DEMOCRACY IN BOLIVIA: EVO'S WAY OR THE HIGHWAY

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 003118

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/29/2017
TAGS: PHUM PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: DEMOCRACY IN BOLIVIA: EVO'S WAY OR THE HIGHWAY


Classified By: EcoPol chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (C) Pro-MAS groups physically prevented opposition
members from entering Congress November 27. Without the
opposition's presence the ruling Movement Toward Socialism
(MAS) convened a session of Congress and passed new
legislation regarding the functioning of the Constituent
Assembly and "Renta Dignidad" (a MAS-proposed pension
program). Under the new Constituent Assembly legislation the
MAS can now call for the Assembly to meet wherever it sees
fit, and allows for the MAS to vote on its constitution
without opposition presence. The MAS' latest move is a clear
demonstration that its version of democracy excludes any
minority voices. The November 27 MAS political blitzkrieg
took the opposition off-guard and opposition groups are
struggling to come up with a coherent (and united) response.
We can expect more democratic redlines to be crossed as Evo
and the MAS are determined to push forward with their
constitution. End Summary.

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Exclusionary Democracy 101
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2. (SBU) The Plaza Murillo (the square in front of Congress)
and its environs were packed with pro-MAS protesters on
November 27, only allowing MAS Congressional members to enter
the Congressional palace. Without the opposition present,
the MAS pulled together a quorum using two "alternate"
Senators.


3. (C) Opposition Senator Oscar Ortiz (Santa Cruz, PODEMOS)
told emboff that he was within 30 meters of Congress when he
was blocked by pro-MAS protesters. A police officer on the
scene told him that the police could not ensure his safety if
he proceeded. According to Ortiz, an opposition colleague
appealed to Vice President Alvaro Garcia Linera (who presides
over Congress) to allow him safe entry to Congress. The Vice
President replied that the Senator would be welcome if he
supported the MAS' bills, but would find it difficult to
leave Congress if he opposed the MAS. Deputy Margoth Arriaga
(Beni, PODEMOS) told another emboff that as a women she
believed that the protesters would allow her to enter the
Congressional building. Arriaga apparently waited until 1:00
AM but was never permitted entry.


4. (SBU) PODEMOS leader Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga announced on
the evening news that the pro-MAS protesters had pictures of
opposition Congressional representatives with explicit
instructions not to let them into the Congress. Quiroga
placed the blame for the blockade squarely on President Evo
Morales stating, "How many parliamentarians does (Morales)
want lynched to consolidate his tyrannical regime?" Morales
had encouraged the blockade, even participating in a march
for his "Renta Dignidad" on November 26. Peter Maldonado of
the UN party -- who was prevented twice from entering
Congress -- used a little ingenuity to finally evade the
protesters. Maldonado explained how he bypassed the MAS
blockade stating, "I had to borrow overalls and a
construction helmet from a construction worker who was
working in the Plaza Murillo, and then I entered without
suspicion."

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In With the New Laws, Out with the Old
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5. (SBU) The new Constituent Assembly legislation permits
the Assembly President (Silvia Lazarte of the MAS) to convoke
the Assembly where ever she sees fit, even though previous
legislation only provided for Sucre as the seat of the
Assembly. The new legislation allows the MAS to convene the
Constituent Assembly in a MAS-friendly location such as
Oruro, or even El Alto. Vice President Alvaro Garcia Linera
attempted to rationalize the MAS' decision by arguing that it
did not change the Assembly's headquarters. Linera stated,
"It's a law that does not touch the Constituent Assembly's
headquarters . . . it continues to be Sucre . . . but to
guarantee that a peaceful development of the sessions, it
authorizes the Constituent Assembly president the power to
call sessions of the Constituent Assembly in another
department, if it is necessary."


6. (SBU) Although post has not seen the new legislation, we
understand that it permits the MAS to review its draft
constitution (approved November 24) without the presence of
the opposition. The MAS will now be able to review its
constitution article-by-article with two-thirds of the
members present, rather than two-thirds of the entire
Constituent Assembly. In other words, if the MAS manages to
lock-out the opposition from the Constituent Assembly's next
plenary session(s),as it did November 23-24, it could
approve in detail its draft constitution without any
opposition participation. The new legislation nullifies many
prior agreements negotiated between MAS and opposition, and
opens the way for the MAS to force through their constitution
to a public referendum. It is unclear whether an earlier
legislative requirement that the final ("en revision") vote
on the constitution must be approved by two-thirds of all
Constituent Assembly members is still in place.

