MAS MEMBER: "EARLY ELECTIONS IS THE SOLUTION"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LA PAZ 003138

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/2017
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: MAS MEMBER: "EARLY ELECTIONS IS THE SOLUTION"

Classified By: EcoPol Chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) In a meeting with Santa Cruz ruling MAS party City
Councilman Osvaldo "Chato" Peredo in Santa Cruz, Peredo told
Emboffs he is fearful of a civil war and is trying to do his
part to keep the peace. Peredo, who claims to talk on the
phone with President Evo Morales about every ten days,
proposes early elections, regardless if the new
constitutional draft passes or fails, as the solution to
Bolivia's political crisis. End Summary.

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FEAR OF CIVIL WAR
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2. (C) Former Che Guevara comrade turned regression
therapist Osvaldo "Chato" Peredo is Santa Cruz city's lone
MAS councilman. In a meeting with Emboffs on November 27 he
expressed his fear that Bolivia is edging toward a civil war
after the recent violence in Sucre. Peredo said he is doing
his best to "calm the situation as everyone loses in a civil
war." While he does not believe a civil war is inevitable,
if one did break out Peredo is confident that the opposition
would not win because of "the fact that the international
community would not support them."

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MAS MISTAKES
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3. (C) Peredo believes that the MAS has made some big
mistakes which has led to "the majority (in area) of the
country to be against the national government." Peredo, who
claims to be in phone contact with Evo Morales every ten days
and have a good relationship with Presidential Spokesperson
Alex Contreras, said it was a mistake for Evo not to have
supported departmental autonomy during the elections. The
biggest error that Evo is making, according to Peredo, is
that "his vision of the country is purely Andean, it does not
take into account Bolivia's different geographical regions."
Paredo complained that Evo's ministers are only concerned
about the altiplano (Bolivia's highlands) and not the other
sixty percent of the country's territory. Peredo also
decried "the extreme intolerance by both his MAS party and
the opposition." He cited the stick of dynamite thrown at
his offices earlier as an example of such intolerance.

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EARLY ELECTIONS, THE SOLUTION?
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4. (C) A solution to Bolivia's political deadlock is early
elections, according to Peredo. Peredo said that the
proposed-MAS constitution should be brought to a referendum
but that regardless of the results early elections should
then been called. Asked if he had discussed this idea with
Evo, Peredo responded affirmatively and said Evo agrees to
the idea of early elections. Peredo believes there are
mechanisms within the current constitution that would allow
Evo to call for early elections and allow him to run for
reelection. (Note: This scenario is complicated as it would
require the president, vice president, and president of the
senate (currently opposition) to all step down. Evo is
eligible to run again if he has served less than three years
of his five year term. End Note.) "If Evo is really doing
that bad of a job", said Peredo, "then bring it to a vote."

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COMMENT
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5. (C) Peredo helped the MAS make inroads in Santa Cruz
during the last election and at the beginning of Evo's term.
While still waiving the MAS banner, he has become frustrated
with his party. He was visibly upset when speaking about the
current situation and is worried about his personal safety.
A member of the leftist-guerrilla-intellectual wing of the
MAS, Paredo believes there is time for the MAS to correct its
mistakes and win back the majority of the population. Simply
bringing up the idea of early elections if the referendum on
the constitution fails shows some Masistas, and possibly Evo
himself, are considering every possible option for extending
their rule. End Comment.
GOLDBERG