BOLIVIA: CALM AFTER AUTONOMIES ANNOUNCED

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 003269 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/17/2017 TAGS: PHUM ASEC PGOV PREL BL SUBJECT: BOLIVIA: CALM AFTER AUTONOMIES ANNOUNCED Classified By: EcoPol Chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 b, d ¶1. (C) Summary: As expected, the four opposition departments of Pando, Beni, Santa Cruz and Tarija took the first steps toward autonomy December 15, and the ruling Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) government's response was restrained. The opposition's efforts to keep autonomy declarations peaceful and President Evo Morales' decision not to overreact has the media focusing on the visit of Presidents Bachelet and Lula. Minor scuffles were reported in rural areas of Santa Cruz department between MAS followers and Santa Cruz autonomists, but without major injuries. The prefects of the departments (states) declaring autonomy have emphasized that they are not declaring independence, and President Morales seems to be holding to his "Christmas truce." EU Ambassadors are seeking to broker a meeting between the Prefects and President Morales for later this week. However, the potential for arrests of opposition leaders, outbreaks of violence, or a state crackdown still exists. Even if all sides manage to control their more radical elements over the Christmas holidays, January may bring confrontation. End summary. ¶2. (C) Having voted on and published draft autonomy statutes, the four opposition-controlled departments are now collecting signatures to call for referenda on the documents. Eight percent of the registered voters in a department must sign a petition in order for a referendum to be called (an easily reached target); referenda are expected in the next three to four months. Autonomy is expected to receive a resounding yes vote in all four departments that have declared autonomy: Pando, Beni, Santa Cruz, and Tarija. These same departments voted for autonomy in July of 2006, and MAS rhetoric and actions have only strengthened autonomy-fervor since that time. Additionally, a group in Chuquisaca has begun collecting signatures for their own autonomy referendum, since MAS actions and the recent violence in Sucre have driven the department toward the opposition and autonomy. ¶3. (C) Among other issues, the draft autonomy statutes would provide the departments with more control over tax revenues and the ability to create departmental police forces. These two direct challenges to Bolivia's centralized system are likely to be the most contentious. The MAS draft constitution (recently pushed through the constituent assembly in a way that limited opposition participation) lists a number of attributes of departmental autonomy (and also regional, indigenous, and municipal autonomies) that do not/not include the right to control taxes or create police forces. The draft constitution still needs to be submitted to national referenda in 2008. If the constitution does not receive a majority of votes in the autonomy-seeking departments, those departments might choose to ignore a new constitution in favor of the current constitution, thus creating a country with two de facto systems of law. Alternatively, if it passes the MAS may try to use the new constitution to combat autonomy, since the autonomy statutes appear to be "unconstitutional" under the MAS draft constitution. ¶4. (C) Ironically, some opposition members are thanking President Morales for giving them a focus to rally against and thus for creating unity among the opposition. Tarija prefect Mario Cossio publicly thanked Evo for "accelerating autonomy. Your undisguised hatred toward Tarija managed to unite our people in this fight...we warn you that we will not tolerate that you take even a cent of our royalties and gas taxes." A contact in the Santa Cruz prefect's office similarly told us that Evo is responsible for greater departmental unity: "Saturday was a big, beautiful party...Thanks to Evo! He motivated everyone to come together and get this (Santa Cruz's autonomy declaration) done. People are flooding to the plaza to sign the referendum petition." More ominously, our Santa Cruz contact added, "A lot of people also want to put their names on a list to get a gun, if civil resistance becomes necessary." ¶5. (C) On Friday December 14 at 10pm, EU Ambassadors met with President Morales to urge moderation and to convey a proposal from Cochabamba Prefect Manfred Reyes Villa for a meeting to try to iron out differences. According to the UK Ambassador, President Morales agreed to meet with the opposition Prefects, with an open agenda and with the EU Ambassadors participating as observers. The EU conveyed Reyes Villa's assurance to President Morales that the Prefects would behave with moderation on December 15 in return for a meeting with President Morales. The EU has conveyed Morales' response to Reyes Villa; it is now awaiting the final okay. Morales has already tentatively scheduled the meeting for 4pm on Wednesday, December 20 at the Palace. ¶6. (C) Comment: Currently all sides seem to be calling for a period of calm, probably to last until the end of the holiday season on January 6. International attention during the visit of Presidents Bachelet and Lula may be partially responsible for cooling Evo's formerly-heated rhetoric. International organizations, including the OAS and the EU, have offered to mediate or provide observers during the various upcoming referenda (including departmental referenda, the potential revoking referendum, and two constitutional referenda, Bolivia is facing potentially seven referenda in 2008.) With the highly-charged autonomy weekend behind us, it is looking like a quiet holiday season, although government efforts to rush through legislation authorizing a referendum on the constitution by the end of the year could end any holiday cheer. End comment. GOLDBERG