CLIMATE CHANGE: BOLIVIA AT RISK

UNCLAS LA PAZ 000661 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/AND LPETRONI BRASILIA FOR JSTORY SAN JOSE FOR BLINK USAID/LAC FOR JBISSON USAID/EGAT FOR DMULLER AND CELRON USAID/BOGOTA FOR BBAYLE COMMERCE FOR JANGLIN E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON PGOV BL SUBJECT: CLIMATE CHANGE: BOLIVIA AT RISK REF: A. LA PAZ 621 ¶B. 06 LA PAZ 2674 -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (U) Flooding in the eastern Bolivian department of the Beni (ref A) has prompted a media debate about the link between this latest catastrophe and climate change; it has also generated discussion of the long-term consequences of the latter. While current water levels are only five centimeters higher than those of 1992, when Bolivia last faced massive floods, this year's disaster is arguably more serious than events of the past. That said, much of the flooding may be more closely linked to population growth and related deforestation than to climate change. ¶2. (U) As reported in ref B, accelerating glacier melt provides abundant evidence of climate change, and studies suggest that a future of ever harsher and more frequent natural disasters is a distinct possibility, with severe droughts and floods increasingly common features of everyday life. Even in relatively conservative scenarios, climate change poses a significant threat to Bolivia's long-term economic development; as such, it deserves the attention not only of the Bolivian government and population, but also of the international community. End summary. -------------- CLIMATE CHANGE: BOLIVIA AT RISK -------------- ¶3. (U) In worst case scenarios, climate change will affect every department and family in Bolivia. Increasingly serious natural disasters will hit ever widening areas, and tens of thousands will lose their livelihoods. Water and energy will become scarce, and vulnerable populations will struggle to cope with an ever changing and increasingly unpredictable environment, confronted with catastrophes they cannot control. ¶4. (U) Evidence suggests that a future of this sort is a distinct possibility. A January 2007 Danish International Development Agency study cited "compelling" indications of climate change, as seen in escalating annual average temperatures and variations in precipitation levels; it noted that changes in weather patterns could exacerbate aridity in the mountainous regions of Bolivia's west and cause more frequent and severe floods in the lowland areas of the east. The study predicted damage to croplands and traditional agricultural practices and noted that more frequent natural disasters could cause ever greater harm to productive infrastructure and human livelihoods. ¶5. (U) The study also called attention to expansions in the incidence areas of vector-borne diseases like malaria and dengue fever, with resulting implications for human health, and noted that glacier melt (ref B) and reductions in water reservoirs could accelerate over the next ten to twenty years, with negative consequences for water and hydroelectric energy systems. Declines in these resources, the report noted, could affect everything from natural ecosystems and agriculture to populations' access to water and energy. Indeed, the study identified "a real risk" that La Paz, Cochabamba, and other cities could face significant water and energy shortages over the next two decades, which could threaten the productive activities of nearly a third of Bolivia's population. ¶6. (U) According to the study's author, Javier Gonzales, who spoke to Econoff February 27, Bolivia's geographic and climatic conditions create a unique mosaic of climate-related risk. Historically, the biggest natural disasters have been droughts in the west and floods in the east; Gonzales predicted that these would worsen, in time affecting ever larger areas and swelling numbers of families. Future floods, he said, could be even more severe than those currently affecting large parts of the eastern departments of the Beni and Santa Cruz (ref A),which to date have claimed more than 40 lives, destroyed almost 500,000 acres of crops, killed an estimated 30,000 cattle, and cost Bolivia approximately one percent of its gross domestic product. ¶7. (U) Gonzales noted that as South America's average temperature rises -- Global Circulation Models show an increase of 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius by 2010 -- weather patterns will become increasingly unpredictable. Precipitation could jump by as much as nine percent during the rainy season (December to February) while falling by an estimated three to nine percent in the first two to three months of the period; the trends could affect ecosystem productivity and negatively impact agricultural output in both the eastern and western parts of the country. At the same time, more frequent occurrences of hail, frost, and landslides could also negatively affect populations and production. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (U) Even in relatively conservative scenarios, climate change poses a significant threat to Bolivia's long-term economic development; its consequences could easily create additional stress for a population frustrated by the slow pace of growth and subject to high levels of insecurity. Climate change and its potential impact deserve the attention not only of the Bolivian government and population, but also of the international community; the consequences of a failure to act, in Gonzales' words, are something he "prefers not to think about." End comment. GOLDBERG