EVO'S APPROVAL DROPS; EXPECT NEW INITIATIVES

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 003151

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: EVO'S APPROVAL DROPS; EXPECT NEW INITIATIVES

Classified By: EcoPol Chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

- - - -
Summary
- - - -


1. (SBU) While celebrating his ruling Movement Toward
Socialism (MAS) party's recent "victories" in the Congress
and Constituent Assembly, President Evo Morales must also be
concerned about his drop in popularity, recent discontent in
his stronghold of El Alto, planned protests by his once loyal
base of cooperativist miners, and the ever-present threat of
civil disobedience and resistance by six of Bolivia's nine
departments. Two November polls, taken before the November
23-25 violence in Sucre, show the President's approval at one
of its lowest points since taking office. Civic groups in El
Alto, a city where he routinely registers 90 percent
approval, announced that they would take their own measures
if the President did not appoint some of its people to his
cabinet. Meanwhile some cooperativist miners have announced
a state of emergency in response to the MAS' draft
constitution stating it did not take their concerns into
consideration. Morales called for dialogue with opposition
prefects November 29, but was rejected by all them, each
essentially arguing they did not trust the President's
overture. Evo has in the past rebounded from dips in his
approval ratings by announcing new grand political programs;
with trouble on several fronts we can expect new initiatives
in the near future or an effort to tout the upcoming
gathering of Presidents Luiz Ingnacio "Lula" Da Silva and
Michelle Bachelet as a great success. End Summary.

- - - - - - - - - -
Evo's Approval Dips
- - - - - - - - - -


2. (U) Two recent polls show that Evo's approval has fallen
to one of its lowest points since taking office. A recent
Ipsos Apoyo poll (conducted November 12-18) has the
President's approval at 52 percent; an Equipos Mori poll
(conducted November 9-13) registered a 54 percent approval.
The President's lowest point was 50 percent (according to
Equipos Mori) in October 2006 following a miners' dispute in
Huanuni which left 16 people dead.


3. (SBU) Comment: Both polls were taken before the November
23-25 violence in Sucre which claimed three lives and
hundreds of injured. Usually following such events a
President's popularity tends to drop several points, as was
the case with Huanuni. On the other hand, the polls do not
register the Constituent Assembly's approval of the MAS'
constitution (in general terms) November 24, and its likely
final approval in December. Morales supporters who had lost
faith in his delivering a new constitution are now rejoicing
and are clearly back in the Morales corner. The Equipos Mori
poll shows that seniors, people 61-years old and over, were
the demographic that registered the lowest level of approval.
The President's new pension plan "Renta Dignidad" may draw
more seniors to Evo, but, this group's size pales in
comparison to the sub-senior population, meaning the new
pension may not provide him much of a bump. However, if 40-
and 50-year olds believe this pension will stay in effect
until they reach retirement age, "Renta Dignidad might
actually serve to soften what should be a drop in the
President's December approval ratings. End Comment.

- - - - - - - - - -
Agitated in El Alto
- - - - - - - - - -


4. (SBU) The El Alto Inter-Institutional Committee, which
includes the powerful Confederation of Neighborhoods
(FEJUVE),met on November 29 to demand that President Morales
appoint three cabinet officials to government ministries
which were previously occupied by El Alto residents,
threatening to make their own "way" if their demands were not
met. The meeting was sparked by Evo's decision to replace
scandal-plagued Water Minister Abel Mamani with interim
minister Walter Valda. Valda is from Chuquisaca, the
department which has been demanding the restoration of
legislative and executive branches to Sucre over the very
strong protests of El Alto. Mamani, before joining Morales'
administration in January 2006, fronted a popular campaign to
reverse the privatization of El Alto's water company (Aguas
de Illimani). Mamani faces influence peddling charges, but
what appears to have led to his dismissal were a series of
embarrassing photos of the married Water Minister with a
half-naked woman who was not is wife.


5. (C) Comment: Evo is not likely to lose El Alto anytime
soon, as he routinely registers a 90 percent approval rating.
The President certainly knows he cannot afford to lose El
Alto's support and is certainly listening to the complaints.
We can future cabinet appointment(s) will include someone
from this critical MAS stronghold. End Comment).

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Miners Miffed over MAS Magna Carta
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


6. (SBU) Various cooperativist miner organizations have
begun to protest the MAS' new draft constitution.
Approximately five-hundred former Huanuni cooperativists,
unemployed for almost a year since the nationalization of the
Huanuni deposit, marched on Sucre to reject the draft
constitution. There they expressed their "unconditional
support to the city of Sucre for the legal process that was
not respected by the government in the vote on the (draft)
constitution" according to their president Profirio Mamani.
In the draft constitution, indigenous groups would be granted
rights to land that they have traditionally used and rights
to a share in the profits from resources on their traditional
land. Currently there are as many as 50 cases (depending on
the source of the information) of indigenous or campesino
groups taking over small mines by force, claiming an
indigenous right to the land. (Comment: On November 7, the
Bolivian government signed into law the United Nations
Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples, which is
being cited by indigenous groups as justifying their taking
of the mines. In many ways, the draft constitution merely
restates what is already now Bolivian law. End comment.)
The threat of more indigenous "takings" of cooperative mines
has turned the cooperativists against the draft constitution
and, to some extent, against the MAS.


