CHANGE IN MORALES' RE-ELECTION STRATEGY

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 000795 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/22/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON BL SUBJECT: CHANGE IN MORALES' RE-ELECTION STRATEGY Classified By: Ecopol Counselor Andrew Erickson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (SBU) President Morales' Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party is now openly signaling that a changed constitution will restart the electoral clock from zero, opening the door to a new Morales mandate in 2008. MAS leaders say that following approval of Bolivia's new constitution, the yet-to-be-scheduled 2008 elections will begin a "new cycle" for the state and allow it to "start from zero," making Morales' next term his true "first" in office. GOB representatives, who all assume that Morales will run for president in 2008, argue that this will not constitute re-election but "realignment of the state with the new constitution," as the Constituent Assembly (CA) will "change the rules of the game." National Unity (UN) party leader Samuel Doria Medina responded by calling the MAS' understanding of the post-new constitutional situation "incoherent." He added that there is no disputing that Morales is currently president and that it is "absurd to think that because the constitution is changed, anything that was done up to this point does not count." ¶2. (C) Comment: Opposition party members believe a key Morales goal is to amend the constitution to permit his re-election. Under the current version, if Morales calls elections before the completion of his full five-year term, he can only legally run for president after a constitutional period elapses, meaning that he would have to wait for another president to complete a full term before he could be re-elected. UN deputy Peter Maldonado told poloff March 21 that he thinks Morales will gauge his popularity before formally calling new elections, and that if his popularity drops, he may put off re-election plans for a more opportune moment. Given the January violence in Cochabamba, corruption scandals involving MAS officials, and the GOB's politicization of disaster assistance, Maldonado believes Morales has been forced to expend much of his political capital (Note: We disagree with Maldonado, at least for the short-to-medium term. Currently the president's approval ratings remain at 65 percent, although given his current bad news cycle this level may drop slightly in upcoming polling. End note.) Maldonado believes that, in the most optimistic of scenarios, elections could not be held before late 2008. In the final analysis, the MAS has now made clear that its long-term strategy of remaining in power includes at its core the principle of a lengthy stay for President Morales in the presidential palace. End comment. GOLDBERG