FORMER PRESIDENT SEES DEMOCRACY AS MAJOR CHALLENGE

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 000357

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/08/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: FORMER PRESIDENT SEES DEMOCRACY AS MAJOR CHALLENGE
FACING BOLIVIA

REF: 06LA PAZ 3258

Classified By: Amb. Philip S. Goldberg for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


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SUMMARY
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1. (C) The Ambassador met February 6 with former president
Jaime Paz Zamora, his son, Congressman Rodrigo Paz Pereyra,
and Zamora's longtime advisor, Oscar Eid Franco. Paz Zamora
described Evo Morales' presidency as a "phase in Bolivian
democracy." While the former president said it is important
to prepare for what comes after Morales, he spent much of his
conversation with the Ambassador reviewing recent Bolivian
history. Although concerned about Morales' commitment to
democracy, Paz Zamora provided a balanced take on the current
situation, and was particularly pleased with the evolution of
Bolivian political parties. Nonetheless, Paz Zamora lamented
the opposition's failure to work together, despite the
erosion of middle class support for the GOB, and made it
clear that in his opinion, the next president of Bolivia
would come from the left, not the "extreme right," as he
characterized leading opposition party PODEMOS. End Summary.

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MORALES A PHASE IN BOLIVIAN HISTORY
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2. (C) The Ambassador met February 6 with former president
Jaime Paz Zamora, his son, Congressman Rodrigo Paz Pereyra,
and Paz Zamora's longtime advisor Oscar Eid Franco. Paz
Zamora started the conversation by saying that he was not
especially concerned about the Morales government, calling it
another "phase in Bolivian democracy, just like Sanchez de
Lozada was a phase." Reviewing recent Bolivian history, Paz
Zamora said he believes Morales has made many missteps and
argued that Morales has been behaving cautiously since the
December 2006 Santa Cruz general strike (Reftel). Paz Zamora
argued that it is important to prepare for what will come
after the Morales government but complained that "Bolivians
do not think about the long term, which causes the country to
go from extreme to extreme."

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OUR INSTITUTIONS HAVE IMPROVED BUT ARE THREATENED
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3. (C) A case in point, for Paz Zamora, was the
near-failure of the democratic opposition to unite in the
senate to propose a common candidate for the presidency of
the senate. Opposition personality conflicts, argued Paz
Zamora, brought the opposition within a hair's breadth of
ceding control of the senate to Morales' MAS party.
Nonetheless, (and somewhat contradictorily) Paz Zamora argued
that for the first time in Bolivia's history, political
parties are no longer "factions in search of an army" but
mature parties in the Western sense, representing distinct
ideological trends and political platforms. The biggest
challenge is that the opposition does not work together, as
"they are too busy looking out for their own interests and
fail to see the big picture of democracy."


4. (C) The ex-president told the Ambassador that it is
important to reinforce independent institutions such as the
court system, and suggested that Morale's association with
Chavez is hurting him with the middle class, whose support is
key for any government. Congressman Rodrigo Paz noted that
Chavez' self-identification with the state was fueling
Bolivians' fears that Morales might just want to stay on
forever. This was particularly troublesome for many voters
who had voted for Morales to give him a chance at government,
allow him to fail, and move on to a more moderate solution.

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BLOW YOUR OWN HORN
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5. (C) Paz Zamora congratulated the Ambassador on the
United States' prudent position in the face of Morales'
constant attacks and advised him to have thick skin, as
Morales "cannot afford to let the image of the United States
equal progress in Bolivia." Repeatedly returning the theme,
Paz Zamora suggested the USG needs to do a better job in
publicizing its aid work in the country. Freely admitting
that the GOB was singularly unhelpful in this regard, he
nonetheless argued that historically, U.S. self-promotion of
its good works has been inadequate in Bolivia, and has led to
the population at large profoundly underestimating the extent
of U.S. assistance.

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COMMENT
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6. (C) Leftist Paz Zamora, although aging and semi-retired
in Tarija, is an influential person in Bolivian politics and
a keen and committed observer of the Bolivian political
scene. His balanced take on current events was interesting,
given the views of many other opposition interlocutors.
Unlike other opposition members, he seems to be taking Evo
Morales' presidency in stride, even though he (with other
ex-presidents) is facing GOB judicial harassment. End
Comment.
GOLDBERG