AUTONOMIA! SCENARIOS FOR SANTA CRUZ

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 003241

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM ECON ASEC BL
SUBJECT: AUTONOMIA! SCENARIOS FOR SANTA CRUZ

REF: LA PAZ 1877

Classified By: EcoPol Counselor Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: When Santa Cruz leaders declare "autonomy" on
December 15, they will be meeting their citizens' demands for
more local control of regional resources, and at the same
time rejecting outright the new ruling MAS party
constitution. Although they insist they are not calling for
independence, they are bracing for a government reaction that
could possibly be as severe as a state of seige with military
repression, or as mild as a Christmas-time truce while
officials prepare for multiple referenda. Rumored opposition
actions that would most likely trigger a forceful government
response, such as shutting-off of energy or food supplies to
Evo's altiplano strongholds, and ceasing to submit tax
revenues to the central government, are unlikely in the near
term. While tempers and fears are running higher than we
have seen in recent years, this could well be one of those
classic Bolivian moments when things pass without much
incident. End summary.


2. (SBU) Political and civic leaders in Santa Cruz are clear
and determined in their intentions to adopt a legal framework
that will implement departmental autonomy. The draft
"Autonomy Statute" was composed by a group of constitutional
lawyers, who circulated the first draft in July 2007 (ref A).
For the past several weeks, the lawyers and civic committee
leaders have been consulting intensively with interest groups
throughout the department--from indigenous groups to local
government representatives to labor unions to business
associations--and incorporating suggestions. Santa Cruz
Senators and Deputies met to review the law on Monday
December 10, more changes were incorporated Tuesday December
11, and the civic committee convened an "Autonomous Assembly"
to start debating the draft on December 12. The Autonomous
Assembly consists of all elected officials from Santa Cruz
Department including the Prefect, senators and deputies,
mayors and city council presidents from all 56
municipalities, and all constitutional assembly
representatives from Santa Cruz--for a total of about 150
individuals. Attendance is not mandatory, and although they
were invited, most MAS officials are not expected to attend.


3. (SBU) Santa Cruz leaders emphasize that the autonomy
charter does NOT/NOT call for independence, but rather gives
specific financial and legislative powers to the regional
government within the framework of the Republic of Bolivia.
In addition, they point out their draft charter applies only
to Santa Cruz. Other Departments would need to draft their
own versions. Santa Cruz citizens largely feel that dialogue
has broken down with the Central Government, and that a
"negotiated" solution is impossible given the way the
President forced through his new constitution. Parading out
the Autonomy Charter is tit for tat, and gives Crucenos
something positive to rally around, rather than simply
protesting a constitution that is unacceptable.

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Santa Cruz Next Steps
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4. (C) While the Morales government celebrates its new
constitution in La Paz's main Plaza Murrillo on December 15,
Santa Cruz Prefect Ruben Costas and Civic Committee President
Branko Marinkovic will present the people of Santa Cruz with
the draft "Autonomy Statute" in Santa Cruz's main plaza. The
hunger strikers on the plaza in Santa Cruz, whose number has
swelled past 500 this week and continues to grow each day,
will lift their strike. There will be a big celebration.
The signature drive to call for a department-wide referendum
on the autonomy statute will begin. (Comment: While the
hunger strike did not achieve any political objective, it did
achieve two other goals: to keep the population focused on
the MAS "illegal" constitution, and to channel peoples' anger
into a peaceful protest. That said, strike facilitators
"escorted" twelve individuals suspected of being government
sympathizers from the plaza, and beat one of them violently
-- demonstrating that civic authorities are unable to control
the more radical groups. End comment.)


5. (SBU) There have been many rumors (especially in La Paz)
that Media Luna business interests will use economic pressure
to "punish" the western departments for supporting the
president. Rumored measures include turning off the gas and
oil supply or stopping commerce in meat, oil, and other foods
that are largely produced in the east. When a group of
transportation workers staged a demonstration December 5 in
front of the state-owned hydrocarboans company (YPFB) to
protest the continuing shortage of diesel fuel, panic spread
that the opposition had taken over the oil supply. On the
other hand, Crucenos are convinced that the central
government is withholding diesel intentionally to ruin the
planting season, which will result in a low harvest and
higher food prices, which the government will twist as
further proof of how the Santa Cruz "oligarchy" is trying to
starve the altiplano. Already, government TV propoganda is
trying to convince Bolivians that media luna (the opposition
departments of Santa Cruz, Beni, Pando and Tarija)
politicians have increased food prices for their own economic
and political interests.


