MAS MEMBER: "EARLY ELECTIONS IS THE SOLUTION"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LA PAZ 003138 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/2017 TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL BL SUBJECT: MAS MEMBER: "EARLY ELECTIONS IS THE SOLUTION" Classified By: EcoPol Chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) In a meeting with Santa Cruz ruling MAS party City Councilman Osvaldo "Chato" Peredo in Santa Cruz, Peredo told Emboffs he is fearful of a civil war and is trying to do his part to keep the peace. Peredo, who claims to talk on the phone with President Evo Morales about every ten days, proposes early elections, regardless if the new constitutional draft passes or fails, as the solution to Bolivia's political crisis. End Summary. -------------- FEAR OF CIVIL WAR -------------- ¶2. (C) Former Che Guevara comrade turned regression therapist Osvaldo "Chato" Peredo is Santa Cruz city's lone MAS councilman. In a meeting with Emboffs on November 27 he expressed his fear that Bolivia is edging toward a civil war after the recent violence in Sucre. Peredo said he is doing his best to "calm the situation as everyone loses in a civil war." While he does not believe a civil war is inevitable, if one did break out Peredo is confident that the opposition would not win because of "the fact that the international community would not support them." -------------- MAS MISTAKES -------------- ¶3. (C) Peredo believes that the MAS has made some big mistakes which has led to "the majority (in area) of the country to be against the national government." Peredo, who claims to be in phone contact with Evo Morales every ten days and have a good relationship with Presidential Spokesperson Alex Contreras, said it was a mistake for Evo not to have supported departmental autonomy during the elections. The biggest error that Evo is making, according to Peredo, is that "his vision of the country is purely Andean, it does not take into account Bolivia's different geographical regions." Paredo complained that Evo's ministers are only concerned about the altiplano (Bolivia's highlands) and not the other sixty percent of the country's territory. Peredo also decried "the extreme intolerance by both his MAS party and the opposition." He cited the stick of dynamite thrown at his offices earlier as an example of such intolerance. -------------- EARLY ELECTIONS, THE SOLUTION? -------------- ¶4. (C) A solution to Bolivia's political deadlock is early elections, according to Peredo. Peredo said that the proposed-MAS constitution should be brought to a referendum but that regardless of the results early elections should then been called. Asked if he had discussed this idea with Evo, Peredo responded affirmatively and said Evo agrees to the idea of early elections. Peredo believes there are mechanisms within the current constitution that would allow Evo to call for early elections and allow him to run for reelection. (Note: This scenario is complicated as it would require the president, vice president, and president of the senate (currently opposition) to all step down. Evo is eligible to run again if he has served less than three years of his five year term. End Note.) "If Evo is really doing that bad of a job", said Peredo, "then bring it to a vote." -------------- COMMENT -------------- LA PAZ 00003138 002 OF 002 ¶5. (C) Peredo helped the MAS make inroads in Santa Cruz during the last election and at the beginning of Evo's term. While still waiving the MAS banner, he has become frustrated with his party. He was visibly upset when speaking about the current situation and is worried about his personal safety. A member of the leftist-guerrilla-intellectual wing of the MAS, Paredo believes there is time for the MAS to correct its mistakes and win back the majority of the population. Simply bringing up the idea of early elections if the referendum on the constitution fails shows some Masistas, and possibly Evo himself, are considering every possible option for extending their rule. End Comment. GOLDBERG