 20 to underscore the importance of respect for the rule of law and urge reconsideration of the locally-mediated compromise. End Summary -------------- Playing Rough -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Malawi's political impasse continued when an opposition-obtained late-night injunction that blocked the August 6 meeting of the National Assembly. A week-long battle in both the Malawi High Court and the Supreme Court of Appeal ensued. Ultimately the courts authorized the National Assembly to meet again on August 13. The court battle led to numerous accusations of bad faith from both sides. Opposition leaders claimed that the GOM sponsored a University of Malawi student rally after the announcement of the injunction in which the students barricaded Members of Parliament (MPs) inside the National Assembly for five hours and then threw stones at opposition members' vehicles as they attempted to exit. In addition, opposition leaders claimed (with justification) that the government was using state-owned media outlets Malawi Broadcasting Corporation (MBC) and Television Malawi (TVM) to present only the government side of the debate. (MBC is the �00A;only national radio station and the only source of information for much of the rural population.) Meanwhile, government Anti-Corruption Bureau (ACB) agents went (with a warrant) to the home of Justice Joseph Manyungwa, the grantor of the opposition injunction, to search for money he might have been paid but found nothing incriminating. -------------- President Rejects Local Mediation Effort -------------- ¶3. (SBU) During the week-long halt of the National Assembly, three local clergy leaders led a mediation effort to end the impasse. The efforts, which included participation by senior Presidential advisors, yielded a Memorandum of Agreement (MOA) on August 11. In the MOA, the opposition agreed not to pursue impeachment of the President; to remove the injunction preventing the President from swearing in new National Electoral Commissioners as long as the opposition was given representation on the commission; and to end delay on debating and passing the budget. In turn, the government agreed to implement in the current sitting of Parliament Section 65 of the Constitution, which may require the replacement of MPs who have changed parties after being elected, and to include opposition representation on the National Electoral Commission. At the last minute, however, President Mutharika ordered government representatives not to sign the MOA. In a separate meeting with donor Chiefs of Mission, the President had criticized the composition and mandate of the mediators. In light of the continued impasse, many political leaders and local commentators have called for external mediators to be used to bridge the gap. Among names mentioned in local media as possible mediators were former president of Mozambique Joachim Chissano and former president of Botswana Ketumile Masire. -------------- Send Parliament Packing? -------------- ¶4. (SBU) On August 13, the National Assembly reconvened with only one motion, to open debate on the budget. With the Speaker barred by an injunction from enacting Section 65 of the Constitution to remove the MPs who have switched parties, the opposition stalled the budget debate by insisting that the National Assembly first normalize emergency government spending since August 1 through a formal resolution. Heated debate from both sides failed to move the LILONGWE 00000644 002.2 OF 002 issue forward and continued to show little signs of a compromise. It appeared, however, that popular opinion had convinced the opposition that completely blocking government operations and spending is not a viable option. ¶5. (SBU) On August 14, President Mutharika threatened to close the National Assembly within two days if the body did not open debate on the budget. Even before this announcement, however, the Speaker had already clearly signaled his intent to do so. Despite this, opposition leaders refused to speak to the budget without a financial resolution to regularize the current emergency spending and had not yet agreed to consider a full-year budget. As this message goes to press, the opposition on August 15 relented, with the finance spokesmen of the MCP, UPF, and PPM parties offering their first substantive comments on the government's proposed spending bill for the current fiscal year. We do not yet know whether this reflects a tactical decision on their part or a substantive concession to the President on passage of the budget. -------------- Concerned Donors Plan Approach to GOM -------------- ¶6. (SBU) At a regular meeting of donor country Heads of Mission (HOMs),there was general agreement that the failure of local mediation was a lost opportunity for the GOM, and that the deepening political crisis might jeopardize the rule of law. Heads of Mission decided that representatives from the U.K., U.S. and UNDP should seek a meeting with President Mutharika the week of Aug. 20 to underscore the importance of respect for the Constitution, and to encourage flexibility and support for a locally-mediated compromise with opposition. HOMs also noted that Parliament's failure to agree on a budget would likely have serious implications for budget support assistance - another point for the President to consider. ¶7. (SBU) Comment: The impasse continues to be more about mistrust between MCP leader John Tembo, UDF leader and former president Bakili Muluzi and current president Bingu wa Mutharika stemming from the 2004 elections and subsequent events than about any substantive disagreement about the budget. Both government and the opposition continue to use the court system in an effort to block or enforce actions, refusing to trust in purely political agreements. While the opposition remains united in its current battle with the government, the union of the Malawian Congress Party (MCP) and the United Democratic Front (UDF) remains a marriage of convenience. Furthermore, MCP and UDF leadership are likely insisting on implementation of Section 65 in this sitting not to impeach the president, as Mutharika fears, but rather as a disciplinary measure, to ensure that more MPs from their parties do not seek to jump to the ruling DPP in the future. EASTHAM