MALAWI'S POLITICAL IMPASSE CONTINUES

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LILONGWE 000644

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

STATE FOR AF/S
STATE FOR INR/AA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM EFIN EAID MI
SUBJECT: MALAWI'S POLITICAL IMPASSE CONTINUES

REF: A) LILONGWE 526, B) LILONGWE 512, C) LILONGWE 468

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1. (SBU) Summary: Malawi's political impasse continues amidst a
flurry of legal actions by both the ruling and opposition parties,
and bickering in the National Assembly. Popular opinion seems to
have convinced opposition leaders to agree at least to substantive
discussion on the budget as of August 15, but the GOM continues to
press for a full annual budget. President Mutharika raised the
stakes on August 14, by declaring that if Parliament did not pass
the budget in two days, he would "close it." In the meantime, local
clergy leaders with technical support from donors attempted to
mediate a broader agreement on governance between the opposition and
the government, but their efforts ultimately failed when President
Mutharika reportedly rejected the package negotiated by his staff on
Aug. 10. Some political leaders and commentators have now called for
external mediators, perhaps to include African leaders, to bridge
the serious gap in trust between the government and the opposition.
Donor Heads of Mission agreed Aug. 15 to approach President
Mutharika during the week of Aug. 20 to underscore the importance of
respect for the rule of law and urge reconsideration of the
locally-mediated compromise. End Summary

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Playing Rough
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2. (SBU) Malawi's political impasse continued when an
opposition-obtained late-night injunction that blocked the August 6
meeting of the National Assembly. A week-long battle in both the
Malawi High Court and the Supreme Court of Appeal ensued.
Ultimately the courts authorized the National Assembly to meet again
on August 13. The court battle led to numerous accusations of bad
faith from both sides. Opposition leaders claimed that the GOM
sponsored a University of Malawi student rally after the
announcement of the injunction in which the students barricaded
Members of Parliament (MPs) inside the National Assembly for five
hours and then threw stones at opposition members' vehicles as they
attempted to exit. In addition, opposition leaders claimed (with
justification) that the government was using state-owned media
outlets Malawi Broadcasting Corporation (MBC) and Television Malawi
(TVM) to present only the government side of the debate. (MBC is the
only national radio station and the only source of information for
much of the rural population.) Meanwhile, government Anti-Corruption
Bureau (ACB) agents went (with a warrant) to the home of Justice
Joseph Manyungwa, the grantor of the opposition injunction, to
search for money he might have been paid but found nothing
incriminating.

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President Rejects Local Mediation Effort
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3. (SBU) During the week-long halt of the National Assembly, three
local clergy leaders led a mediation effort to end the impasse. The
efforts, which included participation by senior Presidential
advisors, yielded a Memorandum of Agreement (MOA) on August 11. In
the MOA, the opposition agreed not to pursue impeachment of the
President; to remove the injunction preventing the President from
swearing in new National Electoral Commissioners as long as the
opposition was given representation on the commission; and to end
delay on debating and passing the budget. In turn, the government
agreed to implement in the current sitting of Parliament Section 65
of the Constitution, which may require the replacement of MPs who
have changed parties after being elected, and to include opposition
representation on the National Electoral Commission. At the last
minute, however, President Mutharika ordered government
representatives not to sign the MOA. In a separate meeting with
donor Chiefs of Mission, the President had criticized the
composition and mandate of the mediators. In light of the continued
impasse, many political leaders and local commentators have called
for external mediators to be used to bridge the gap. Among names
mentioned in local media as possible mediators were former president
of Mozambique Joachim Chissano and former president of Botswana
Ketumile Masire.

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Send Parliament Packing?
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4. (SBU) On August 13, the National Assembly reconvened with only
one motion, to open debate on the budget. With the Speaker barred
by an injunction from enacting Section 65 of the Constitution to
remove the MPs who have switched parties, the opposition stalled the
budget debate by insisting that the National Assembly first
normalize emergency government spending since August 1 through a
formal resolution. Heated debate from both sides failed to move the

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issue forward and continued to show little signs of a compromise.
It appeared, however, that popular opinion had convinced the
opposition that completely blocking government operations and
spending is not a viable option.


5. (SBU) On August 14, President Mutharika threatened to close the
National Assembly within two days if the body did not open debate on
the budget. Even before this announcement, however, the Speaker had
already clearly signaled his intent to do so. Despite this,
opposition leaders refused to speak to the budget without a
financial resolution to regularize the current emergency spending
and had not yet agreed to consider a full-year budget. As this
message goes to press, the opposition on August 15 relented, with
the finance spokesmen of the MCP, UPF, and PPM parties offering
their first substantive comments on the government's proposed
spending bill for the current fiscal year. We do not yet know
whether this reflects a tactical decision on their part or a
substantive concession to the President on passage of the budget.

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Concerned Donors Plan Approach to GOM
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6. (SBU) At a regular meeting of donor country Heads of Mission
(HOMs),there was general agreement that the failure of local
mediation was a lost opportunity for the GOM, and that the deepening
political crisis might jeopardize the rule of law. Heads of Mission
decided that representatives from the U.K., U.S. and UNDP should
seek a meeting with President Mutharika the week of Aug. 20 to
underscore the importance of respect for the Constitution, and to
encourage flexibility and support for a locally-mediated compromise
with opposition. HOMs also noted that Parliament's failure to agree
on a budget would likely have serious implications for budget
support assistance - another point for the President to consider.



7. (SBU) Comment: The impasse continues to be more about mistrust
between MCP leader John Tembo, UDF leader and former president
Bakili Muluzi and current president Bingu wa Mutharika stemming from
the 2004 elections and subsequent events than about any substantive
disagreement about the budget. Both government and the opposition
continue to use the court system in an effort to block or enforce
actions, refusing to trust in purely political agreements. While
the opposition remains united in its current battle with the
government, the union of the Malawian Congress Party (MCP) and the
United Democratic Front (UDF) remains a marriage of convenience.
Furthermore, MCP and UDF leadership are likely insisting on
implementation of Section 65 in this sitting not to impeach the
president, as Mutharika fears, but rather as a disciplinary measure,
to ensure that more MPs from their parties do not seek to jump to
the ruling DPP in the future.

EASTHAM