MEDIA LUNA MASISTAS: CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 003189

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/06/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: MEDIA LUNA MASISTAS: CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE

REF: A. LA PAZ 3138

B. LA PAZ 3118

Classified By: A/DCM Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Moderate ruling-party MAS members complain
that they are labeled as traitors by President Evo Morales.
They also lament an increasingly hostile environment in the
Congress as Morales has decided to take a tougher line with
the legislative branch. Nevertheless, MAS Senator Guido
Guardia is confident his moderate views will eventually be
vindicated by the "silent majority" of Bolivians who are
tired of extremist politics. He believes Evo has no choice
but to move to the political center, as his choice is not
between competing versions of a new constitution, but between
a new constitution and a civil war he cannot win. According
to Guardia, the Venezuelan referendum December 2 and Chavez's
reaction to the vote provide an example for Bolivia and Evo
Morales, respectively. However, early indications are that
Evo is undeterred by the Chavez defeat and remains ever more
determined to deliver a Christmas present for his radical MAS
supporters -- a new constitution. End Summary.

Lonely MAS "Rebels" on the Outs
--------------


2. (C) MAS Senator Guido Guardia told PolOff December 4 he is
the "only rebel" MAS Congressman speaking out against
extra-legal actions of the government. Since publishing an
open letter to the President Evo Morales, Guardia has been
branded a traitor by ruling MAS-party leadership and politely
shunned by his MAS colleagues since. In the letter, Guardia
criticized the government's handling of the Constituent
Assembly issue and resulting violent protests. Guardia
recounted a call from a journalist notifying him that his
letter was stapled to list of photos of congressmen that MAS
loyalists were not/not going to allow into Congress. Guardia
was indeed barred from the November 27 session, along with
most members of the opposition. His photo on the list was
superimposed with the words "sold out."


3. (C) Guardia said that although many MAS members share his
disapproval of the government's recent "illegal" tactics,
they do not feel strongly enough to voice their concerns
given that they agree with the desired end result. MAS
Deputy Ana Lucia Reis said she boycotts votes she disagrees
with, such as the controversial November 27 session vote to
change Constituent Assembly rules. She claimed "very few"
MAS representatives in the lower house (Chamber of Deputies)
used this as a form of dissent, which she acknowledged was a
weak form of protest.

Evo's New Insult and Order Congressional Approach
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Both Guardia and Reis praised the Congress for its (at
least off-camera) bipartisanship and as a promoter of
compromise. Reis claimed this changed decidedly with
Morales' adoption of a more hands-on approach to the
Congress, which Evo laid out to MAS congressional
representatives in mid-November. Reis said Morales spent
most of the meeting insulting members, calling them "all
worthless" and asserting: "I am governing by myself; none of
you are helping me." Morales' message, according to Reis:
"if you can't do anything, I will tell you what to do and you
will do it." Morales then declared the constitution would be
passed by December 14. He singled out MAS Senator Peredo to
"go in the kitchen with the women if you can't do anything in
the Congress."


5. (C) Some representatives found this heavy-handedness,
which has been building for some time, to be disrespectful of
their role. But most of the new deputies swept into power on
Evo's coattails are content to fall in line, disposed to
Evo-worship with no experience or internal sense of
direction. It does not help, Reis adds, that many new
deputies need Evo's benevolence, as they cannot survive on
their meager salaries.

Suspicious Minds and No Open Arms for Moderates
-------------- --


6. (C) Guardia said he feels very vulnerable being the only
MAS Senator in the three opposition-dominated "Amazonian"
states of Santa Cruz, Beni, and Pando. Although his moderate
views have gained him some acceptance from opposition
circles, he fears attacks on self and property from radical
opposition youth, who are not fully under "anyone's control"
and may be unaware of his break with the government. Just a
year ago, youth groups were hanging effigies of Guardia in
Santa Cruz's main square "just for being MAS." He complained
to PolOff that he could not depend on MAS protection and told
the media that the MAS has imposed a "death sentence" on him.
He told PolOff he was surprised at the hostility of the MAS
response to his letter, since "it only asks the President to
negotiate for the good of the people and to stop meddling in
other branches of government."


7. (C) Pando Prefect Leopoldo Fernandez allegedly has scolded
Reis, telling her to get off the fence and "pick a side."
The opposition-aligned Prefect said she had no excuse for
supporting the government as a businesswoman and "not
indigenous," which Reis found offensive. She has also lost
standing with Morales and, to a lesser extent, with the MAS
President of the Chamber of Deputies, once a close ally.

Fear of Radicals
--------------


8. (C) Although she sympathizers with resentment over the
blocking of opposition congressmen from the November 27
session, Reis was appalled that a rogue pro-opposition mob
burned down the home of alternate Senator Abraham Cuellar for
attending and voting to redistribute funds from department
(state) coffers. She claimed Prefect Fernandez was furious
with the organizers, who have made his life "infinitely
harder." Although there have been no threats against Reis
yet, and she continues to be personally popular in Pando, she
is nevertheless taking out insurance on her hotel this week.
Reis is concerned leaders on both sides will not be able to
control their radical supporters.


9. (C) The opposition was also blamed for torching the home
of Chuquisaca Prefect (Governor) David Sanchez, another MAS
moderate, following violent November 23-24 protests. Reis,
however, claimed sources in the MAS point to a government
organization as responsible for the arson. The MAS was upset
with Sanchez for his perceived weak support of the
government, calls to compromise with the opposition, and gall
to interrupt the Constituent Assembly in Sucre on November
24, asking them to adjourn in light of outbreak in violence.

