EVO'S PLANS FOR ADVANCING HIS CONSTITUTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 003168

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/04/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: EVO'S PLANS FOR ADVANCING HIS CONSTITUTION

Classified By: A/DCM Mike Hammer, reason 1.4 b and d

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Summary
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1. (C) With 10 days remaining until the December 14
deadline ending the Constituent Assembly mandate, President
Evo Morales appears determined to deliver a constitution to
his base. Government calls for dialogue with the opposition
ring hollow, particularly as the ruling MAS party is telling
the press that it has plans for approving its constitution.
The MAS is poised to reconvene the Constituent Assembly any
day now. Meanwhile, the opposition is split on whether or
not to boycott future Constituent Assembly plenary sessions.
Even if the opposition tries to participate, it is expected
that the MAS will make it impossible for them, either by
choosing a site that is hostile or by physically blocking
access. If the opposition does not participate or cannot, it
will be left with one procedural option to defeat Evo's new
constitution -- win the final referendum (expected in 90-120
days). End Summary.

Evo/MAS Poised to Forge Ahead
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2. (C) Word from the government since the tragic events in
Sucre is clear: Evo is determined to deliver a constitution
to his base before the Constituent Assembly's mandate runs
out December 14. Some in the opposition fear the divisive
repercussions of a MAS-only constitution and are urging that
all opposition parties participate in the Constituent
Assembly when it reconvenes. The MAS, however, clearly is
not interested in resuming discussions with the opposition as
that would only complicate their ability to approve the
constitution before the deadline. Therefore, it is expected
that the MAS will impede the opposition's participation in
the Constituent Assembly, either by choosing a location that
is so hostile to the opposition that they will choose not to
go or by physically preventing them from entering, as
happened when MAS protesters blocked Senators from entering
Congress on November 26. Depending on opposition
maneuvering, the MAS may be required to submit two referenda
to the Bolivian people: one on controversial articles and one
on the whole text of the constitution. Evo and the MAS seem
intent on presenting a democratic facade, hence their
continued willingness to submit their constitution to a
referendum, despite the shock of Chavez' defeat this past
Sunday.

Opposition Options
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3. (C) The opposition has limited ways it can affect the
outcome of the Constituent Assembly. If the opposition
chooses to participate fully (and if the MAS allows them to)
they can negotiate to produce a constitutional text, with
certain debated articles being sent to the people for an
initial referendum. Alternatively, and more likely, they
could produce a deadlock that prevents a constitutional text
before the December 14 deadline. Some speculate that a
deadlock could lead to further extension of the Constituent
Assembly. However, if the opposition chooses to boycott the
Assembly entirely (or the MAS blocks them from
participating),the opposition will have only one other
chance to stop the final constitution: they will have to rely
on the final referendum. In this case, a Venezuelan 'no'
outcome would be the opposition's only chance.


4. (C) Comment: While it may be in the opposition's best
interest to participate in the Constituent Assembly's
remaining sessions, the opposition is split and it appears
the boycotters are winning the day. Unidad Nacional party
complains to us that the main opposition party Podemos
refuses to participate. That said, plugged-in Podemos party
members have told us that party leader Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga
has come around and is urging his party faithful to
participate, but Podemos followers in Sucre and Santa Cruz
remain obstinate. Others within the opposition apparently
want to focus their efforts on defeating a final referendum
and are emboldened by the recent defeat of Hugo Chavez. End
Comment.

Evo Says He Will Not Impose Martial Law
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5. (SBU) In an attempt to squelch rampant rumors, President
Morales said publicly December 4 that he will not impose
martial law. Defense Minister Walker San Miguel was quick to
accuse authorities in Santa Cruz, Tarija, Beni, Pando,
Chuquisaca and Cochabamba Departments of fomenting these
rumors in order to "provoke major violence and confrontations
between Bolivians." When asked about the four opposition
prefects who traveled to the United States to meet OAS SYG
Insulza, Morales stated that he would welcome "the EU, the
OAS to investigate the violence that occurred" in Sucre
November 23-24. (Note: The government has thus far
rejected any notion of having the church or an international
mediator try to reinitiate dialogue, which Tuto Quiroga has
repeatedly called for.)

Comment
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6. (C) We seem to be in a period of calm before the storm,
as the MAS and opposition strategize in advance of the
December 14 Constituent Assembly deadline. While both the
government and opposition are determined to deny the other
side a victory, it is the MAS that has the upper hand. The
MAS can dictate when and how the Constituent Assembly
proceeds, and it is determined to produce an approved
constitution it can take to a referendum, preferably while
preserving some appearance of a democratic process. Evo may
want the Constituent Assembly to approve a constitution in
advance of President Lula's and Bachelet's visit here
December 11-12 in the hopes that their visit projects a sense
of legitimacy.
URS