AUTONOMIA! SCENARIOS FOR SANTA CRUZ

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 003241 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2017 TAGS: PGOV PHUM ECON ASEC BL SUBJECT: AUTONOMIA! SCENARIOS FOR SANTA CRUZ REF: LA PAZ 1877 Classified By: EcoPol Counselor Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: When Santa Cruz leaders declare "autonomy" on December 15, they will be meeting their citizens' demands for more local control of regional resources, and at the same time rejecting outright the new ruling MAS party constitution. Although they insist they are not calling for independence, they are bracing for a government reaction that could possibly be as severe as a state of seige with military repression, or as mild as a Christmas-time truce while officials prepare for multiple referenda. Rumored opposition actions that would most likely trigger a forceful government response, such as shutting-off of energy or food supplies to Evo's altiplano strongholds, and ceasing to submit tax revenues to the central government, are unlikely in the near term. While tempers and fears are running higher than we have seen in recent years, this could well be one of those classic Bolivian moments when things pass without much incident. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) Political and civic leaders in Santa Cruz are clear and determined in their intentions to adopt a legal framework that will implement departmental autonomy. The draft "Autonomy Statute" was composed by a group of constitutional lawyers, who circulated the first draft in July 2007 (ref A). For the past several weeks, the lawyers and civic committee leaders have been consulting intensively with interest groups throughout the department--from indigenous groups to local government representatives to labor unions to business associations--and incorporating suggestions. Santa Cruz Senators and Deputies met to review the law on Monday December 10, more changes were incorporated Tuesday December 11, and the civic committee convened an "Autonomous Assembly" to start debating the draft on December 12. The Autonomous Assembly consists of all elected officials from Santa Cruz Department including the Prefect, senators and deputies, mayors and city council presidents from all 56 municipalities, and all constitutional assembly representatives from Santa Cruz--for a total of about 150 individuals. Attendance is not mandatory, and although they were invited, most MAS officials are not expected to attend. ¶3. (SBU) Santa Cruz leaders emphasize that the autonomy charter does NOT/NOT call for independence, but rather gives specific financial and legislative powers to the regional government within the framework of the Republic of Bolivia. In addition, they point out their draft charter applies only to Santa Cruz. Other Departments would need to draft their own versions. Santa Cruz citizens largely feel that dialogue has broken down with the Central Government, and that a "negotiated" solution is impossible given the way the President forced through his new constitution. Parading out the Autonomy Charter is tit for tat, and gives Crucenos something positive to rally around, rather than simply protesting a constitution that is unacceptable. - - - - - - - - - - - Santa Cruz Next Steps - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (C) While the Morales government celebrates its new constitution in La Paz's main Plaza Murrillo on December 15, Santa Cruz Prefect Ruben Costas and Civic Committee President Branko Marinkovic will present the people of Santa Cruz with the draft "Autonomy Statute" in Santa Cruz's main plaza. The hunger strikers on the plaza in Santa Cruz, whose number has swelled past 500 this week and continues to grow each day, will lift their strike. There will be a big celebration. The signature drive to call for a department-wide referendum on the autonomy statute will begin. (Comment: While the hunger strike did not achieve any political objective, it did achieve two other goals: to keep the population focused on the MAS "illegal" constitution, and to channel peoples' anger into a peaceful protest. That said, strike facilitators "escorted" twelve individuals suspected of being government sympathizers from the plaza, and beat one of them violently -- demonstrating that civic authorities are unable to control the more radical groups. End comment.) ¶5. (SBU) There have been many rumors (especially in La Paz) that Media Luna business interests will use economic pressure to "punish" the western departments for supporting the president. Rumored measures include turning off the gas and oil supply or stopping commerce in meat, oil, and other foods that are largely produced in the east. When a group of transportation workers staged a demonstration December 5 in front of the state-owned hydrocarboans company (YPFB) to protest the continuing shortage of diesel fuel, panic spread that the opposition had taken over the oil supply. On the other hand, Crucenos are convinced that the central government is withholding diesel intentionally to ruin the planting season, which will result in a low harvest and higher food prices, which the government will twist as further proof of how the Santa Cruz "oligarchy" is