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Renta Dignidad Version 2.0
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7. (SBU) The pro-MAS protesters at the Plaza Murillo on
November 27 had originally occupied the square as a means to
pressure the Senate to approve the MAS version of "Renta
Dignidad." Renta Dignidad a MAS proposed pension program,
takes money away from Prefecture (state) budgets to give all
seniors (60 years and older) a 200 boliviano per month
pension. The full Senate (including the opposition) had
approved Renta Dignidad on November 23, without touching
Prefecture budgets.

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Comment - Democracy On The Ropes
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8. (C) For the MAS, the fiction of legality and democracy
is the order of the day. Locking out the opposition from
Congress and the Constituent Assembly, and using its
political cannon fodder (campesino protesters) to enforce its
lock outs is the MAS' new form of democracy. The November 27
MAS-only vote, indicates that Evo and his entourage view
democracy more as a useful facade rather than as an essential
tool for implementing their political project. Whatever
their view of democracy is, the MAS has essentially
closed-off what little chance for dialogue remained after the
tragic events of November 23-24 in Sucre.


9. (C) Moving quickly and keeping the opposition
off-balance is apparently part of the MAS' strategy.
Opposition Congressional members have confided in emboffs
that they were caught off-guard by the MAS' maneuverings in
Congress. The opposition apparently failed to learn a lesson
from November 23-24, when the MAS unilaterally moved the
Constitution Assembly to a military base and approved its own
constitution "en grande" (general terms) without the
opposition's presence. Sources tell emboffs that the MAS
will reconvene the Constituent Assembly November 30 with the
intent of forcing through votes on its constitution as soon
as possible. December 14 is the date the Assembly is
supposed to finish; but, Evo likely wants the Assembly to
complete its work before Brazilian President Luis Ignacio
"Lula" Da Silva's December 10 visit. We are told that the
opposition is working to get Lula to cancel his upcoming
visit. Evo has called for a public event on December 15 so
he can "deliver" the new constitution to the people. Once
the Constituent Assembly approves the MAS constitution
article by article and then in full, all that is left is a
public referendum. By law there is a minimum of 90 days
before the referendum can be held. However, the MAS'
disregard for legal niceties means the referendum could very
well happen sooner.


10. (C) Since caught flatfooted, the opposition is
struggling to find a coherent response to the MAS' political
blitzkrieg. Some within PODEMOS are arguing that the party
should boycott the Assembly, arguing their attendance would
give legitimacy to the MAS' undemocratic actions. Others in
the opposition argue for attempting to attend the Assembly,
even if they are ultimately blocked, in order to show the
international community that the MAS has abandoned all forms
of dialogue and has turned its back on democracy. If allowed
to enter, given that it has more than the necessary
one-third, the opposition could at least try to block the
MAS' constitution. Unfortunately, according to an opposition
Constituent Assembly insider, the various opposition parties
are too busy fighting amongst themselves to come up with a
unified plan.


11. (C) President Morales and his MAS party are comfortable
changing the rules of the game whenever it suits them. The
MAS has sidelined the Constitutional Tribunal, meaning there
is no longer a judicial check on Evo's maneuverings. Even if
the court does resume functioning December 3, Evo will stack
it with interim appointments once the Senate goes on its
mandatory recess. The opposition plans to keep the Senate in
session as long as possible, to prevent Evo from making
interim appointments, but the Senate will eventually have to
take a recess.


12. (C) Meanwhile Evo and his followers have demonstrated a
willingness to do whatever it takes to move forward to adopt
their constitution and consolidate power. In addressing a
GRULAC dinner, hosted by the Cuban ambassador on November 26,
Evo made clear that he intends to push ahead. With no
judicial authority to declare Evo's moves illegal or
unconstitutional, the opposition is hoping that the
international community will become involved to dissuade
Morales from going any further. Opposition prefects in six
of Bolivia's nine departments could take even sterner
measures. End Comment.
GOLDBERG