7. (SBU) There have been previous signs of discord between
the cooperativist mining sector and the MAS, particularly
when the MAS-led government has favored state-employed miners
against cooperativists. In July, the leader of cooperativist
miners in Oruro complained that President Morales
discriminates against them in favor of the campesinos: "The
cooperative miners are supporters of the state, more than the
campesinos and indigenous, yet disgracefully they want to run
the country . . . we are not against the indigenous, but we
cannot go backwards"" The cooperativist miners are
considered a dangerous political enemy, partially due to
their tendency to protest with dynamite and massive marches.
During the last major protest by Huanuni cooperativist
miners, President Morales attacked them publicly, saying,
"Before, the miners fought for the Bolivian people and not
just for a sector, region, or municipality, and now they are
becoming a sector that damages the country."

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Evo (Belatedly) Calls for Dialogue . . .
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


8. (SBU) Following a meeting with European Union
Ambassadors President Evo Morales publicly called on
opposition prefects and business leaders to meet with him to
open a dialogue. However, the President's appeal focused
more on regional development and investment issues and not
the opposition's main concerns which center on the ruling
Movement Toward Socialism's (MAS) recent unilateral actions
within the Constituent Assembly and Congress. Morales'
statement included, "We want a debate so that investments are
transparent. I want to ask that the prefects for their help
in promoting the law against corruption." (Note:
Presidential Spokesperson Alex Contreras later argued the
President was open to dialogue without conditions. End
Note). Rather than strike a conciliatory tone with the
prefects, Evo once again criticized the prefect's recent acts
of civil disobedience (general strikes and hunger strikes)
and argued the prefect's are hypocrites seeking to divide the
nation. The President stated, "We (the government) are
responsible for defending the unity of the country and
democracy, and not with double speak."

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
. . . And the Opposition Rejects the Call
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


9. (SBU) President Morales' oft repeated phrase "we are
from a culture of dialogue" did not ring true with the six
prefects of Beni, Cochabamba, Pando, Santa Cruz and Tarija.
Each argued in his own way that the President could no longer
be trusted, and that without confidence building measures
negotiation was impossible. Sucre and Chuquisaca civic
leaders also rejected the President's call for dialogue.
(Note: Chuquisaca Prefect David Sanchez remains in hiding
since the deadly violence in Sucre November 23-25. End
Note). The Prefect of Santa Cruz perhaps summarized the
opposition's response most succinctly stating, "The President
of the Republic should ask for forgiveness from the people of
Chuquisaca for the deaths (that occurred November 23-25); he
needs to put back in place all legal conditions in the
country, and realize that it is he who (attacked) all
Bolivians. Santa Cruz Provisional Autonomic Assembly
President (and PODEMOS deputy),Carlos Pablo Klinksy
announced on November 29 that the department's autonomy
statute (announced in July) would be sent for a public
referendum after December 14, the date that Constituent
Assembly is scheduled to finish. The Santa Cruz statute
would directly conflict with the MAS' constitution.


10. (SBU) Some opposition prefects (depending on the
situation in their departments) are still considering a trip
to Washington sometime during the week of December 3 with the
intention of meeting with the Organization of American (OAS).
They hope to motivate the international community into
becoming involved and welcome an opportunity to brief U.S.
officials at State.

- - - -
Comment
- - - -


11. (SBU) The President has shown a propensity to
bounce-back from low approval ratings. In November 2006 he
rebounded using new government programs (money for school
aged children) and political theater (the signing of new
hydrocarbons contracts and a new land reform law). The
November 2007 conflicts and deaths will almost certainly push
Evo's current poll numbers further down. Rising inflation
and uncertainty over what "resistance measures" the
opposition departments will actually carry-out also make it
unlikely that Evo's approval rises in December.


12. (C) Evo is not one to leave anything to chance, we can
expect some grand political gestures in the near future to
restore some luster to his (slightly) tarnished image. He
launched his first salvo on November 29 by announcing the
government would expropriate (with compensation) 180 thousand
hectares of land in the Chuquisacan Chaco for the
long-exploited Guarani peoples. The move is a brilliant
tactic as it takes land from presumably opposition landowners
and "compensates" indigenous peoples in the Chuquisaca, the
very department that was the center of the November 23-25
violence. Evo will undoubtedly also try to use the December
10-12 visits of Lula and Bachelet to project an air of
normalcy and legitimacy as well as tout "important" new
commitments in gas investments. End Comment.
GOLDBERG