6. (C) Some Santa Cruz leaders have told us that they do not
want to do anything that would harm the population in western
Bolivia and decrease sympathy for the cause of autonomy. The
bottom line is that business is business; refusing to sell
certain products hurts the sellers as much as the buyers.
Santa Cruz authorities are, however, want to stop
transferring tax proceeds to the Central Government and start
collecting their own taxes after a referendum on autonomy is
held.

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Government Response?
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7. (C) The December 15 parallel celebrations are expected to
be peaceful and festive. The question is what will happen
the day after (or even before)? The worst case scenario is
that the government would declare a state of seige, arrest
Costas and Marinkovic for treason (or attempting to divide
the country),and send in the military to repress the
population. If the government takes any of these actions,
the civilian population can be expected to resist violently.
In a press conference on December 12, Marinkovic claimed
that the government was preparing to arrest him and others,
although Costas has told us privately that he doubts this
will happen. Marinkovic also stated that the military is
fortifying its positions in Santa Cruz. This is consistent
with the reports we are getting from the military that they
are moving to pre-emptively protect government installations
from takeover by civilian groups. Both Costas and Marinkovic
have told us that they do not truly expect military or police
to fire on civilians, and that they are not planning any
civil unrest that would provoke such a reaction. General
Secretary of the Civic Committee Mario Bruno said that he has

SIPDIS
been in constant communication with the Eighth Division of
the Army in Santa Cruz, and that mid-level commanders are not
inclined to follow orders to "invade" the city or take lethal
action against civilians. We have been a similar message
from a variety of sources within the military. The police
are maintaining a low profile as well. Municipal guards have
been maintaining order around the main plaza during the
hunger strike, and national police commanders have been
careful to station police native to Santa Cruz in potentially
conflictive areas, rather than police from other areas of the
country.


8. (C) Another concerning possibility is that the central
government, knowing the military will not follow orders,
would instead send in loyalists such as cocaleros from the
near-by Chapare region to clash with the Santa Cruz
population. In this case, Cruzenos seemed to be poised to
shoot the "invaders." This scenario, however, is rather
unlikely given that Evo's social groups took a beating in
Sucre November 23-24 and were forced to retreat. And, they
know, they would face better armed and more extreme groups in
Santa Cruz.


9. (C) The most likely scenario, however, is that with
Christmas fast approaching and a near complete victory with
an approved MAS constitution, Evo will simply resort to
verbal attacks and mostly ignore the declaration of autonomy.
In fact, Evo has asked publicly for a Christmas truce,
although his ministers do continue to threaten forceful
action if Santa Cruz and other departments proceed with their
autonomy declarations. Without government "intervention" in
Santa Cruz, there is little probability of violence, aside
from possible random acts. This would provide both Morales
and the opposition time to start planning for the various
referenda that may be held in the coming months: on recalling
the president and prefects, on the new constitution, and on
regional autonomy statutes.

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Constitutional Referendum
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10. (C) Not surprisingly, the area of hottest debate is
whether Santa Cruz should participate in the constitutional
referendum. There are very strong opinions on both sides.
Many believe they should not justify the "illegal"
constitution with a vote. Others say that crucenos should
put all their time and energy into defeating a constitution
that they view as illegal, non-inclusive, and contrary to
their interests. They look to Venezuela as a precedent, and
argue that not participating would hand the MAS its
constitution on a silver platter. The two sides realize they
need to reach consensus soon, because waiting too long will
mean they lose valuable time that should be spent in getting
out their message and the vote.

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Comment
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11. (C) Daily life continues in Santa Cruz, but there is an
undercurrent of tension and uncertainty. Everyone is hoping
for the best (peaceful events with the major issues decided
via votes),but fearing the worst -- that the government will
move in and effectively decapitate their leadership with
targeted arrests. Feelings of regional patriotism are
running high, students are on vacation, and the smallest
spark could set off a wave of protest/violence that could be
hard to control.
GOLDBERG