MAS Fear in Santa Cruz; Defiance in Pando
--------------


10. (C) Guardia explained that fellow moderate MAS supporters
in his state of Santa Cruz feel boxed in between fear of
opposition forces and prodding by more radical MAS leadership
in La Paz to publicly support President Morales, a feeling
echoed by MAS Santa Cruz City Councilman Osvaldo Peredo
(Reftel A). In the end, Guardia said Santa Cruz MAS
supporters were "afraid to say anything," let alone organize
counter-demonstrations. PolOff reported December 5 that
national police in Santa Cruz are staying away from an
opposition gathering of about 1,000 and leaving security to
city authorities. In the wake of violent clashes between
police and protesters in Sucre November 23-24, Santa Cruz
police are so afraid of triggering public anger they are
hesitant to even write traffic tickets.


11. (C) The leaders of Santa Cruz's four indigenous
ethnicities also burned a copy of the MAS-drafted
constitution and joined 70 Cruzenos in a hunger strike today.
One of the leaders, Jose Urananzi with the Autonomous
Indigenous Council, chided President Morales as an
"indigenous farmer" and claimed the group could not support a
constitution "without consensus and with the death of
Bolivians." Indigenous leaders in Beni similarly rejected
the constitution and joined an opposition hunger strike.
Hunger strikes and demonstrations continue throughout six of
Bolivia's nine departments.


12. (C) Reis discounted violence in Pando November 30 as an
aberration in the normally peaceful department of Pando. She
said the incident was fueled by the involvement of national
police, shipped in from La Paz ostensible to keep order for a
march of thousands of MAS supporters. This perceived affront
to Pando's sense of autonomy resulted in six badly beaten
police officers and the kidnapping of five others.
Eventually the police agreed to quarter themselves outside of
the capital of Cobija pending transportation back to La Paz
and the hostages were released. A child was hospitalized
from inhaling riot gas, but not killed, as some media
reported. Reis said the MAS will continue to be vocal and
organize counter-demonstrations in Pando, but as long as the
national government does not provoke similar confrontations,
there should be no violence. She warned however, that the
government could "choose" to interpret largely-symbolic
opposition road closures at the Pando's borders starting
December 3 to be an act of "sedition," even though the
blockades could easily be avoided by using side roads.

Will Silent Majority Push MAS to Moderation?
--------------


13. (C) Despite the pressure and potential risk, Guardia has
no plans to change party affiliation or his "aggressively
moderate" positions. "I will not change. Morales and the
opposition radicals will have to change." He claimed his
positions are not just altruistic sacrifice, but will prove
to enhance his political standing in the long run. He said
Morales will soon have to reach out to moderate leaders to
build bridges, realizing that the vast majority of Bolivians
are moderates who are "more concerned with their livelihoods
than ideology." He claimed this silent majority of moderates
would force leaders to emerge or reposition themselves in the
center, where Morales used to be and where there is "giant
gap" now. He took a seemingly biblical tone with the media,
declaring in an interview that: "I forgive the president and
his advisors; they don't know what they're doing." He told
PolOff he was confident time would prove him right and that
"there is still a lot of time" to work out compromises before
a referendum on the MAS-drafted constitution, "if it even
needs to get to that stage."


14. (C) Reis was not as optimistic that the MAS would
de-radicalize, but cannot reconcile aligning herself with the
opposition. Once an influential player within the Chamber of
Deputies, she feels trapped between the extremes, used by the
MAS, and appears resigned to distancing herself from
controversy.

Venezuelan Referendum will "Show Morales the Way"
-------------- --------------


15. (C) Guardia said Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has
"provided a path for (President) Morales" to back away from a
zero-sum game on the Constitution and negotiate with the
opposition. He said the December 2 vote against granting
Chavez additional powers showed Evo a referendum victory for
the MAS-drafted constitution is not guaranteed and to accept
such setbacks to his change agenda in a "dignified and
peaceful way." Guardia asserted Morales' recent overtures to
the opposition are more than political window dressing, but
represent a realization that his "my way or the highway"
approach to ramming his will on Congress and the Constituent
Assembly is a flawed strategy which will ultimately lead to a
civil war he cannot win and international isolation. "The
choice is not between this or that constitution, it is
between a constitution and civil war."

16. (C) Guardia said the government might even postpone a new
constitution for a time in order to allow both sides a
"pause," if it could achieve some key goals through
amendments to the existing constitution. Guardia predicts
Morales will sideline advisors who tell him "he can have
everything without a cost," re-engage with the opposition,
and save face by appearing to sacrifice his own political
agenda "for the people." Guardia has said publicly that "if
Evo doesn't change his attitude he'll end up like
(ex-President Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada) Goni, sidelined on
the bench waiting for judgment."

Comment
--------------


17. (C) Times are indeed tough for Media Luna MASistas, at
least the very few that are gutsy enough to push back against
the government. But, these moderates reveal some MAS
discontent with Evo. Morales' base in El Alto also appears a
bit restless: El Alto social leaders have demanded that
Morales appoint three ministers from there, a November poll
showed support for Evo in El Alto down from the usual over 90
percent to 80 percent, and, as inflation rises into double
digits, those most likely to feel the pain will be the poor
Altenos. In the near term, there is no serious threat to Evo
from within as most MASistas recognize that without him there
is no one to hold the party together. Evo, however, needs to
produce a victory for his supporters and at the moment he is
zeroed-in on delivering a new constitution.
URS