CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY: TIME IS NOT ON ITS SIDE

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 000523

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/27/2017
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY: TIME IS NOT ON ITS SIDE

REF: LA PAZ 444

Classified By: Ecopol Counselor Andrew Erickson for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Summary: Opposition Constituent Assembly (CA) member
Carlos Goitia told POLOFF February 23 that although the CA is
not likely to complete its work within its one year mandate,
he thinks President Morales' Movement Toward Socialism (MAS)
party will oppose an extension. Press reports from February
24-25 highlighted a GOB CA proposal to replace the
Constitutional Tribunal with a "superpower," with popularly
elected judges who would control all constitutional matters.
Press reports also cite a GOB proposal to withdraw
recognition of Catholicism as Bolivia's official religion,
relegating religious organizations to the same status as
NGOs; this proposal seems to have strong support from
Protestant groups. On autonomy and geopolitical
organization, the GOB seems to want to halt the process
toward increased departmental autonomy. With respect to
Bolivia's territorial divisions, there are many different
proposals in play, including proposals for new sub-level
governments (called Indigenous- Originary Territorial
Entities, somewhat analogous to U.S. Indian Reservations),a
tenth department in Bolivia's Chaco, an eleventh department
carved out of northern La Paz, or 38 departments to
correspond to Bolivia's officially recognized indigenous
communities. Meanwhile, rumors persist of GOB plans to
eliminate presidential term limits, nationalize all natural
resources, and eliminate departmental and municipal
governments. The bottom line is that the GOB is continuing
to explore the limits of the public's appetite for the more
radical elements of the MAS agenda, while pulling back when
resistance seems insurmountable. End summary.

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LOST TIME
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2. (C) Podemos Constituent Assembly (CA) delegate and former
Minister of Justice (2001-2002) Carlos Goitia told POLOFF
February 23 that although the CA is not likely to complete
its work within its one year mandate, he thinks President
Morales' Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party will oppose an
extension. Under the schedule announced last week, all
commissions will present their reports to the plenary April
1-30, voting will take place May 1-June 15, the "consensus"
commission will resolve disputes on controversial articles
June 16-July 2, and voting on the final text will occur July
3-25, with the delivery of the new constitution by August 6.
Goitia said this timeline favors the MAS, which he says is
confident about getting its draft articles approved by
popular referendum if the CA fails to reach consensus. For
that reason, Goitia said, the MAS does not seem inclined to
extend the CA's one year term. Goitia believed that the MAS
has four different constitutional proposals, ranging from
selected changes to a complete revision, and that it will
choose whatever option time permits. Goitia said social
sectors were supposed to have traveled to Sucre to give the
CA their views on constitutional changes in February, but had
not yet started this process. With that in mind, he said the
CA would likely continue to operate behind schedule, as the
commissions would have to hold these "hearings" and prepare
their reports in March. (Note: Given that CA representatives
spend one week per month in their home regions, the CA would
have approximately 15 business days in session in March).

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JUDICIAL AND RELIGIOUS REFORM
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3. (SBU) Press articles from February 24-25 highlighted a GOB
CA proposal to replace the Constitutional Tribunal (CT) with
a "superpower" that would control all constitutional matters.
Under the proposal, the court's judges would be popularly
elected and could also be removed by referendum, as
foreshadowed by the CT in mid-February (reftel). The
proposal emphasizes an "extended and effective social control
of the judicial power by social organizations." The
political opposition has said the proposal, if implemented,
would politicize the judicial system and create instability,
opening the door to a "totalitarian state."


4. (SBU) The press also reported that under the GOB's CA
proposal, the state would not recognize any religion. (Note:
The current constitution recognizes Catholicism as the
official religion). Moreover, the proposal provides that
religious organizations would be relegated to the same
standing as NGOs and would not have tax exemptions. There is
some support for this move among Bolivia's rapidly growing
Protestant religious movements, well-represented among the
indigenous, who are frustrated with Catholicism's religious
monopoly.

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AUTONOMY/ORGANIZATION OF THE STATE
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5. (SBU) Another GOB proposal for the new constitution
indicates that the government may want to be able to halt the
process toward increased departmental autonomy if the
national interest so requires. Instead of using the word
"autonomy," the GOB proposes suggests using the term
"decentralization" in the new constitution. The idea seems to
be to fragment the power of autonomous departments by
creating sub-autonomous units on ethnic grounds that would
likely be better disposed to the MAS project.


6. (SBU) On Bolivia's territorial divisions, there are many
different proposals in play. One GOB proposal would replace
Bolivia's prefects (governors) with new sub-level
governments, or Indigenous- Originary Territorial Entities
(ETIOs) analogous to U.S. Indian Reservations. (Note: To
constitute an ETIO, a region would have to have 10,000
inhabitants and one to twenty percent of the national
territory). As a member of the CA commission which is
examining Bolivia's territorial divisions, Goitia said the
movement for a tenth department (Bolivia's Chaco) has
substantial support; another for an eleventh department
carved out of northern La Paz department does not. Goitia
thought Vice President Alvaro Garcia Linera had consistently
supported reorganization around Bolivia's 38 officially
recognized indigenous communities. Goitia said Garcia Linera
wants to "Balkanize" Bolivia.

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COMMENT
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7. (C) Now that the CA is moving from procedural questions to
the actual challenge of drafting a new constitution, CA
members are confronting for the first time the practical work
of addressing the MAS vision. The suggested move away from
Catholicism as the state religion, for example, is in
deference to indigenous practices and the growth of
Protestantism and has been discussed widely in the context of
educational reform. (Note: We continue to advocate for
independence in setting the curriculum in private schools).
Meanwhile, rumors persist about additional GOB plans for the
new constitution, with speculation about lifting presidential
term limits, nationalizing all natural resources, and
eliminating departmental and municipal governments. The
reality is that President Morales and his inner circle will
continue to explore the limits of Bolivia's appetite for some
of the more radical elements of the MAS agenda. Experience
to date has shown the GOB ready to retreat at the signs of
fierce public opposition. Nonetheless, the GOB's temptation
to use the CA to permanently consolidate the MAS revolution
will be strong throughout the rest of this process. End
comment.
URS