FEARS OF OPPOSITION ROUND-UP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LA PAZ 003244

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/2017
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: FEARS OF OPPOSITION ROUND-UP

REF: A. LA PAZ 3241


B. LA PAZ 3209

C. LA PAZ 3215

Classified By: EcoPol Chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) In separate meetings with Senate President Jose
Villavicencio (UN - Pando),Senator Fernando Romero (MNR -
Beni),and Erick Reyes Villa (brother of Cochabamba governor
Manfred Reyes Villa),all warned of a government plan to
round-up opposition leaders (governors and civic committee
presidents) within the coming days and charge them with
sedition. According to the three, Evo Morales' government is
contemplating arresting opposition leaders before or on
December 15, the day the opposition departments are scheduled
to declare de-facto autonomy. With the opposition governors
under arrest, Bolivian law allows for the president to
appoint interim prefects. Such a move by Evo would risk
unleashing violent protests in opposition states. While
common sense tells us that a government move against the
opposition is unlikely, Evo has not always acted with common
sense as guide. End Summary.

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FRANTIC PHONE CALLS AND URGENT MEETINGS
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2. (C) On December 12 Emboffs received a series of frantic
phone calls from Senate President Jose Villavicencio (UN -
Pando),Senator Fernando Romero (MNR - Beni),and Erick Reyes
Villa (brother of Cochabamba governor Manfred Reyes Villa)
urgently requesting to meet. In separate meetings the three
all expressed fear that Evo Morales will have regional
opposition leaders rounded up within the next few days and
charge them with sedition. The four half-moon (media luna)
departments declaration of de-facto autonomy planned for
December 15 would be the catalyst for the arrests.

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THE POSSIBLE PLAN
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3. (C) The government's possible plan, described the same
way by each, would be to have the Bolivian military arrest
the prefects and civic committee presidents (and their top
leadership) of Santa Cruz, Tarija, Cochabamba, Beni, Pando,
and Chuquisaca on or before December 15 and take them to an
undisclosed location. Under Bolivian law a person can be
held for 48 hours without charges. At that point a
prosecutor would have to file formal charges in order to keep
the suspects in custody. The law states that if a prefect is
awaiting prosecution the president is responsible for
appointing an interim governor. This move, said the senators
and Reyes Villa, will effectively cut off the heads of Evo's
regional opposition, neutralize any need for a revoking
referendum, and allow Evo to gain control of the county's
governorships. According to military contacts, the Morales
government has provided USD $5 million to the military for
fuel, possibly to prepare for a mobilization. News reports
on December 12 noted the transfer of 400 police to Santa Cruz.

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POSSIBLE FALLOUT
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4. (C) When asked what the risks and possible fallout from
such an action would be all replied there would be violent

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uprisings in the opposition states. Senator Villavicencio
thinks that the opposition would not be able to sustain those
protests much beyond a week. Senator Romero speculated that
the government would go after the easiest targets first
(Leopoldo Fernandez - Pando, Ernest Suarez - Beni, and
Manfred Reyes Villa- Cochabamba in his opinion). Reyes Villa
believes that the international community will not do
anything as "they are supporting Evo as we saw when he went
for Cristina Kirschner's inauguration."

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COMMENT
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5. (C) Rumors have been flying since the MAS passed its
constitution on December 9 and are reaching a crescendo as it
gets closer to the December 15 de-facto autonomy day. Common
sense would tell us that the government would not make such a
brazen move as the prefects are only planning to call for
departmental referendums on autonomy, not actually enact it.
And, Presidents Lula and Bachelet are scheduled to arrive
December 16 and Morales should not want to have chaos,
crackdown, and instability as the international headlines.
Evo has the opposition scrambling and may be trying to
intimidate them into calling off the autonomy declarations.
That said, Evo has not always acted with common sense as his
guide - - he could be feeling that he is running out of time,
and that the Chavez referendum defeat is a harbinger of
things to come; plus he has demonstrated, in the case of
Sucre, his determination to get his way even if violence
erupts. End Comment.
GOLDBERG