CONFLICT IN BOLIVIA: NO END IN SIGHT

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 003141

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/29/2017
TAGS: PHUM PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: CONFLICT IN BOLIVIA: NO END IN SIGHT

REF: A. LA PAZ 3078


B. LA PAZ 3118

Classified By: EcoPol chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (C) With the ruling Movement Toward Socialism (MAS)
poised to reconvene the Constituent Assembly perhaps as early
as November 30 in the La Paz area or other friendly terrain,
and the opposition stronghold of Santa Cruz stating it will
declare defacto autonomy December 15, a cessation in
Bolivia's recent cycle of violence and turmoil seems
unlikely. Even with police protection, opposition
Constituent Assembly delegates have reason to fear for their
safety if the MAS convenes the Assembly at a less than
friendly site or surrounded by MAS supporters. Some in the
opposition have expressed their interest in attending to
prevent the MAS from fully approving its constitution within
the Assembly; but, without nearly complete (which is
unlikely) attendance they will fail. Three different drafts
of the MAS constitution are in circulation, no one seems to
know exactly which draft the MAS approved "en grande"
(general terms) on November 24.


2. (C) Rumors are running rampant within La Paz. What is
clear is that the government is prepared to take
extraordinary means to push forward their goal to extend
Evo's stay in office beyond his current five year term. News
outlets and one Embassy contact reported the government used
an air force plane to bring an alternate Senator to La Paz
November 28, so that he could vote on new legislation
impacting the Constituent Assembly while pro-MAS groups
physically prevented the opposition from entering Congress.
A delegation of European Union ambassadors held a breakfast
with President Morales November 29, but left the meeting
unconvinced the President would seek a peaceful resolution to
the current volatile political situation. End Summary.

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MAS Offers Lions Den as Assembly Site
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3. (C) The MAS appears poised to reconvene the Constituent
Assembly perhaps as early as November 30. El Alto, where
President Morales routinely registers a 90 percent approval
rating, is the preferred venue in La Paz department, although
others say the Congress building might be used.


4. (C) Emboff spoke to a La Paz PODEMOS Constituent
Assembly member November 29 who explained that the La Paz
delegation from PODEMOS was prepared to go to the next
session(s) of the Constituent Assembly in order to stop the
MAS from approving their constitution article-by-article.
Under this scenario PODEMOS would need to project a united
front; PODEMOS delegates from Santa Cruz, Chuquisaca and
other opposition departments would have to participate which
in recent days some have ruled out completely. In fact, on
November 29, PODEMOS deputy Carlos Pablo Klinksy from Santa
Cruz announced his department would declare its autonomy
December 15. PODEMOS would also need the support of smaller
opposition parties to muster the necessary one-third to block
the MAS' article-by-article vote.

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Three Constitutions Better than One
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5. (SBU) Violating numerous Constituent Assembly procedural
and voting rules and without even reading the contents of
their constitutional document the MAS delegates approved the
MAS' draft constitution "en grande" (in general terms) on
November 24 (ref A). Not surprisingly, given that the full
text was never distributed to the voting delegates, there is
now a minor controversy brewing over which version of the MAS
constitution was approved. La Paz daily newspaper La Prensa,
published a version of the MAS constitution on November 28
which MAS Constituent Assembly delegate (and supposedly one
of the constitution's main drafters) Raul Prada confirmed as
the version which was voted upon November 24. However,
influential MAS Senator Santos Ramirez has stated another
version of the constitution, dated from November 22, is the
official document. Constituent Assembly President Silvia
Lazarte, also of the MAS, argues yet a third version of the
MAS constitution is what passed on November 24. The
differences amongst the three versions are actually trivial.
This minor controversy reflects more on the chaos that
surrounded the approval of the MAS constitution on November
24, and demonstrates how most delegates had very little
detailed knowledge of what they were voting on. Also, by
creating confusion over which is the actual text, the MAS
leaves itself the option of revising it if its core
constituency is unhappy with a particular article.

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Alternates Fly MASair
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6. (SBU) According to La Paz daily newspaper La Prensa, the
government facilitated the travel of the two "suplente"
(alternate) Senators -- Abraham Cuellar and Andres Heredia )
both of whom were critical to the MAS's strategy of a pulling
together quorum on November 27 without the presence of the
opposition. Pro-MAS groups successfully blocked almost all
opposition Congressional members from entering Congress
November 27. As a result, the MAS was able to force through
legislation regarding the functioning of the Constituent
Assembly and the MAS pension program "Renta Dignidad" without
the opposition's presence (ref B).


7. (C) There are conflicting reports on how Abraham
Cuellar, alternate to Senate President Jose Villavicencio (UN
party, Pando),arrived in La Paz for the November 27
Congressional vote. Some press accounts claim Cuellar was
escorted by police from his home in Cobija, Pando to
Riberalta, Beni where he boarded a Bolivian air force plane
to fly to La Paz. Another press account states that Cuellar
road in an ambulance from Cobija to Riberalta and then flew
in the President's plane to La Paz. Cuellar's wife, has
denied both press accounts. According to an Embassy FSN in
Cobija, Cuellar flew on an air force Cessna from Cobija to
Riberalta, where he picked up another air force plane which
took him to La Paz. Pandinos angry with his splitting with
the UN party to vote with the MAS, torched Cuellar's house.


8. (SBU) La Prensa reported that the government paid for
Andres Heredia's -- alternate to Roger Pinto (PODEMOS, Pando)
) trip to La Paz from Brazil. Heredia denies the claim,
asserting that he paid for his own trip, and that he flew to
La Paz on November 25. Heredia apparently told La Prensa
that since he broke with PODEMOS in 2006, he now resides in
La Paz and Sao Paolo, Brazil, choosing not to live in his
Pando home for fear of attacks.

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EU Meets Evo to No Avail
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9. (U) European Union ambassadors met with President Evo
Morales this morning to deliver in person their November 25
communique in response to the violence in Sucre November
23-24. German Ambassador Erich Richter addressed the press
following the meeting hinting that the EU might be willing to
play a role in reducing tensions. Richter stated, "We are
willing to cooperate in this political process, but only if
parties here have the will. We are prepared to help as we
can, at the request of the parties (MAS and opposition)."


10. (C) The British Ambassador told our Ambassador he found
the two hour meeting with the President, the Vice President,
Minister of the Presidency and Minister of Justice
"unsatisfactory." There was no real response to the EU's
concerns about the evolving situation, instead both the
President and Vice President described a long history of
injustice in Bolivia and blamed the opposition for rejecting
the government's efforts to broker a deal. Evo referred to
"plots from abroad" but when asked by the Spanish Ambassador
if he had any proof, Morales did not. The Danes seemed
irritated that Evo kept praising Venezuelan assistance but
made no mention of Europe's aid.

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Comment
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11. (C) The President's response to the Europeans is perhaps
the most telling; even with a foreign audience that wishes to
diminish tensions, Evo sees no need to strike a more
conciliatory tone. That there is "no willingness to
negotiate" and that "more conflict is inevitable" are about
the only two points the MAS and opposition can agree on. End
Comment.
GOLDBERG