FEARS OF OPPOSITION ROUND-UP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LA PAZ 003244 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/2017 TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL BL SUBJECT: FEARS OF OPPOSITION ROUND-UP REF: A. LA PAZ 3241 ¶B. LA PAZ 3209 ¶C. LA PAZ 3215 Classified By: EcoPol Chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) In separate meetings with Senate President Jose Villavicencio (UN - Pando),Senator Fernando Romero (MNR - Beni),and Erick Reyes Villa (brother of Cochabamba governor Manfred Reyes Villa),all warned of a government plan to round-up opposition leaders (governors and civic committee presidents) within the coming days and charge them with sedition. According to the three, Evo Morales' government is contemplating arresting opposition leaders before or on December 15, the day the opposition departments are scheduled to declare de-facto autonomy. With the opposition governors under arrest, Bolivian law allows for the president to appoint interim prefects. Such a move by Evo would risk unleashing violent protests in opposition states. While common sense tells us that a government move against the opposition is unlikely, Evo has not always acted with common sense as guide. End Summary. -------------- FRANTIC PHONE CALLS AND URGENT MEETINGS -------------- ¶2. (C) On December 12 Emboffs received a series of frantic phone calls from Senate President Jose Villavicencio (UN - Pando),Senator Fernando Romero (MNR - Beni),and Erick Reyes Villa (brother of Cochabamba governor Manfred Reyes Villa) urgently requesting to meet. In separate meetings the three all expressed fear that Evo Morales will have regional opposition leaders rounded up within the next few days and charge them with sedition. The four half-moon (media luna) departments declaration of de-facto autonomy planned for December 15 would be the catalyst for the arrests. -------------- THE POSSIBLE PLAN -------------- ¶3. (C) The government's possible plan, described the same way by each, would be to have the Bolivian military arrest the prefects and civic committee presidents (and their top leadership) of Santa Cruz, Tarija, Cochabamba, Beni, Pando, and Chuquisaca on or before December 15 and take them to an undisclosed location. Under Bolivian law a person can be held for 48 hours without charges. At that point a prosecutor would have to file formal charges in order to keep the suspects in custody. The law states that if a prefect is awaiting prosecution the president is responsible for appointing an interim governor. This move, said the senators and Reyes Villa, will effectively cut off the heads of Evo's regional opposition, neutralize any need for a revoking referendum, and allow Evo to gain control of the county's governorships. According to military contacts, the Morales government has provided USD $5 million to the military for fuel, possibly to prepare for a mobilization. News reports on December 12 noted the transfer of 400 police to Santa Cruz. -------------- POSSIBLE FALLOUT -------------- ¶4. (C) When asked what the risks and possible fallout from such an action would be all replied there would be violent LA PAZ 00003244 002 OF 002 uprisings in the opposition states. Senator Villavicencio thinks that the opposition would not be able to sustain those protests much beyond a week. Senator Romero speculated that the government would go after the easiest targets first (Leopoldo Fernandez - Pando, Ernest Suarez - Beni, and Manfred Reyes Villa- Cochabamba in his opinion). Reyes Villa believes that the international community will not do anything as "they are supporting Evo as we saw when he went for Cristina Kirschner's inauguration." -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶5. (C) Rumors have been flying since the MAS passed its constitution on December 9 and are reaching a crescendo as it gets closer to the December 15 de-facto autonomy day. Common sense would tell us that the government would not make such a brazen move as the prefects are only planning to call for departmental referendums on autonomy, not actually enact it. And, Presidents Lula and Bachelet are scheduled to arrive December 16 and Morales should not want to have chaos, crackdown, and instability as the international headlines. Evo has the opposition scrambling and may be trying to intimidate them into calling off the autonomy declarations. That said, Evo has not always acted with common sense as his guide - - he could be feeling that he is running out of time, and that the Chavez referendum defeat is a harbinger of things to come; plus he has demonstrated, in the case of Sucre, his determination to get his way even if violence erupts. End Comment. GOLDBERG