trying to starve the altiplano. Already, government TV propoganda is trying to convince Bolivians that media luna (the opposition departments of Santa Cruz, Beni, Pando and Tarija) politicians have increased food prices for their own economic and political interests. ¶6. (C) Some Santa Cruz leaders have told us that they do not want to do anything that would harm the population in western Bolivia and decrease sympathy for the cause of autonomy. The bottom line is that business is business; refusing to sell certain products hurts the sellers as much as the buyers. Santa Cruz authorities are, however, want to stop transferring tax proceeds to the Central Government and start collecting their own taxes after a referendum on autonomy is held. - - - - - - - - - - - Government Response? - - - - - - - - - - - ¶7. (C) The December 15 parallel celebrations are expected to be peaceful and festive. The question is what will happen the day after (or even before)? The worst case scenario is that the government would declare a state of seige, arrest Costas and Marinkovic for treason (or attempting to divide the country),and send in the military to repress the population. If the government takes any of these actions, the civilian population can be expected to resist violently. In a press conference on December 12, Marinkovic claimed that the government was preparing to arrest him and others, although Costas has told us privately that he doubts this will happen. Marinkovic also stated that the military is fortifying its positions in Santa Cruz. This is consistent with the reports we are getting from the military that they are moving to pre-emptively protect government installations from takeover by civilian groups. Both Costas and Marinkovic have told us that they do not truly expect military or police to fire on civilians, and that they are not planning any civil unrest that would provoke such a reaction. General Secretary of the Civic Committee Mario Bruno said that he has SIPDIS been in constant communication with the Eighth Division of the Army in Santa Cruz, and that mid-level commanders are not inclined to follow orders to "invade" the city or take lethal action against civilians. We have been a similar message from a variety of sources within the military. The police are maintaining a low profile as well. Municipal guards have been maintaining order around the main plaza during the hunger strike, and national police commanders have been careful to station police native to Santa Cruz in potentially conflictive areas, rather than police from other areas of the country. ¶8. (C) Another concerning possibility is that the central government, knowing the military will not follow orders, would instead send in loyalists such as cocaleros from the near-by Chapare region to clash with the Santa Cruz population. In this case, Cruzenos seemed to be poised to shoot the "invaders." This scenario, however, is rather unlikely given that Evo's social groups took a beating in Sucre November 23-24 and were forced to retreat. And, they know, they would face better armed and more extreme groups in Santa Cruz. ¶9. (C) The most likely scenario, however, is that with Christmas fast approaching and a near complete victory with an approved MAS constitution, Evo will simply resort to verbal attacks and mostly ignore the declaration of autonomy. In fact, Evo has asked publicly for a Christmas truce, although his ministers do continue to threaten forceful action if Santa Cruz and other departments proceed with their autonomy declarations. Without government "intervention" in Santa Cruz, there is little probability of violence, aside from possible random acts. This would provide both Morales and the opposition time to start planning for the various referenda that may be held in the coming months: on recalling the president and prefects, on the new constitution, and on regional autonomy statutes. - - - - - - - - - - - - - Constitutional Referendum - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶10. (C) Not surprisingly, the area of hottest debate is whether Santa Cruz should participate in the constitutional referendum. There are very strong opinions on both sides. Many believe they should not justify the "illegal" constitution with a vote. Others say that crucenos should put all their time and energy into defeating a constitution that they view as illegal, non-inclusive, and contrary to their interests. They look to Venezuela as a precedent, and argue that not participating would hand the MAS its constitution on a silver platter. The two sides realize they need to reach consensus soon, because waiting too long will mean they lose valuable time that should be spent in getting out their message and the vote. - - - - Comment - - - - ¶11. (C) Daily life continues in Santa Cruz, but there is an undercurrent of tension and uncertainty. Everyone is hoping for the best (peaceful events with the major issues decided via votes),but fearing the worst -- that the government will move in and effectively decapitate their leadership with targeted arrests. Feelings of regional patriotism are running high, students are on vacation, and the smallest spark could set off a wave of protest/violence that could be hard to control. GOLDBERG