HOLIDAY CALLS FOR REBELLIONS, WAR, AND DIALOGUE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LA PAZ 003329

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/26/2017
TAGS: ASEC BL PGOV PHUM PINR PREL
SUBJECT: HOLIDAY CALLS FOR REBELLIONS, WAR, AND DIALOGUE

Classified By: Acting EcoPol Chief Brian Quigley for reasons 1.4 (b) an
d (d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (U) Despite the four day Christmas break, the political
rhetoric in Bolivia was anything but a message of peace for
the holiday. President Morales predicted that a rebellion
similar to El Alto's 2003 violence would take place in Santa
Cruz, warned the opposition that the only way he will leave
the Presidential Palace is dead, and called on social
organizations to mobilize in "this war between the rich and
poor." In contrast, Vice President Garcia Linera reiterated
the government's willingness to start a dialogue with the
opposition and asked them to keep a "relaxed" attitude. The
presidents of the Central Workers Union of El Alto (COR) and
the El Alto Federation of Neighborhood Committees (Fejuve)
called for Evo to meet with opposition governors and
political parties, warning that Evo is risking his support in
El Alto. The weekend also saw molotov cocktail attacks at
the hotel President Morales usually uses in Santa Cruz, the
home of a MAS constituent assemblyman in Santa Cruz, and at
the Bolivian Workers Federation (COB) in La Paz. End Summary.

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NO "GOODWILL TOWARDS MEN"
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2. (U) While most contacts had hoped the four-day Christmas
holiday would be a break from the recent extreme political
tension Bolivia, Santa Claus ignored their wishes. President
Evo Morales continued his unrelenting political rhetoric
against the opposition and the United States. On December
22, during a rally of miners and campesinos in a small town
in Potosi, Evo predicted that Santa Cruz will be the scene of
conflict. "I am convinced", he told the crowd, "that the
next rebellion, like the one in El Alto (in 2003),is going
to be in Santa Cruz." Evo went on to say "some regions, like
Santa Cruz, need to be liberated." The president did claim,
however, "that the government was peacefully betting on
democracy."

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NOT LEAVING THE PALACE ALIVE
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3. (U) In the same speech Evo warned the opposition that:
"I want you to know, with sincerity and responsibility, that
while I am democratically appointed as the Constitutional
President, if they want to take me out of the Palace, they
will take me out dead." Morales once again denounced an
alleged plot of the neoliberal right against his government
and accused the opposition of being "the servant of American
imperialism."

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A WAR BETWEEN RICH AND POOR
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4. (U) President Morales called on the Young Communitarian
Workers in the Tropic of Cochabamba to mobilize to defend the
new proposed constitution. "This is a war between the rich
and poor", Evo said, "and there are two ways, either the poor
win or the rich win, I am certain the poor will win because
they are millions and millions. In the world context either
capitalism wins or socialism wins, I am sure that socialism
will win." Evo categorized the autonomous statutes in four
states as "anti-democratic."


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CALLS FOR DIALOGUE
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5. (SBU) Around the same time Evo was giving his rebellion
speech in Potosi, Vice President Garcia Linera gave a press
conference in La Paz in which he reiterated the government's
willingness to meet with the opposition. He demanded that
the opposition not put any conditions on a possible meeting
and asked that they have a "relaxed" attitude and not one of
confrontation. For the first time, two El Alto social
organizations have begun to call for Evo to have talks with
the opposition. Edgar Patana, president of the Central
Workers Union of El Alto (COR),Nazario Ramirez, president of
the El Alto Federation of Neighborhood Committees (Fejuve),
called for Evo to meet with opposition governors and
political parties, warning that Evo is risking his support in
El Alto if he does not bet on dialogue. (Note: Both Edgar
Patana and Nazario Ramirez have been jockeying for
ministerships in Evo's cabinet. End Note.)

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EVO WARNING OR PROVOKING?
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6. (C) Karen Balcazar, Director of International Relations
for the Santa Cruz state government, believes that the
president's rhetoric is aimed at provoking a clash. "This is
a type of psychological warfare the national government is
using against Santa Cruz." Balcazar says she feels Evo knows
his support is at an all-time low in the country and
therefore "heaps threats upon threats" against the
opposition. Balcazar scoffed at the vice president's call
for dialogue.

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"HOLIDAY" COCKTAILS
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7. (U) In what appears to have become a pattern as of late,
molotov cocktails where thrown at three separate targets over
the weekend. On December 22, a molotov cocktail was thrown
at the hotel Evo Morales uses when in Santa Cruz, the Casa
Blanca Hotel. On the same day another was thrown at Santa
Cruz MAS Constituent Assemblyman Carlos Romero's home. And
on December 24 the Bolivian Workers Federation (COB) office
in La Paz was hit. The three incidents resulted in property
damage but no injuries. Minister of Government Alredo Rada
denounced the "terrorist attacks" while the COB secretary
general accused the right, the Podemos political party, the
Embassy of the United States, and the opposition governors
and civic committees of wanting a civil war.

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COMMENT
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8. (C) The calls for a political truce over the holiday
have rung hollow. The president and vice president's
alternating threats and calls for dialogue seem to be a
tactical ploy to allow the GOB to claim to seek a peaceful
settlement while ratcheting up the pressure on the
opposition. As 2007 draws to a close there is one thing for
certain, 2008 will be a difficult year politically,
economically, and socially for Bolivia. End comment.
GOLDBERG