MALAWI AND IMF POSTPONE PRGF REVIEW OVER BUDGETARY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 LILONGWE 000126 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/S- DAN MOZENA, LOIS CECSARINI, KAMANA MATHUR STATE FOR EB/IFD/ODF TREASURY FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS/AFRICA - BEN CUSHMAN STATE PLEASE PASS TO MCC - KEVIN SABA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EFIN EINV EAGR EAID PGOV ECON MI SUBJECT: MALAWI AND IMF POSTPONE PRGF REVIEW OVER BUDGETARY ISSUES REF: LILONGWE 85 LILONGWE 00000126 001.2 OF 003 ¶1. (SBU) Summary. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Resident Representative in Malawi, Thomas Baunsgaard, notified post on February 15 that the IMF and the Government of Malawi (GOM) had agreed to a "short" postponement of the IMF Board's third review of the Malawi Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) program (and a USD 7 million disbursement under the PRGF) due to a discrepancy in budgetary figures. Although this is expected to be only a short delay and should not have an impact on the economy, Malawi's budget overrun of USD 54 million is a clear signal that its budget process needs strengthening. The IMF review had been scheduled for February 16. End Summary. -------------- -------------- USD 54 Million Budget Overrun to Cover Inflated Fertilizer Subsidy Program and "Problem Ministries" -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) According to Baunsgaard, when the Malawians presented their plans for the supplemental budget to be introduced in Parliament next week, it deviated from what had been agreed earlier with the IMF in terms of budget targets. The first problem was "sloppy" numbers in the documentation, but more significantly it proposed a larger- than-expected amount of funding for the just-concluded fertilizer subsidy as well as a new government program to purchase maize. There were also substantial amounts in the supplemental budget for defense, the police, and certain other "problem ministries" which typically underestimate their utility and rental expenditures and need to be bailed out lest they fall in arrears. The total budget overrun amounts to MK 7.5 billion (USD 54 million),some MK 2.5 billion (USD 18 million) of which the IMF estimates is attributable to cost overruns from the fertilizer subsidy program. Baunsgaard said the IMF had been consulting with the Finance Minister, who is in Taiwan, and who has agreed to bring the numbers back to what was earlier agreed. -------------- -------------- Economy Buoyant, but GOM Needs to Improve Budget Process -------------- -------------- ; ¶3. (SBU) Baunsgaard believed that the negative budget impact would be offset by strong revenue collections and increased budgetary support from the donor community (note: some donors are apparently prepared to move forward their contributions in response to the budget overrun),hence the end June targets were achievable. Economic performance had been good and he felt confident that they still had a "good basis to go to the board" to discuss performance under the PRGF. Nevertheless, significant cost overruns for the second consecutive year both in the fertilizer subsidy program and the "problem ministries" were serious cause for concern moving forward. Baunsgaard was particularly concerned that the Ministry of Finance had taken a "hands off" approach this year and had not monitored government financial activities. It was good, Baunsgaard noted, that the GOM was "facing up to it now," but fundamental changes were needed in this area to avoid overruns of this magnitude in the future. ¶4. (SBU) Treasury Secretary Randson Mwadiwa cojfirmed to Econoff that the ministry was in the process of revising the draft supplementary budget, which it planned to present to Parliament on February 19. According to Mwadiwa, after obtaining debt relief under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative, the GOM had agreed with the IMF to budget a total sum of MK 1.6 billion (USD 11.4 million),available as a result of Malawi's significantly reduced debt service payments, to finance new projects in priority areas. However, the GOM later decided (without consulting the IMF) to budget an additional MK 700 million (USD 5 million) to fund various education and infrastructure projects (note: Mwadiwa did not mention any allocations related to the agricultural sector). Mwadiwa claimed that the GOM felt pressured by the public to share LILONGWE 00000126 002.2 OF 003 dividends in response to "increased expectations of the public" post HIPC in order to demonstrate that the country was making progress economically. However, after learning of the IMF's concerns, the GOM had agreed to reduce the draft budget to the original figure of MK 1.6 billion (11.4 million) by either scaling back or postponing proposed public works projects. Mwadiwa inferred that the IMF did not trust the GOM to stick with the lower figure since the IMF is waiting to conduct its review until after the budget is actually presented to Parliament (Comment: Baunsgaard confirmed that the IMF did feel there was some risk that the commitments might not be good given that Finance