HOLIDAY CALLS FOR REBELLIONS, WAR, AND DIALOGUE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LA PAZ 003329 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/26/2017 TAGS: ASEC BL PGOV PHUM PINR PREL SUBJECT: HOLIDAY CALLS FOR REBELLIONS, WAR, AND DIALOGUE Classified By: Acting EcoPol Chief Brian Quigley for reasons 1.4 (b) an d (d). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (U) Despite the four day Christmas break, the POLITICAL rhetoric in Bolivia was anything but a message of peace for the holiday. President Morales predicted that a rebellion similar to El Alto's 2003 violence would take place in Santa Cruz, warned the opposition that the only way he will leave the Presidential Palace is dead, and called on social organizations to mobilize in "this war between the rich and poor." In contrast, Vice President Garcia Linera reiterated the government's willingness to start a dialogue with the opposition and asked them to keep a "relaxed" attitude. The presidents of the Central Workers Union of El Alto (COR) and the El Alto Federation of Neighborhood Committees (Fejuve) called for Evo to meet with opposition governors and political parties, warning that Evo is risking his support in El Alto. The weekend also saw molotov cocktail attacks at the hotel President Morales usually uses in Santa Cruz, the home of a MAS constituent assemblyman in Santa Cruz, and at the Bolivian Workers Federation (COB) in La Paz. End Summary. -------------- NO "GOODWILL TOWARDS MEN" -------------- ¶2. (U) While most contacts had hoped the four-day Christmas holiday would be a break from the recent extreme POLITICAL tension Bolivia, Santa Claus ignored their wishes. President Evo Morales continued his unrelenting POLITICAL rhetoric against the opposition and the United States. On December 22, during a rally of miners and campesinos in a small town in Potosi, Evo predicted that Santa Cruz will be the scene of conflict. "I am convinced", he told the crowd, "that the next rebellion, like the one in El Alto (in 2003),is going to be in Santa Cruz." Evo went on to say "some regions, like Santa Cruz, need to be liberated." The president did claim, however, "that the government was peacefully betting on democracy." -------------- NOT LEAVING THE PALACE ALIVE -------------- ¶3. (U) In the same speech Evo warned the opposition that: "I want you to know, with sincerity and responsibility, that while I am democratically appointed as the Constitutional President, if they want to take me out of the Palace, they will take me out dead." Morales once again denounced an alleged plot of the neoliberal right against his government and accused the opposition of being "the servant of American imperialism." -------------- A WAR BETWEEN RICH AND POOR -------------- ¶4. (U) President Morales called on the Young Communitarian Workers in the Tropic of Cochabamba to mobilize to defend the new proposed constitution. "This is a war between the rich and poor", Evo said, "and there are two ways, either the poor win or the rich win, I am certain the poor will win because they are millions and millions. In the world context either capitalism wins or socialism wins, I am sure that socialism will win." Evo categorized the autonomous statutes in four states as "anti-democratic." LA PAZ 00003329 002 OF 002 -------------- CALLS FOR DIALOGUE -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Around the same time Evo was giving his rebellion speech in Potosi, Vice President Garcia Linera gave a press conference in La Paz in which he reiterated the government's willingness to meet with the opposition. He demanded that the opposition not put any conditions on a possible meeting and asked that they have a "relaxed" attitude and not one of confrontation. For the first time, two El Alto social organizations have begun to call for Evo to have talks with the opposition. Edgar Patana, president of the Central Workers Union of El Alto (COR),Nazario Ramirez, president of the El Alto Federation of Neighborhood Committees (Fejuve), called for Evo to meet with opposition governors and political parties, warning that Evo is risking his support in El Alto if he does not bet on dialogue. (Note: Both Edgar Patana and Nazario Ramirez have been jockeying for ministerships in Evo's cabinet. End Note.) -------------- EVO WARNING OR PROVOKING? -------------- ¶6. (C) Karen Balcazar, Director of International RELATIONS for the Santa Cruz state government, believes that the president's rhetoric is aimed at provoking a clash. "This is a type of psychological warfare the national government is using against Santa Cruz." Balcazar says she feels Evo knows his support is at an all-time low in the country and therefore "heaps threats upon threats" against the opposition. Balcazar scoffed at the vice president's call for dialogue. -------------- "HOLIDAY" COCKTAILS -------------- ¶7. (U) In what appears to have become a pattern as of late, molotov cocktails where thrown at three separate targets over the weekend. On December 22, a molotov cocktail was thrown at the hotel Evo Morales uses when in Santa Cruz, the Casa Blanca Hotel. On the same day another was thrown at Santa Cruz MAS Constituent Assemblyman Carlos Romero's home. And on December 24 the Bolivian Workers Federation (COB) office in La Paz was hit. The three incidents resulted in property damage but no injuries. Minister of Government Alredo Rada denounced the "terrorist attacks" while the COB secretary general accused the right, the Podemos POLITICAL party, the Embassy of the United States, and the opposition governors and civic committees of wanting a civil war. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) The calls for a POLITICAL truce over the holiday have rung hollow. The president and vice president's alternating threats and calls for dialogue seem to be a tactical ploy to allow the GOB to claim to seek a peaceful settlement while ratcheting up the pressure on the opposition. As 2007 draws to a close there is one thing for certain, 2008 will be a difficult year politically, economically, and socially for Bolivia. End comment. GOLDBERG