Minister Goodall Gondwe was abroad, hence the decision to hold off on the board meeting until sometime after February ¶19. End comment.) -------------- New GOM Plan to Manage Maize Surplus? -------------- ¶5. (SBU) According to Baunsgaard, 4he GOM had had included a line item to purchase maize for its Strategic Grain Reserve (SGR),but the IMF had reminded the government that this was not part of the original agreement, and pointed out that it was not feasible to buy maize at this time since there were no surplus funds available and no clear reason for doing do. Consequently, the GOM agreed to postpone the issue until the regular budgetary session later in the year. With regard to the fertilizer subsidy program, Baunsgaard noted that the IMF was aware that there were cost overruns, but that the estimates stated in the budget were "far higher than the actual expenditure incurred," hence the figure needed to be revised. ¶6. (U) According to current sales figures, the IMF estimates that the GOM has distributed more than 175,000 tons of fertilizer this year (compared to 105,000 tons last year). The GOM had originally planned to distribute 150,000 tons of fertilizer at a cost of MK 7 billion (USD 50 million),but continued to print and distribute coupons far beyond the initial target. Broad distribution of fertilizer through this very costly -- but generally effective -- program, combined with good rains and increased planting of improved seed has resulted in a promising crop (reftel). Unofficial first round crop estimates provided by the GOM on February 9 project total maize production of 3.1 million metric tons (MT),which would far exceed the national food requirement. ¶7. (U) With excess maize stock remaining from last year's bumper crop of 2.6 million MT, maize prices have dropped fifty percent during the pre-harvest period. This is in stark contrast to the usual pre-harvest period -- commonly referred to as the "hungry season" -- when maize is typically scarce, driving prices up. Maize exports are currently banned and there is increasing pressure from grain traders to lift export restrictions. Baunsgaard pointed out that this is clearly an area that needs to be addressed, and agreed that exports should be through the private sector, not via government purchases and exports. However, he stated it is not the place of the IMF to offer policy advice; this guidance must come from those donors who are engaged in food security issues and have expertise in the agricultural sector. ¶8. (U) It is not clear what purpose uhe proposed maize purchases would serve, but Baunsgaard speculated that it was part of a developing government strategy to manage the surplus, perhaps through "managed" exports. Earlier this month, the media reported that Secretary of Agriculture Patrick Kabambe had assured concerned farmers that the government would ensure that they could sell their crops to ADMARC at "better prices" than they are currently receiving. Last year, the GOM instructed its grain trading agency, the Agricultural Development and MarketiNg Corporation (ADMARC),to purchase surplus maize in anticipation that ADMARC would recoup the money through grain sales. But with selling prices twice that of privately-traded maize, ADMARC has been unable to unload LILONGWE 00000126 003.2 OF 003 the 85,000 tons it already holds and there is growing concern that the GOM will have to cover its sizeable loans. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Although the IMF's decision to delay the PRGF review is not expected to have a negative impact on the board's decision, it does send a signal that Malawi's budget process needs to be strengthened and made credible. A centralized budget system is needed to ensure realistic budget projections, and the Finance Ministry must monitor the budget closely to prevent cost overruns and diversion of funds. The IMF is clearly concerned about the impact of the fertilizer subsidy program and the lack of financial monitoring that resulted in substantial cost overruns for the second consecutive year. Excess maize supply, which could possibly result in a price crash, is also very worrisome. ¶10. (SBU) The GOM remains extremely cautious in its handling of maize following devastating food shortages in 2002 that were exacerbated by export of strategic grain reserve stocks in 2001. In its determination to guarantee sufficiency, the GOM is constraining the entire maize sector, causing serious price distortions that risk future food shortages as farmers shift production. The challenge for Malawi will be to strike a balance between continued liberalization of its maize market and establishment of an appropriate level of strategic planning to address periodic shortages. Though it has apparently decided to drop the issue of a maize purchase program for the moment, President Mutharika has stated that the government would not be pressured to sell ADMARC, which will not only distribute maize, according to his vision, but "will ensure people in rural areas have somewhere to sell their farm produce." Next year's budget will undoubtedly propose significant fertilizer distribution and maize purchases once again. End Comment. EASTHAM